Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 162349 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 649 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA... TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...EVENSON

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