Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 172048 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building into the Northeast this morning will provide the North Country with tranquil weather conditions for the first half of the weekend with plentiful sunshine and highs in the low to mid 30s. Tonight, an area of low pressure moving from the Delmarva peninsula and southeast of New England will bring light snow to mainly eastern portions of Vermont with light accumulations likely. A significant warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week, along with increasing chances for rain. Near record high temperatures are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s and possibly lower 60s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1238 PM EST Saturday...No significant changes for 1230 update, going forecast is in good shape. High clouds are moving into the area. Tonight: The combination of a passing weak upper trough and some increased low/mid level moisture associated with low pressure passing southeast of the benchmark will spread some light snow into much of eastern Vermont. A very progressive mid- level flow will track these features out to sea quickly by sunrise Sunday, so it`ll be hard to get much accumulation, but a solid 1-3" can be expected from the spine of the Green Mountains eastward with the highest amounts across Rutland and Windsor counties. Clouds and snow will keep overnight temps mild, ranging through the 20s. Sunday: Aforementioned low pressure and shortwave trough exit quickly offshore and are replaced by upper ridging and surface high pressure building in over the mid-Atlantic states. Lingering low level moisture combined with blocked NW flow will keep some scattered mountain snow showers going through the first half of the day, but by the afternoon expect to see coverage diminishing and some breaks of sun developing. Highs will once again rise above normal ranging through the 30s, but a brisk NW wind gusting up towards 20 mph at times will make it feel a little colder, at least through early afternoon before winds diminish towards sunset. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 347 PM EST Saturday...High pressure will continue to exit to our east on Monday, placing the region under deep southwest flow. Hence we`ll see increasing warm advection and moisture, leading to a period of precipitation Monday and Monday night. It`ll take a bit for the dry air at the surface to saturate, so precipitation will mostly hold off until Monday afternoon, and temperatures will be above freezing in most areas by then. So expect most locations will see the precipitation start out as rain, though a bit of snow may mix in across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Greens at the onset. The rain will be steadiest overnight Monday night as a warm front lifts across the region. This will also allow temperatures to rise much of the night after a brief drop in the evening east of the Greens. Overall, 24 hour rainfall amounts will be about a quarter to a half inch, with the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys seeing the least due to shadowing in the southwest flow.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 347 PM EST Saturday...The focus for this term becomes very warm, near record warm temperatures, along with potential rainfall placement. The warm front looks to become nearly stationary north of the Saint Lawrence Valley through Wednesday morning, with waves of low pressure traveling along it. This will bring periods of rain, particularly across northern sections. There are still some model differences in frontal placement and the extent of the associated precipitation, but the consensus of the guidance shows 0.50-1.50 inches will be possible through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts along the border. In addition, temperatures will warm considerably through the period, approaching record highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. With temperatures well into the 50s to around 60, and Tuesday night`s low staying well above freezing, runoff from snowmelt and rainfall will be a concern. See the hydrology section for more details. The mild spell comes to an end later Wednesday with a cold front quickly crossing the region. Cooler and drier air will return under high pressure through Friday. However, temperatures will remain above seasonal normals, with highs remaining in the 30s to around 40 both Thursday and Friday. The threat of precipitation returns Friday night and Saturday with another surge of warmer air, though not nearly as mild as what we`ll see earlier in the week. Note that there are considerable differences in model solutions for next weekend, so have stayed close to a model blend to account for the uncertainty.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Increasing cirrus from west to east through the day continues. After 00Z Sunday, low clouds and snow will advance from the south associated with coastal low pressure, lowering ceilings to MVFR at all sites except KPBG and KMSS, and vsby to IFR at KMPV and KRUT. Snow exits after 09-10Z with vsby lifting to VFR, but MVFR ceilings remain. Winds trend southerly after 14Z at 5-15 knots. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Definite RA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 355 AM EST Saturday...A 48-hour period of anomalously warm temperatures will affect the region from Monday through Wednesday. Periods of rainfall, modest winds and dewpoint temperatures climbing into the 40s to lower 50s will foster rapid snowmelt across the entire area. Still some variability shown with this afternoon`s modeled 48-hr QPF, though the general consensus is for two day totals averaging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, heaviest north. Taking this all into account, modest to substantial river rises look highly probable starting Monday night and continuing through Wednesday, supported by NAEFS/SREF MMEFS hydrograph data. While widespread open water flooding is not expected, several rivers may approach minor flood. Given the numerous ice jams in place from the substantial thaw this past January, localized high water/flood concerns near these features will also remain a concern. As future data helps hone the forecast in the coming 36-hours, a Flood Watch will likely be necessary for most if not all of the forecast area during this period.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Lahiff/Neiles HYDROLOGY...JMG

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