Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 212019 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY. CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER 12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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