Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200342 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1042 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will continue to linger across the North Country tonight...especially in the mountains. However...any accumulations will be light. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest. Relatively dry weather is expected on Monday...but temperatures will be below normal. Southerly flow quickly develops on Tuesday and sunshine...dry weather...and high temperatures in the 40s to around 50 returns to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
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As of 1038 PM EST Sunday...Low-level CAA continues late this evening within moderately strong WNWLY flow regime across NY and northern New England. There is an embedded shortwave trough evident in IR imagery across sern Ontario and nrn NY, which will continue to migrate ewd along the intl border over the next several hours. Still seeing some intermittent light snow shower activity and scattered flurries associated with this feature and moist upslope flow...mainly across the Adirondacks and Green Mtns. However, any additional accumulation will be light across the mtns, generally a coating to 1". Otherwise, looking at overcast conditions with just a few flurries and continued moderately strong wnwly winds. May see a few breaks toward daybreak as shortwave trough passes to the east of our longitude. Forecast remains in good shape with just minor adjustments for hourly trends with this update. Previous discussion follows. Previous Discussion... Surface low and cold front are now north and east of the area this afternoon. Low level cold air advection continues with west to northwest flow with temperatures holding steady in the mid 20s to lower 30s in northern New York and in the mid 20s to mid 30s across Vermont. Thus any precipitation will be in the form of snow showers. In terms of precipitation...the vertical depth of moisture has decreased making for any precipitation to be on the light side. Webcams show this to be the case as well. In addition...west to northwest low level flow is helping to focus some of the precipitation in the mountains. Of note is the the increasing Froude numbers along the west slopes of the Green Mountains which suggests any upslope precipitation will be carried more downstream on the east side of the Greens. However...any additional snow amounts tonight will generally be an inch or less. Should still see quite a bit of cloud cover tonight with lows getting down into the mid teens to the mid 20s. On Monday...we remain in west to northwest flow in the morning with the flow gradually backing to the west throughout the day. This may allow some lake effect moisture to our south to lift up into our area...but may only affect parts of the northern Adirondacks and the southern half of Vermont. Below normal temperatures continue with highs generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EST Sunday...Flow continues to back to the southwest through the period. Any lake effect moisture Monday night would lift north but tends to dry out so only have some slight chance mention over northern New York. With the flow aloft becoming more southwest warm air advection should take place and can see temperatures rising overnight. Have made the low earlier in the night with rising temperatures overnight. The warm air advection continues on Tuesday with a good deal of sunshine...dry weather...and highs getting back into the 40s to around 50. Upper trough appears to be moving slower and thus the first half of Tuesday night will remain dry before precipitation moves in after midnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 324 PM EST Sunday...Primarily a very broad cyclonic flow pattern for the period with very minor disturbances and slight roller coaster of temperatures but largely below normal. There is still an outside threat of a coastal storm Wed-Wed ngt but most current indications are keeping this a mid-atlantic and this far enough away with no impacts for our area but still worth monitoring for the next few days. Wednesday: Cold front exiting region with lingering snow showers thru mid-late morning then gradual improvement for holiday travel. Temperatures pretty much holding steady or falling slightly during the day with highs in the 30s/40. Thanksgiving: Quiet with surface high in control but the eventual approach of another northern stream shortwave by Thursday night. Currently dry with temperatures in the 30s. Thursday Night/Friday: Much of the energy with northern stream shortwave is in Canada but can`t rule out some isold/sct snow showers, especially in the mountains. Lows in the 20s and Highs in the 30s. Friday night-Sunday: We start off dry Friday evening with surface high and some shortwave ridging but that quickly gives way to next upstream system. Another shortwave and surface reflection moving north of Great Lakes and international border with some decent warm- air advection ahead of it for light snow/snow showers toward Saturday morning then main energy shifts NE, however trof axis remains across region with several replenishing shortwaves moving through into Monday. Therefore it will be generally unstable, cold with snow showers. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings as cyclonic west northwesterly flow continues over the region. Mountain showers may drop visibilities at SLK down to IFR as light snow should continue off and on through about 05z. Expect gusty winds as steep lapse rates promote mixing with gusts between 15-23kts at all TAF sites. By daybreak Monday anticipate all sites improving to VFR ceilings while the gusty winds remain. Late in the day Monday afternoon and evening SLK/MSS may become impacted by a lake effect snow band that will be lifting towards the north. With potential for varied intensity and timing, the forecast just mentions lowered ceilings rather than specific detail about visibilities. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 1125 AM EST Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for today. Winds have turned to the northwest and are in the 25 to 35 knot range with gusts approaching 40 knots. This will create significant wave heights in the 2 to 5 foot range with a moderate chop. These conditions may prove hazardous to those operating small craft, especially on the eastern half of the broad lake and in Vermont bays/inlets with westerly exposures. Gusty northwest winds will abate slightly later this evening into Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Deal MARINE...Evenson/JMG

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