Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 031118 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 718 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR IS RATHER QUIET AT THIS TIME. DESPITE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE FAVORED LOCALES...AND WILL KEEP IN A MENTION EARLY TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMP PROFILE SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...APEX OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS THOUGH ARE FOR A VERY THIN LINE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS SO THINKING THIS REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST THOUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS DO DROP OF A LITTLE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH, BUT ONLY BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. LOOKING OUT FURTHER IN THE FORECAST, IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. CERTAINLY WAY TOO FAR OUT TO ZERO IN ON THE EXACT DETAILS, BUT A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM VLIFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN VFR DECK. THEREAFTER, A SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AT MPV/SLK, AND POSSIBLE AT MSS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.