Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 090216 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1016 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1006 PM EDT TUESDAY...IMPRESSIVE SVR WX EVENT ACRS OUR CWA THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORM WINDS. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE NORTHERN NY FROM WATCH AND GRAND ISLE COUNTY VT. STILL WATCHING A LINE OF STORM WITH SEVERAL BOW LIKE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES MOVING ACRS CENTRAL VT ATTM. THIS LINE WL CONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR THRU THE REST OF VT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION BELOW... AN ACTIVE EVENING EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT...WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREES...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV. SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT LIFTING FROM WESTERN NY INTO THE SLV BY 03Z TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY WL COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW TO MID LVL WIND PROFILES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS OUR FA FROM 21 UTC TO 06Z TONIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARDS TO HIGH END SVR WL BE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SYSTEM...FEEL BEST CHC FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WL BE ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. HAVE ALREADY NOTED SFC BASED CAPE PARAMETERS DECREASING AS MID LVL CLOUDS MOVE INTO OUR REGION...WITH LAPS SHOWING VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...THIS COULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS ACRS OUR CWA. WL CONT TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS IN FCST THRU 04Z TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE CPV AND POINTS WESTWARD. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS WESTERN NY/PA THIS AFTN...QUICKLY LIFTING NE AND IMPACTING OUR REGION BTWN 21Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES ACRS NORTHERN NY. OTHERWISE...WL TAPER LIKELY/CAT POPS TO CHC WORDING AFT MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. SFC GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. MAYBE A FEW PATCHY AREAS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BUILD ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR WEDS THRU THURS NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY BY THURS. LATEST PROGS CONT TO SHOW ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE FLW ALOFT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON WEDS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BEST SFC BASED CAPE IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CWA WL BE UNDER LLVL CAA ON WEDS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING BTWN 8C (SLV) TO 12C (CT RIVER VALLEY)...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S DACKS TO L/M 70S SLV/NEK/MTNS OF VT...MID/UPPER 70S CPV...TO L80S NEAR VSF. EXPECTING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U40S TO U50S ON WEDS NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THURS INTO THURS NIGHT...1024MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS ACRS OUR CWA. THIS ULVL SUPPORT WL COMBINED WITH SOME SFC HEATING/LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE TRRN ON THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AND RANGE BTWN 6-9C ON THURS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS TO 70S VALLEYS. A COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON THURS NIGHT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...TEMPS WL FALL BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S COLDER VALLEYS TO U40S/L50S CPV/UHI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 416 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WL FEATURE A TRANSITION BTWN MID/UPPER LVL TROF INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W FEATURES IN THE FLW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT ON SAT/SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY AND SFC BOUNDARY. BEST CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS WL BE NEXT MONDAY...WHEN THE COMBINATION OF ULVL SUPPORT INTERACTS WITH BEST LLVL INSTABILITY. WL KEEP POPS AT CHC FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AND WAIT FOR BETTER TIMING WITH TROF DEVELOPMENT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE WITH DWPTS WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S...WL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDESTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 50KTS OR GREATER. HAVE INCLUDED VRB 20-30KT GUSTS 40-50KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION, BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE SPECIFIC. BEST GUESS IS STARTING AROUND 00Z AT KPBG/KSLK/KMSS AND 0030Z AT KBTV AND 0130 AT KRUT AND 02Z AT MPV. HAVE OBSERVED WINDS GUSTED TO 57KT AT KGTB EARLIER AT NEAR 23Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED TO IFR AT TIMES FOR ABOUT AN HOUR BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY KEPT IT IN FOR A COUPLE HOURS. WILL HANDLE STORMS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS THEY DEVELOP. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WED AFTER 12Z WITH A SCT CLOUD DECK. SOME CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA AGAIN WED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THU - SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.