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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 152322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SPRINGTIME WARMTH...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH 600 PM. THE ONLY AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH THESE MOVING EAST AND OUT OF OUR REGION.
THIS DRYING WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TOO IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER THIS...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE FROM HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
AFTER SUNSET...WITH A QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR WESTERN
NY...WITH A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER CLOUDS GRAZING THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE NOTABLY LOWER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MORE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT LINE OF CLOUDS FROM KIAG-KFZY IN
THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY BY
UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE AN ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO EASTERN CANADA BY
SATURDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TO WARM
NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF
COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS NEARING THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN ANY ONE PERIOD IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME...GIVEN THE BROAD/WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY/DEEP
LOW EMERGES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL RESULT AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS CIRCULATION AMID INCREASING
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY/S WINDS WERE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EASILY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND BECOME LESS
GUSTY ON THE RIVERS...WHICH ALLOWS US TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS TODAY. FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF