Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282236 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 636 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 631 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST EXPECTING SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME MORE DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIN TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING ANY MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARINE LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 253 PM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH REMAINS LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...TRENDING COOLER AND WETTER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. FEEL WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST AND RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE`LL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. GFS AND ECMWF STILL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THOUGH NOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. DEEP TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A RATHER MILD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHIFT INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AND A BLOCKING HIGH IS TO OUR EAST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD SEE A DELAY IN PRECIP RATHER THAN THE INCREASE PRESENT ON THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE...BUT WILL PLAY A BLEND FOR NOW SINCE WE`RE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE BTV CWA SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND NOT PASSING UNTIL SUNDAY WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING VLIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK OVERNIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...EXPECTING FOG TO REDEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 05Z WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PBG/MSS/BTV AS WELL. FOG BREAKS UP BETWEEN 13-14Z...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VFR THOUGH SKIES WILL THICKEN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED AVIATION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 05-12Z EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS NOT BEEN TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS SINCE 1554Z (1154 AM EDT) ON THE 27TH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS IS DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE BETWEEN THE SITE AND THE FAA ADAS (ASOS DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM). NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW EQUIPMENT...BTV

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