Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161725 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 125 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE 24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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