Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311044 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER TERMINALS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW EQUIPMENT...JMG

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