Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090757 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 357 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TODAY AS LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON A WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ONLY 500-1000 J/KG. NO ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONED WITH THE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH DECENT MIXING AS INDICATED BY RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS...AND MID LEVEL COOLING COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 50S...SO IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE THAN YESTERDAY. 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10 TO +13C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER 80S IN CONNECTICUT AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS SERIES OF VORTS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH UPPER TROUGH. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850 MB TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A RATHER COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 45 TO 55...EXPECT A MODERATING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO SEASONAL NORMS UNDER SUN FILLED SKIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH BEGINS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER. ATTENDING SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SIGNALING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL WITH THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR THE RE- DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK SEASONAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS CLEARING AFTER 00-04Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ABATING AFTER 00Z. PRECIP GONE FOR TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM KRUT TO KMPV EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z MON...MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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