Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231137 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 737 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to dominate through the weekend into next week while the remnants of post tropical cyclone Jose remain southeast of New England. Quiet and dry conditions continue through the weekend with some fog in the favored locations in the early mornings. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal average with potential record highs over this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Stop me if you`ve heard this one before. High pressure is still entrenched over the North Country. This is keeping the remnants of Post Tropical Cyclone Jose to the southeast of the New England and is not a factor for us right now. Much like last night, fog and low stratus is not widespread this morning, but areas do remain and will be gone shortly after sunrise. Saturday will feel less like the beginning of fall and more mid summer like 925mb temps of 21-22C will see valley locations pushing mid to upper 80s with sunny skies. This leads into Saturday night which will feel rather uncomfortable as low temperatures will remain in the 60s, to go along with dew points also in the 60s leading a warm and muggy evening the valleys. Sunday brings the next round of fair conditions and heat as 925mb temps rise to 23-24C leading to temps in the upper 80s with a few locations possibly reaching 90. Seeing some daily high temperature records fall is well within the realm of possibility. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Little change to the weather is expected for Sunday night and Monday with the upper ridge remaining in place over the area. Dew points will be on the high side so it will be another night of above normal temperatures and on Monday we are still looking at highs well into the 80s. The higher dew points on Monday will push heat index values into the lower 90s across the larger valleys (Saint Lawrence and Champlain). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track with a general flattening of the upper ridge Monday night through Wednesday. Warm temperatures aloft will continue to result in temperatures about 20 degrees above normal on Tuesday and about 15 degrees above normal on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes more west and southwest by Wednesday and this may result in an increased potential for isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. A greater likelihood of showers is expected for Thursday as an upper level trough of low pressure moves into the region. Once the trough passes to the east on Friday cooler and drier weather is expected. High temperatures will return to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. The possible exception might be some overnight fog and MVFR conditions at KMPV/KSLK. Light winds less than 10 knots are expected today. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Verasamy CLIMATE...BTV

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