Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 042350 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 750 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 714 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. FEEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...OTHERWISE ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID- LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES THE PERIOD BUT EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY AT KMPV-KSLK BETWEEN 07-12Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL AROUND 05Z. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AR 05-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RESUME OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT 05-15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR COMING TO AN END. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV/KSLK.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE AGAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MV/SLW EQUIPMENT...JMG

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