Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200550 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Most areas will remain dry today and Friday...but there may be a few showers around each afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. More dry weather is expected on Saturday with temperatures right around seasonal normals. A pattern change will take place Sunday into Monday as an upper level trough of low pressure moves in and increases clouds as well as precipitation chances.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...Isolated showers earlier over northern New York have dissipated and remainder of the night should remain dry. As a result...have removed any mention of showers for the early morning hours. Should see some fog again and have added to the favored locations through the early morning hours as well. Rest of forecast in great shape and no changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Thursday will be mainly dry though another approaching upper level trough will bring more clouds and a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms later in the day with warm advection returning. Some very limited instability is forecast with CAPE 500-1500 J/kg but the coverage is very spotty and the PoPs are rather low so again not . The best instability is forecast continues to remain well south and west of our area. Flow shifts west to northwest aloft becomes established over the area Thursday night. Showers activity, what little of it there is, should come to an end after midnight. Temperatures overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s with highs tomorrow a little bit cooler in the lower to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 229 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be building into the region as west to northwest flow develops aloft. Drying air should lead to some breaks in the clouds during the day which will lead to temps warming into the mid 80s for the valley locations and around 80 in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. With dry air all around I anticipate mostly quiet weather so I`ve opted to drop even the slight chance wording. Its possible we could see a stray mountain shower but nothing of any impact. In the evening hours we should still be under warm air advection and so our evening lows will continue to be slightly above normal with temps falling to the mid to low 60s. Saturday looks to be a wonderful summer North Country day as high pressure crests just to our northwest. We should see some scattered cloud cover but the sensible weather will be quiet. The cloud cover should be enough to keep temps just on the cooler side with highs in the 70s to near 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 229 PM EDT Wednesday...As we end the weekend the flow aloft will transition from northwesterly to more southerly ahead of an advancing low pressure system. We will see clouds increase as a surface boundary with that low pressure system lifts to the north. Moisture advection increases quickly and the chance for showers increase Sunday into Monday. PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.6 inches but not enough to be overly concerned. Showers will move through with the best chance on Monday morning. The best forcing is to our south but there are enough dynamics to support the idea of a rumble of thunder Sunday night through Monday morning. The upper level trough will swing through late Monday into Tuesday and so chances for shower will continue until the surface front clears the North Country Tuesday afternoon. With the persistent cloud cover and continued chances for rain, our day time temps will be slightly below normal through the early portion of the workweek while our overnight lows should be around normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Friday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. The only exception will be for some early morning low clouds and fog at KMSS...KSLK...and KMPV where LIFR to VLIFR conditions are expected through about 12z. KPBG may see some IFR conditions mainly due to fog through 12z. Once the fog ends the rest of the day and evening should be relatively quiet. There may be a few showers popping up in the afternoon...especially over eastern New York in response to the development of a lake breeze. This activity will drift east based on the flow pattern. Have mention of vicinity showers at KPBG...KBTV...and KRUT between 16z and 22z. Despite the potential for showers at these locations...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will generally be light and variable. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Evenson

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