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102
FXUS61 KBTV 011741
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog will cause poor visibility this morning especially in
low spots away from Lake Champlain. Cloudy conditions will persist
today with more chances of light rain tonight into Thursday.
Changeable weather will continue into the weekend with a series of
weak fronts moving through the region and brief periods of high
pressure keeping temperatures near or slightly above seasonal
averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 141 PM EDT Wednesday...Clouds continue to lift and break
up this afternoon with breaks of sunshine helping to warm temps
into the mid 50s to lower 60s. An isolated shower can`t be ruled
out but overall should be a dry afternoon.

A quick moving, weak low pressure will drop out of Canada
tonight increasing rain chances mainly towards the Canadian
border and down the Greens into Thursday; light QPF is expected
with northern Greens picking up around 0.33" and sprinkles to
generally up to 0.1" elsewhere. With cold air locked well
northward, airmasses moving through the region will generally be
continental originating from the central Plains. This will keep
temperatures well moderated with highs generally in the upper
50s to low 60s across northern New York and northern Vermont
with low 60s to around 70 degrees today and Thursday
respectively for southern Vermont. Lows tonight will be mild, in
the 40s to low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Low stratus will linger Thursday night
behind a weak shortwave, but any precipitation should move out by
then. Lows will fall into the 40s across the region. Ridging will
briefly build in for Friday and will keep the weather dry. However,
a surface high located over Atlantic Canada will keep the region in
easterly flow and will help the low clouds linger into the day.
These clouds should break sometime during the day on Friday and the
sun may briefly able to come out. However, high clouds ahead of an
occluded front will quickly be moving in from the west so any sun
will likely be filtered and short-lived. Temperatures should still
warm up pretty far, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s and
low 70s. This is supported by 925 mb temperatures generally between
8-13 celsius. However, models have been trending down slightly with
the temperatures and are now lingering the cloud cover longer so had
to bring down highs slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Active but relatively unimpactful
weather will prevail through the weekend into next week. Overall,
any cold air will be locked up to the north and zonal flow will
prevent any significant storm systems from developing. This will
bring some chances for showers and keep the temperatures at or above
normal for the time of year. An occluded front will slowly move
through over the weekend and bring some showers to the region. There
is still model uncertainty in the timing so kept PoPs chance for
now. The models have generally been trending to a later frontal
passage, with most GFS and Euro ensemble members now having it pass
through Saturday night or Sunday. The trend is keeping Saturday
drier, particular across Vermont. Regardless of the timing, QPF will
be relatively low and should not pose a flooding threat. A trailing
cold front should pass through after and it will bring the chance
for a few more additional showers, but it will be falling apart as
it moves into the region. Therefore, the showers and cold air behind
it look unimpressive. Seasonal and drier weather looks to dominate
the beginning of the week before shower chances return mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 18Z Thursday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR currently will
trend to SCT/BKN VFR at all sites this afternoon into the
evening hours. An upper level disturbance then lowers ceilings
and vsby back down to MVFR/IFR after 07-09Z Thursday in
scattered to numerous showers which persist through the
remainder of the period. In addition, some MVFR/IFR BR/FG is
possible at KMPV/KEFK before the rain arrives from 06-09Z. Winds
will be light and variable this afternoon and tonight, trending
westerly on Thursday at 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff