Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262359 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 659 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A WEST WIND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 659 PM EST FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 18Z GFS MOS POPS LOW OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED TO GET RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE BASED ON THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST FRIDAY...VERY QUIET WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL OR MOISTURE PROFILES FROM LAST NIGHT. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL BE BUILDING WITH WESTERLY AROUND SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS OR NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S MTNS TO L/M 30S MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 40F SLV/CPV. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR FA...AS 1000 TO 500MB 540 LINE LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS LLVL WAA ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WITH GOOD MIXING WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 50F WITH FULL SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND LIMITED MIXING LVLS WL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS 30S MTNS TO M40S VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. ALSO...A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MTNS AFT 18Z SATURDAY...GIVEN RH PROFILES AND UPSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLW. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRNT..ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS WL CAUSE SHADOWING OF PRECIP FIELDS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...AS DEEPER RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH APPROACHES OUR CWA...THE BEST 5H SUPPORT IS LIFTING NORTHWEST OF OUR FA...AND RH FIELDS WEAKEN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM...ONLY A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS. THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WL BE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE VALLEYS. LATEST GUIDANCES SHOWS LLVL CAA LAGGING SEVERAL HRS BEHIND INITIAL RIBBON OF MOISTURE...SO AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MTNS...BEST MOISTURE IS EAST OF OUR CWA. A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WL TREND TWD THE WARMEST GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SLV/CPV...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO M40S. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z MONDAY. THE LACK OF A SHARP BOUNDARY/THERMAL GRADIENT AND LIMITED QPF WL PREVENT ICY ROADS FROM DEVELOPING. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MIXING OF WINDS WHICH WL HELP TO DRY LLVLS OUT. WL MENTION EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS...BUT TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 10S SUMMITS TO MID 20S MIDSLOPES AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE MTNS...AS LLVL CAA HELPS SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLW. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M/U 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 328 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR TO THE NORTH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM -12C ON MONDAY TO -16 TO -18C ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX SURFACE TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZER. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCE POPS EXTEND INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND CLOUDS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME BREAKS 18Z-24Z TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES, REINFORCING BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYER. KSLK THE LOWEST CIGS WITH CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SEEING VFR CIGS. SOME DOWNSLOPE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CREATE PATCHES OF VFR SCT THAT SHOULD FILL IN AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TODAY WILL WEAKEN IN RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO SOUTH TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS MIXING/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHERN NY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR IN VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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