Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232334 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 634 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE RAIN ENDS CHRISTMAS DAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 319 PM EST TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE THE PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 319 PM EST TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH WIND WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE PERIODS OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA IS COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN AND ENHANCES THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OVER VERMONT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50S...AND THE SNOWMELT THAT RESULTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. LARGER RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT RIVERS SUCH AS THE AUSABLE...OTTER CREEK...AND WINOOSKI WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7AM FRIDAY. THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AND DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND GUSTS 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE COMMON. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EST TUESDAY...BY FRIDAY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS OF THE 12Z RUN OF THE NWP SUITE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT OVER THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ACTUAL TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP DIFFERS GREATLY AS THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA AND BRING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ON SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE FRONTAL SOLUTION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE PASSING THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW WITH THE DISCREPANCIES AS THEY ARE... HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR BUT SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY DURING DAY WILL BE DRY BUT DEPENDING ON THE MODELS A SECOND LOW COULD DEVELOP AND BRING MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY LATE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING US BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST WITH A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM MVFR TO LIFR, DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG/MIST. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TIMING INITIAL RAIN INTO CHRISTMAS EVE ARE ALSO AVIATION CONCERNS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAFS. AS THIS INITIAL PRECIP LIFTS NORTH, A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ATOP A RELATIVELY COLD GROUND AND A SNOWPACK, AREAS OF MIST/FOG WILL DEVELOP. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN WITH THE MIST OR FOG. MOST OF THE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY I`VE INDICATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE MORE FROM FOG RATHER THAN DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST 4-7 KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS, AND NORTHEAST 6-8 KTS AT MSS). FOR CHRISTMAS EVE: LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TAFS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT ABOVE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH STEADIER RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 6-10 KTS CHRISTMAS EVE. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z THU-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY, BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z THU-12Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO

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