Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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303 FXUS61 KBTV 202324 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 724 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected. The next chance for widespread rainfall comes Tuesday of next week, as a slow moving low pressure system shifts into the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 722 PM EDT Friday...No change made to current forecast as 1025mb high pres over western ny/pa is providing our cwa with clear skies and light westerly winds. Given very dry airmass in place...temps will drop quickly this evening with lows ranging from near 30f slk/nek to l/m 40s warmer cpv/slv. all covered well in current grids. Late October weather doesn`t get much better than this, with strong high pressure over most of the eastern CONUS dominating the North Country`s through the weekend. Clear night skies and abundant sunshine during the days can be expected, along with seasonably mild temperatures. Tonight will be the coolest night through the weekend as the high settles overhead and winds decouple leading to temps ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s, but as southerly flow strengthens Saturday/Saturday night as the high shifts offshore, lows will warm to mainly in the 40s for tomorrow night. Highs Saturday follow suit warming into the upper 60s to low 70s, a good 15 degrees above normal for late October!
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week. This will bring a more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours as a dome of high pressure continues to dominate the North Country`s weather. Winds will be under 10 knots and variable through the period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special weather statement for today to bring awareness of breezy winds and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday across northern NY and VT. Expect northwest winds today between 10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff/Verasamy FIRE WEATHER...BTV EQUIPMENT...BTV

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