Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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621 FXUS61 KBTV 252017 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 417 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday. This will keep quite a bit of moisture over the area tonight through Wednesday morning with more rain showers expected. Improving conditions develop Wednesday afternoon and especially into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and especially on Thursday with highs in the 70s to around 80.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 417 PM EDT Tuesday...first wave of light rain is lifting northward across the area late this afternoon with a brief break in the precipitation over southern Vermont. Second area of showers moves northward into the area tonight and this batch of precipitation should produce a bit more in the way of rainfall...but still generally looking at a quarter inch or less tonight. Expect plenty of clouds around with low generally in the 40s to around 50. On Wednesday...the upper low to our south that has been bringing the moisture up into our region moves east and takes a bulk of the precipitation with it. Improving conditions are expected with drier weather moving in and some decrease in cloud cover. Highs should generally be in the 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 417 PM EDT Tuesday...Upper ridge builds into the region Wednesday night and Thursday with upper trough well to the west and upper low to our east still moving slowly. This should bring a period of warmer and drier weather starting Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Should see a good deal of sun on Thursday and highs in the 70s to around 80. Looks like ridge axis moves east Thursday night and this will allow a cold front and some showers to move into the region late Thursday night. Lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 417 PM EDT Tuesday...No significant weather is expected through the period. Generally dry on Friday with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s...then an upper trough passes just to our north on Saturday and brings a chance of showers to the region. Northwest flow aloft on the backside of this system will bring cooler temperatures for Sunday...but upper ridge building in on Monday suggests a warming trend develops. However...this will be short lived as another upper trough moves into the region for Monday night and Tuesday bringing more clouds and showers back into the area.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...currently have a band of light rain pushing northward across the region. Despite the precipitation, VFR conditions continue with ceilings generally 4000-7000ft and no obstructions to visibility. Have some gusty southeast surface winds (25-30kt) at some locations, primarily western sides of mountains. Thus far, RUT is mainly seeing those winds, though occasional gusts are reaching BTV as well. Pretty much little change through 22z or so. Expect another batch of showers to move in for the evening/overnight. Also suspect lower ceilings that are currently found south of the region will move northward as well. Much of the guidance indicates MVFR ceilings to become pretty widespread after 06z. IFR ceilings are also possible for eastern Vermont (eg: MPV). Expect some light fog to also develop at many TAF locations, providing MVFR visibilities. Precipitation should pretty much finish up by 12z or so, with only a slow progress toward VFR for the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Nash

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