Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 801 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND AREAS SOUTH. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ON TUESDAY THOUGH MOSTLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. 18Z GFS RUN ALSO SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TO BE COMING TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT... AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER QPF TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY...EXPECT OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY TO 20-30KTS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST AS AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DRIER BUT MODELS STILL SUGGEST PWATS AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL CAN EXPECT SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW REMAIN IN THE 60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M/U 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 450 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF VERMONT BY MORNING. PWATS WILL FALL TO 1-1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST PWATS BEING OVER SERN VT. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS AS DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR LAKE HURON LIFTS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME DEBATE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE FRONT WILL LIFT...BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY IN MUCH LESS CLOUDY SKY WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...FROM ADKS ACROSS THE SRN CPV AND CENTRAL VT. THIS AFFECTS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AS NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...EDGING 1000 J/KG OF CAPE INTO SRN/CENTRAL VT WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4. HAVE INCLUDED CHC OF THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE MID AFTERNOON. BUT NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S-L80S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THINGS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS SFC TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD. COME EARLY TUESDAY...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE STREWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOISTENING S/SW FLOW. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT FURTHER INTO THE REGION. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NW...DELAYING THE APPROACH OF 250MB JET TIL TUESDAY NGT. AT LOWER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND INCREASED MOISTURE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS VT AS IT WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BEING SLOW TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THREAT OF SVR LOW. BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10 KM WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES IN AREAS MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH VT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP TO SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MUCH OF FA AT 00Z MONDAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRUT THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS BUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z KMSS...KSLK... KRUT...AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. AFT 12Z...VFR EXPECTED WITH SHOWER/TSORM ACTIVITY LIKELY SOUTH OF FA DURING AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONSNIGHT WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND AT KMSS/KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

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