Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202359 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 759 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to dominate into the beginning of next week while Hurricane Jose remains southeast of New England. Expect overall quiet and dry conditions with fog in the morning. Temperatures will be well above seasonal average temperatures throughout the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 734 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes for the evening update. Going forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion follows. High pressure will keep any significant effects from Hurricane Jose at bay to the southeast of the area. A tricky fog and stratus forecast tonight as northerly winds bring a little drier air into the region and could be enough to prevent fog in some spots but could be some stratus with enough flow in the boundary layer. Otherwise with mostly clear skies and rather high dew points have continued the idea of patchy fog and stratus once again, especially in the protected valleys. Overnight lows in the 50`s with the Champlain Valley remaining in the low 60s. Thursday will be more of the same overall with few clouds and dry quiet conditions overall. 925 mb temps are just about the same as today, perhaps a degree cooler 17-18 deg C, but really no change from today with highs will again be in the upper 70s with a few valley locations again reaching 80. Thursday night looks to be a little cooler with clear skies and calm winds again leading to patchy dense fog. Lows ranging from the lower 40s in the cold spots to mid 50s near Lake Champlain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 PM EDT Wednesday...The latest set of guidance shows nothing different for what to expect for Friday. It will not feel like the first day of fall. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep us high and dry. Jose will remain well to our south. With 925mb temperatures around 17C, we should easily reach the mid-upper 70s in most locations. A light north/northeast flow will advect in some drier low level air, so dewpoints will be lower than we`ve seen recently. That will set the stage for an excellent radiational cooling night. Lows Friday night will bottom out in the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 354 PM EDT Wednesday...Who is ready for some record breaking heat this weekend? If you raised your hand, then you`ll be happy. For those that want cool fall weather, sorry. 12z guidance offering nothing different that what we`ve been seeing for days for Saturday to Monday. Basically strong high pressure with increasing warmth each day. The high will also keep whatever Jose slowly diminishes to well to our south. So no rain, and hardly any clouds. 925mb temperatures will be around 21C on Saturday, then near 23C on Sunday and Monday. This indicates temperatures will be well into the 80s. It`s possible that Sunday and Monday we see a few locations flirting with 90F. Again, I did adjust the forecast highs up a couple of degrees from the guidance blend to align with the warmest of the guidance. For most of the locations we have long term records for, the projected highs will be at or above current records on each of those days. See the bottom of this discussion product for the Climate section detailing some of the records. The situation gets a little more unclear for Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS is showing what the ECMWF showed yesterday (but not today) that the moisture of Jose`s remnants drift north into our region for Tuesday. The latest ECWMF run keeps us dry, so I trended PoPs down from what we had and what the guidance blend gave. By that time we`ll also be watching Maria wander northward off the east coast, on a track pretty similar to what Jose took. Still looks as Maria will not come this far north as the ridge over us is mighty strong. However per the 12z GFS and ECMWF runs, they indicate that Maria does try to buck into it, while at the same time an upper trough and associated cold front try to break it down from the west. Net result in both models is that a more moist southeast flow advects moisture into the region on Wednesday. At this point there is so much uncertainty with regard to Maria`s evolution and it`s interaction with the large scale flow that from a forecasting standpoint it`s best to just stick with a generic model blend that far out -- which will indicate increasing clouds and chances for showers. Still looks well above normal for temperatures even into mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 00Z Friday...VFR through 04z with northerly winds around 10 kts diminishing around sunset as high pressure noses down from Canada and blends with the circulation from Jose offshore. Looks like another round of fog again tonight after 04Z and dissipating by 14z. Most confident at KSLK and KMPV but could see some fog or low stratus vicinity any of the other sites including BTV. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Friday: VFR. Patchy FG. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Mon Sep 25 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Neiles/Sisson SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Neiles/Sisson CLIMATE...

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