Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161947 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A deep layer ridge will bring continued pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions to the North Country during the next 5 to 7 days. Light winds and clear skies will lead to nocturnal fog, which could be locally dense Sunday and Monday mornings across the valleys of central and eastern Vermont, and within the northern Adirondack region. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s in valley locations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 146 PM EDT Saturday...A pleasant afternoon underway with just some fair wx Cu dotting the higher terrain and temperatures reaching the upr 70s to mid 80s (10-15deg above the climo avg). Winds are light and variable around sfc high pressure, centered at 18Z across wrn NY. It is moderately humid, with 2-m dewpoints in the low- mid 60s. With mid-level subsidence, not anticipating any convective showers this afternoon, and the daytime cu should dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle tonight. Winds will be light and variable and driven by local terrain effects overnight. The high dewpoints and clear skies should again yield some locally dense fog in the normally favored valleys of central/ern VT and within the nrn Adirondack region as well. Will see patchy fog areawide overnight, especially 06-12Z. Low temperatures tonight generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s, or around 10deg above the 30-year climo mean. Will see very similar weather on Sunday. The 12Z NAM shows winds less than 10kts at BTV from the sfc up thru 30kft, so quiet conditions under the ridge. Will again see daytime cu, but doesn`t appear shower activity will develop with general subsidence regime aloft keeping cu moderate over the ridgetops. 850mb temps bump upward 1-2C, so should see quite a few valley locations into the mid- 80s Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Weak upper level ridging will give way to increasing moisture as easterly flow begins ahead of Jose. The additional moisture will begin to interact with a trough advancing through the Great Lakes region and lead to increased cloud cover across the North Country on Monday. The thermal ridge will stay in place however and so without a change in airmass, expect another day in the 80s although a few degrees cooler than Sunday due to the cloud cover. Monday night will be a rinse and repeat of fog for anywhere not impacted by the light rain with Jose. Lows overnight will be remain still a couple of degrees above normal with temps only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Trends and consensus of the guidance continue to indicate Jose will track just over the 70-40 benchmark late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This scenario would allow for light showers to affect eastern and southern VT with no major impacts to the rest of the forecast area. There are some track changes as we head into Wednesday but this is largely do the fact the steering flow is weak. So at this point the models will subject to moderate errors due the intensity of the system. Either way, impacts to the North Country remain minimal and rain is expected to come to an end by Wednesday evening. Behind that, ridging will build into the region, closing out the week with dry conditions.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR with light orographically driven winds with high pressure in place. Pattern is again favorable for nocturnal fog. Should see VLIFR at SLK/MPV 06-14Z, and intervals of IFR/MVFR elsewhere mainly 06-12Z. Fog will dissipate with daytime heating/mixing 12-14Z Sunday. No precipitation expected. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos

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