Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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277 FXUS61 KBTV 082020 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER. TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S . && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. 00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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