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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231914
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure that provided dry weather on Monday will drift off the
East Coast through this evening. A strengthening southerly flow in
its wake has helped boost temperatures back above average, but has
also brought increased moisture into our region. Clouds will
continue to thicken and lower from west to east through the
afternoon ahead of a slow moving frontal system approaching from the
upper Great Lakes. This system will generate a quarter to a half
inch of rain for us tonight into Wednesday morning with chilly
temperatures on Wednesday. An expansive area of Canadian high
pressure will then assure us of fair dry weather Thursday and
Friday, before chances for some showers return this weekend.
Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday, followed by day-to-day
warming with readings soaring to well above normal levels by the
second half of the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will push off the East Coast this afternoon.
Otherwise, clouds will continue to thicken and lower from west to
east through the remainder of the day as the next area of low
pressure moves through the western Great Lakes. Ragged line of
showers continues to progress east across southwest Ontario as a pre-
frontal trough moves toward the area. Ample lift aloft combined with
surface convergence along the boundary helping to produce this line
of showers, however as this activity encounters a very dry airmass
over our region, they are tending to fall apart or evaporate before
reaching the ground at this point. Eventually as moisture continues
to deepen, showers will eventually make it to the surface across
western NY by late today into this evening.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon courtesy of a 45 knot low level jet which has been
able to at least partially mix to the surface within this warm
advective regime. This has allowed surface winds to gust to at least
30 mph across the region, with the highest gusts across the Niagara
Frontier where gusts so far have reached around 45 mph. A few gusts
to 50 mph are possible, particularly across northern Erie and
Niagara counties where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6
PM. Mild this afternoon with many areas in the 60s.

Initial batch of lighter showers will spread across the area this
evening as weak wave rides northeast along the pre-frontal trough as
it moves into the area. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure that
will bring us the more substantial rainfall will move from the upper
Great Lakes and track east just to the north of Lake Ontario. The
low pressure system itself will remain rather weak and disorganized,
however a potent shortwave aloft, upper jet support, and associated
wavy surface cold front will provide sufficient lift to bring a
period of widespread rain to our region tonight, with basin average
rainfall amounts of a quarter to half inch. PWATs will approach one
inch, which will support some embedded areas of at least moderately
heavy rain, which may locally boost rainfall amounts. Southerly
flow, clouds, and rain will keep temperatures up tonight ahead of
the wavy cold front with lows mainly ranging through the 40s.

Wavy cold front moves into northern portions of the area early
Wednesday morning, then will push southeast across the remainder of
the area through the morning hours. Decent CAA in the wake of the
front will cause temperatures to fall from the 40s into the 30s for
most areas. Enough moisture will linger briefly in the colder air
that precipitation may end as a few wet snowflakes before rapidly
tapering off from north to south from late morning through mid
afternoon. May be able to squeeze out a slushy coating across the
Tug Hill and highest hilltops of the Southern Tier by late morning.

Skies should then rapidly clear from north to south through the
afternoon as much drier air builds in, with sunshine likely
returning, especially across northern portions of the area. It will
be a very chilly day with many area remaining in the 30s to low 40s
after peaking in the low to mid 40s to start the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Broad troughing spread across the East Coast earlier in the week,
will begin to pull east into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, mid-level ridging spread across the upper Midwest fill in
across the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the trough. A shortwave
trough within the next longwave trough spread across the western
half of the CONUS will traverse the Central Plains Friday and Friday
night.

Looking further into the details, surface high pressure centered
over the eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to dive
south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and
Thursday. This high will then continue to sag south into the
Atlantic by Friday night. Overall this will support dry weather
Wednesday night through Friday.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will support a surface low over
the Central Plains Friday evening. As the night progresses, a
surface warm front will advance northeastward towards the lower
Great Lakes late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Despite the dry weather, conditions will continue to remain on the
cool side due to the exiting troughing pattern overhead. Highs
Thursday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s. A slight warm up
Friday with highs peaking in the low 60s to a few mid 60s across the
I-90 corridor along the Lake Erie shoreline of Western New York.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday night and Saturday an initial weakening cutter-type system
will lift northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Great
Lakes. A warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this low
will approach from the west Friday night before partially crossing
our region during Saturday...while tending to weaken over time as it
pushes further out ahead of its also-weakening parent low. Current
model consensus continues to suggest an associated band of showers
approaching/crossing far western New York late Friday night/Saturday
morning...with this activity then at least somewhat weakening/
diminishing in coverage as it pushes further east Saturday
afternoon. With this in mind will continue to carry a period of
likely PoPs across far western New York Saturday morning...before
dropping these back to the chance range as the afternoon progresses.
Otherwise...broad warm air advection across our region will result
in a continued upward arc in temperatures...with lows in the lower
40s east to around 50 west Friday night followed by widespread highs
in the 60s Saturday. Should the showers diminish across far WNY as
currently thought during Saturday afternoon...850 mb temps of +9 to
+10C and a stiffening southerly downslope flow could easily support
highs breaking into the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline and
across the Niagara Frontier...even in spite of what should still be
fairly cloudy skies.

Saturday night and Sunday the initial surface low will continue to
weaken as it pushes northeastward across Quebec Province...with its
trailing cold frontal boundary now looking increasingly likely to
stall out well to our north as a second and stronger cutter-type low
develops across the Upper Mississippi Valley...and upper-level
ridging noses northward across New York State. With daytime heating
on Sunday...cannot rule out some additional scattered showers/a few
thunderstorms as our region becomes more firmly embedded within the
warm airmass on the east side of these two systems...however with
the main surface boundary remaining to our north areal coverage
should be lower than on Saturday...with drier weather tending to be
more predominant. The much bigger story will be temperatures...as
850 temps will surge to between +11C and +13C and support late
spring to early summerlike warmth across our region. Expect temps to
range through the 50s Saturday night...then climb well into the 70s
south of Lake Ontario on Sunday...with a few of our normal warm
spots in the Genesee Valley likely even breaking the 80 degree mark.
This being said it will be a bit cooler east of Lake Ontario...as
well as immediately downwind of Lake Erie owing to a southwesterly
breeze off that lake.

Sunday night and Monday the second and stronger cutter low will make
its way across the Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario Province...
with this next system eventually pivoting its trailing cold front
toward our area during Monday. Consequently generally dry weather
should prevail Sunday night...with the approaching front then
bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm potential on Monday.
Otherwise we can expect late spring to early summertime warmth to
continue...with lows of 55-60 Sunday night followed by fairly
widespread highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will remain in place through this afternoon, although
surface winds will continue to gust 25-30 knots for all of the TAF
sites, with gusts near 40 knots at times for KBUF and KIAG.
Otherwise, expect a continued thickening and lowering of mid level
decks from west to east. A few scattered showers may get into
western NY very late today or early evening.

Widespread rain moves into the area tonight as slow moving frontal
system moves across the area. MVFR CIGS develop this evening, with a
period of IFR CIGS likely second half of tonight as the wavy front
moves through the the area. MVFR VSBY possible in areas of heavier
rainfall. IFR/MVFR CIGS will slowly improve through the morning
hours as precipitation changes over to a few wet snowflakes before
ending. Conditions will rapidly improve Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Fresh southwesterlies continue through the afternoon. This would
typically favor Small Craft Advisory conditions, but the early
season cold dome effect is likely coming into play as model guidance
is holding waves down for most areas, however there will still be
some decent chop on the waters. The exception remains for the
western third of Lake Ontario (W of Hamlin Beach), where a SCA for
that area remains in effect.

A wavy cold front will slowly pass through the region tonight. While
winds and waves will briefly subside in the process (especially on
Lake Ontario), a notable but short-lived increase in northerly winds
can be expected on Wednesday. While the fetch will not be overly
favorable for significant wave increases, the combination should be
more than enough to generate rough conditions. Future Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for this period, especially on Lake
Ontario.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry conditions with gusty winds will persist through the
afternoon. Min RHs will fall below 30%. Wind gusts during the
afternoon hours will reach 30 to 35 mph. With fine fuels
continuing to dry out this afternoon, an SPS remains in effect
for all but far western NY.

RH values will quickly recover late this afternoon and evening
though, as showers will develop ahead of a slow moving cold
front. The showers will transition into a widespread rain later
this evening and overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH
FIRE WEATHER...JM/RSH