Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191134 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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