Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290152 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 952 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 949 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE. RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING NOW THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 711 PM TUESDAY... FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A CLOUDY BUT RELATIVELY MILD EVENING. A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WON`T GO FAR OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT LOWS 45-55F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THERE HAVE BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS...SO EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WITH THE SHOWERS AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE SHOWERS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THUS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WE ARE LOOKING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M. FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING. SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON MARINE...RJS

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