Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231914 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more showers on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 128 PM EDT Sunday...Clear skies and light winds prevail for the rest of today with temperatures warming into the 60s. Building ridge of surface high pressure continues tonight with a surface low passing well north of the region across Quebec, increasing clouds for portions of the forecast area. Temperatures generally falling into the 30s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Cool and damp conditions expected...along with some breezy winds along the western slopes from Danby to Rutland to East Middlebury to Underhill. Still anticipating several waves of light rain to move from south to north across our fa with 1st round btwn 15z and 21z Tuesday and 2nd wave impacting our eastern/central cwa on btwn 09z and 15z Weds. Leading 5h vort and initial 850 to 500mb moisture quickly expands across our region on Tuesday...while developing south/southeast low level winds increase at 30 to 40 knots. The best winds associated with low level 925mb to 850mb se jet stay to our east...but still thinking a few gusts to 30 knots possible along the western slopes on Tuesday. The jet orientation will impact qpf fields with slightly higher amounts on se upslope regions and less across the eastern cpv/western slopes. General qpf will range between 0.05 and 0.25 for 1st round. Next round of precip is associated with tightly compacted closed mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and weak 1005mb low pres moving along the eastern seaboard. Latest guidance continues to show a sharp west to east precip gradient across our cwa...with minimal qpf west and up to another 0.50 or so eastern/southeast sections on Weds. Based on low level jet orientation/placement and pws near 1.0" this looks reasonable. Have mention likely to cat pops east and tapered to chc west on Weds with a sharp gradient in qpf fields. Temps will also be depend upon clouds/precip with highs tues only in the m/u 40s se section to mid/upper 50s nw areas...and near 70f SLV to upper 50s CT River Valley on Weds. Lows hold mainly in the 40s on Tuesday night with clouds/precip.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Much above normal temps expected on Thursday ahead of approaching cold front...with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated Thursday aftn/night...before cooler air arrives by next week. Mid/upper level ridge builds ahead of developing s/w energy over the great lakes on Thurs...placing our cwa in the warm sector. The slower fropa arrival allows for 925mb temps to warm between 20- 22c...with 850mb temps near 15c on breezy south winds. Have gone 3 to 5 degrees above superblend with highs mainly m/u 70s mountain valleys to lower 80s warmer valleys away from Lake Champlain. GFS continues to show an axis of instability ahead of short wave energy and cold front with CAPE values btwn 800-1200 j/kg. Still some uncertainty with timing of fropa and associated impacts. Cooler air eventually arrives late Friday into Saturday...with a sharp boundary draped somewhere across the ne conus/mid Atlantic states next weekend. This will produce a sharp divide in warm/unstable air to our south and cooler/drier air to our north...with unsettled wx located near the boundary. Plenty of uncertainty on exact placement of boundary and potential impacts at days 6 and 7...so kept mention of chc pops with temps very close to superblend values...mainly 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail with generally light winds, except in the St Lawrence Valley with gusts 15-20kts in channeling effects. Clouds increase from the north overnight, but generally expected to remain VFR cigs. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...KGM

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