Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191214 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 714 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure extending from the upper Ohio Valley northeastward into New York and New England will bring seasonable and relatively quiet weather conditions today and through the weekend. Variably cloudy skies are expected. A few flurries are possible this morning, and across the northern mountains over the weekend. A more significant storm system is expected to affect the region by Monday night into Tuesday, with the potential for substantial mixed wintry precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 654 AM EST Friday...Just a few lingering snow showers remain across Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom at 1145Z as 700mb trough axis has shifted ewd into NH. Abundant low clouds remain in the wake of the shortwave trough, so main change with the sunrise update was to reduce PoPs thru the remainder of the morning. Still anticipating 2-m temperatures to climb to near freezing for afternoon highs. Previous Discussion...A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected today through Saturday. IR imagery at 08Z reveals a well- defined mid-level vort crossing northern NY and VT early this morning. However, overall moisture is limited with PW values only 0.2-0.3". Some limited influx of low-level moisture is occurring owing to low- level SW flow from Lake Ontario. This combined with seeder-feeder processes (with lower stratus deck in place) will result in some scattered snow showers to the region through mid- morning, but any accumulation should be limited to a half inch or less. Even after the mid-level shortwave passes to the east, lower stratus deck will generally remain in place with inversion 875-800mb layer helping to trap low- level moisture/clouds in place. Best chance for sunny breaks will be across the srn valleys. With 925mb temps warming to -6 to -7C, should see high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon. The south to southwesterly gradient flow picks up tonight with sfc low passing well to the north across central Quebec. Will see temps fall early, but then slowly warm after midnight with well-mixed conditions and general WAA regime setting up. Lows generally 20-25F, except a few degrees warmer in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Winds tonight generally around 10mph, except 10-20 mph in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with some gusts up to 30 mph possible from the Champlain Valley wwd across nrn NY. Weakly cyclonic mid-level flow along the Intl. border on Saturday may bring a few flurries or snow showers to the northern mtns, especially around Jay Peak. Otherwise, looking for mostly cloudy skies with generally west winds 10-15 mph. May see some downsloping resulting in best chance for sunny breaks in the srn Champlain Vly/wrn Rutland County, and also east of the Green Mtns into the CT River Valley. Continued moderation of temps expected, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 403 AM EST Friday...In the wake of the weak cyclonic mid-level flow, a rather weak cold front moves across the area during the day on Sunday. Outside of a few isolated snow showers, not much is expected out of this system except for a slight cooldown from Saturday`s high temperatures. Look for accumulations to be minimal and primarily across the higher elevations. Look for lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 20s and Highs on Sunday in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 403 AM EST Friday...Temperatures begin to warm again on Monday ahead of a fairly deep low moving across the Great Lakes and into Ontario sometime Tuesday. Models are coming together on timing, with the GFS still running slightly faster than ECMWF, but the overall idea remains the same. A warm front moves in later in the day on Monday into monday night. This is followed by a stronger cold front on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a widespread mixed precipitation event, as the cold air on the surface will be tough to scour out. General light snow to starts late on Monday, a good amount of sleet and perhaps areas of freezing rain early Tuesday morning before switching to rain during the day and ending as snow and some possible mix Tuesday night. Still, this far out locking into particular locations or amounts for sleet/freezing rain is a bit premature as the forecast will continue to change until we get closer to the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to be much cooler than last week`s event, hydro looks to be less of a concern but still bears monitoring as we still have several ice jams in place across the forecast area. After this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet and colder, though a snow shower or two are not out of the question. Look for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens through Tuesday and in the single digits beyond that. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Saturday...A moist west-southwesterly low-level flow from the Great Lakes is maintaining mainly MVFR ceilings across the TAF sites early this morning, with localized IFR (500` at 1205Z) at SLK due to upslope flow conditions. These ceilings should persist through the morning, with some gradual improvement this afternoon. Earlier snow showers are generally over at the TAF locations, with just a few lingering flurries across the Northeast Kingdom. Strengthening winds tonight will tend to scour out the stratus layer, and conditions will trend BKN070-090 after sunset this evening. Sustained winds generally S-SW 5-10 kts daylight hrs today, and 10-15kt tonight. Should see some localized gusts to 25kt at MSS/BTV as p-gradient strengthens overnight. With 925mb flow increasing to 50-55kt late tonight, may see some LLWS concerns at SLK/MPV after 07Z or so. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Monday Night: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN, Definite RA, Definite PL, Definite FZRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Banacos

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