Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220826 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front moving across Vermont and New York during the pre- dawn hours will usher in much colder air today with strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Flurries will end this morning, with a few icy spots possible on roadways. Afternoon temperatures will generally range from the upper teens to lower 20s. High pressure in place for Thursday will result in lighter winds and moderating temperatures. A warm front will arrive on Friday with increasing clouds and mixed wintry precipitation across the North Country. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 159 AM EDT Wednesday...Arctic cold front is passing thru BTV at 06Z with ongoing snow showers and localized snow squalls. Winds in the wake of the front are gusting 25-33kts (including 32kt at BTV), and strong low-level CAA will maintain good low-level mixing and gusty winds to 30kts from the NW throughout most of the day. It appears we`ll remain below wind advisory criteria, but will still be a rather brisk day for late March with wind chills zero to 10 below in many spots this afternoon. Main concern early this morning is for some icy spots on roads with "flash freeze" situation as temperatures rapidly fall below freezing during the pre-dawn period, with snow initially melting on relatively warm paved surfaces. We`ll handle with a Special Weather Statement as we get closer to the morning commute time frame to highlight for the traveling public. Temp at 06Z still 36F at BTV but already down to 23F upstream at MSS...and 850mb temps fall to -21C to -23C across our forecast area by 18Z this afternoon. Thus, will see rapidly falling temps through the morning and not much recovery this afternoon. Will continue to see some mountain flurries with upslope flow conditions, but gradual drying will occur with decreasing clouds from NW-SE away from the summits during the daylight hrs. Should see mostly sunny conditions for the afternoon hrs, except partly sunny across far n-central into nern VT with orographic effects. Strong surface anticyclone (1038mb) begins to move in from the Great Lakes region tonight and Thursday, bringing diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. Lows tonight generally in the single digits above zero, except in the lower teens in the vcnty of Lake Champlain. Some modest recovery on temps tomorrow aided by relatively high late March sun angle, with highs upr 20s to lower 30s and lighter nw winds 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday....Thursday night will remain quiet with strong sfc ridge shifting eastward into the Gulf of Maine. Will see developing south-southwest winds and increasing mid- upper level clouds combine to mitigate radiational cooling a bit. Should see lows in the lower 20s in the immediate vicinity of Lake Champlain, and mainly in the teens elsewhere. Most of the temperature drop will occur during the first half of the night before leveling off with thickening clouds from SW-NE. A more active weather pattern develops starting on Friday, as a warm front moves into the region from the SW. It appears snow will develop Friday morning, before changing to a mix of sleet and rain during the afternoon and evening hrs. Could see some impacts to travel in spots, mainly away from the Champlain Valley as moderately strong S-SW winds (15-25 mph, gusts 35mph) allow temperatures to climb through the 30s by Friday afternoon. Could see a minimal accumulation of snow/sleet in the Champlain Valley, with 1-3" across the nrn Adirondacks and central/ern VT...where subfreezing air will likely hold on a bit longer. Have started a mention in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. It appears initial surge of low-level WAA and associated 700mb shortwave trough will slide to our east Friday night. At the same time, the GFS/ECMWF have been trending toward a stronger sfc ridge to our north across Ontario and wrn Quebec. It`s likely that the sfc front will stall with an east-west orientation in vcnty of nrn NY/VT Friday night, with abundant low clouds and possible light rain/drizzle. It`s possible that the front may settle south a bit if there is a shallow push of colder air from srn Quebec. That could have an impact on precipitation type later Friday night, though again, any precip during this time frame is expected to be light. Have shown lows in the upr 20s to lower 30s for now, and will continue to monitor model trends with regard to positional of the quasi- stationary front.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Greater than average run-to-run model variance during the long-term period. Anticipate a W-E quasi- stationary front across the North Country Saturday morning, with latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF suggesting a shallow push of colder air/north winds associated with strong anticyclone to our north. This should result in the frontal zone sagging to the south during the day Saturday into Saturday night. If those trends hold, should see diminishing chances for precipitation, and even some partial clearing across nrn areas with drier air moving in from the N-NE. Attm, showing just 20-30 PoPs across the Adirondacks into s-central VT for possible -RW/-SW on Saturday. Highs on Saturday expected in the mid-upr 30s north, but possibly low-mid 40s south depending on exact trends with the frontal boundary. Strong surface high pressure across central Quebec should keep us relatively dry Saturday night thru the first half of Sunday. Next shortwave trough in the Ohio Valley may result in the next surge of low- level WAA and isentropic lift as winds turn S-SW across our area later Sunday into Monday. If bndry retreats nwd as a warm front, may again see a period of mixed wintry precipitation, with snow/sleet trending toward mainly rain for the daylight hrs Monday. Again, greater than normal degree of variance in the 00z NWP model suite, so we will continue to monitor trends.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...A strong arctic cold front will pass through the region early this morning bringing 1-2SM -SHSN thru 08Z, and NWLY wind gusts of 28-32kts. Improving back to VFR with gradual clearing during the daylight hrs, but will continue to see gusts 25-30kts from the NW thru sunset today before gradually diminishing tonight. HIR TRRN will remain OBSCD thru 11-12Z this morning. 00Z Thursday through Sunday... 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday - VFR/high pressure. 12Z Friday through Sunday - VFR/MVFR/IFR in mixed wintry precipitation. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Banacos/Deal LONG TERM...Banacos/Deal AVIATION...Banacos

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