Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280903 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 403 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1229 AM EST SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 900 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PREDICATED A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. ALSO RAISED MINS A TAD IN THE SLV WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING OUT. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED PRECIP IN OTHERS. DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK DURING SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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