Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1241 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1216 PM EST THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN AGAIN BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR FA. CURRENT TEMP HERE AT BTV IS ONLY 12F...WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0F AND -10F. SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB CAM SHOWING A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP NEAR -22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF 8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. 06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...LAHIFF

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