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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 171804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS IT SAGS SOUTH. ON TUESDAY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ACROSS THE WEST THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE LAKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUPRESS ANY ACTIVITY.. SO FAR.
THE DISTINCT LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAK DEVELOPMENT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEN ONCE THE LAKE BREEZE
SUBSIDES THE BROAD AREA OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK.

ON TUESDAY SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS LINGER IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. DRY, ALBEIT COOLER, AIR OVERSPREADS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE COOL FRONT WILL DOMINATE WESTERN AND NROTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LINGERING
BROAD/RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A POSITION OFF THE EAST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH A COUPLE WEAK FEATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTH
COUNTRY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUMP SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO OUR
REGION...AND THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE GENERAL
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INDICATED POPS CLIMBING BACK TO LOW CHANCE LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE ABOVE EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO RESULT IN READINGS MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BY THURSDAY...THEN TO AT LEAST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY SHOULD WARM BACK TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
BOTH THE EVENTUAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE RISE...WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY CLIMBING BACK TO MODERATELY HUMID LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FIGHT CONDITION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 02Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN