-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201736
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
136 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue across the
region today. Although Sunday and Monday will trend drier, it will
be unseasonably cool, especially Monday. Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 122 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Showers have developed across portions of
northern NY as expected, and coverage should gradually expand
eastward into VT this afternoon. Activity has been fairly
unimpressive so far, but with the upper trough now moving
overhead, still anticipate a few stronger cores will be
possible. Should more robust showers develop, they`ll be capable
of producing some briefly gusty winds, along with some pea-size
hail or graupel. Otherwise, temperatures have warmed a little
more than expected from the Champlain Valley eastward where
skies have  been partly to mostly sunny. Clouds are increasing
however, so additional warming will be relatively minimal. Have
made some slight adjustments to PoPs to match the latest radar
trends, but overall the forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...As a weak frontal boundary continues to
move eastward from the region, a quiet and mostly dry morning is
expected across the region today as drier air moves in behind
the front. A fairly vigorous upper level trough will swing
through this afternoon, bringing additional chances for
scattered showers, with the greatest chances near the
international border. Some of these showers may produce graupel
or some pea sized hail, with model soundings show steep lapse
rates. The limited moisture available will hinder the potential
for measurable precipitation with this system, especially with
some drier air at the surface to overcome. Winds will once again
be on the breezy side tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 mph
possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be on the cool side,
with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with northern New
York and the northeast Kingdom on the cooler side due to shower
activity. Showers will taper off after sunset. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, a few degrees
below climatological normal for this time of year.

Most of the day on Sunday will be dry, with a frontal boundary
moving across the region Sunday evening bringing a chance of some
scattered showers. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will
increase throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible in the
late afternoon into the evening hours. Daytime high temperatures
will climb into the 40s to around 50, with the broader valleys
nearing the mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Deep, cold shortwave rotates around
Hudson Bay strong, cold low across Quebec and northern New England
Sunday night. This will deliver a strong cold front with limited
moisture and instability for isold/sct rain/snow showers overnight
with a decent push of colder air with 925mb temps -6 to -10c by 12z
Mon. A chilly, somewhat breezy Monday with deeper valleys in the 40s
and some U30s in Mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Broad WNW upper low flow as Quebec
shortwave exits and awaiting next upstream shortwave in the Wed time
frame.

Ahead of next system, broad fast SW flow for temperatures to rebound
to near or above seasonable levels for Tue.

All 3 global deterministics/ensembles show another system for
Wednesday with the GFS a stronger outlier with a 520DM Closed Low
and 1004mb Surface while the ECMWF/Canadian show a strong shortwave
with potential weak surface low (1011mb) tracking across the area.
Although latest Canadian has trended toward GFS. Both solutions are
rather progressive with steady precipitation but GFS has upper low
lingering through Thu ngt. Most of the precipitation will be rain
but as colder air aloft comes in late Wed-Wed ngt some mountain
snow/rain mix.

NBM/WPC guidance has 1/3-1/2 inch with locally higher possible
through the period which is manageable across FA according to
long range hydrologic ensembles.

Attm...leaning toward ECMWF/Canadian solutions of gradual improving
conditions Thu-Fri but cooler than normal Thursday...a few degrees
milder than Mon with a rebound to seasonable temperatures on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across the region
this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue into the
evening, and while coverage does not warrant anything beyond
VCSH to be included in the TAFs, brief MVFR or even IFR
visibility will be possible should any terminals be directly
impacted. Otherwise, showers end by 02z while clouds briefly
wane this evening, then increase again after 08z, becoming SCT-
BKN. Valley sites will remain VFR, but higher elevations could
see MVFR ceilings as clouds increase, especially KSLK/KEFK. West
winds 6-10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt will continue through the
afternoon, subsiding somewhat after sunset, though occasional
gusts will still be possible. Winds pick back up from the
west/southwest after sunrise, gusting to 15-20 kt toward the end
of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Hastings/Kremer