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499
FXUS61 KBUF 301058
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly cross the area today with showers and the
risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated with weak high
pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stationary boundary draped across the region will lift to the north
this morning with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm
possible across central New York.

Wavy upstream cold front will slowly cross the region today.
Narrow band of light to moderate showers lined up along the
boundary will work into the region with the front. Instability
will remain fairly limited, so any thunder looks isolated to
widely scattered at best. Basin average rainfall amounts should
not exceed a quarter inch, although localized amounts of up to a
half inch will be possible in any stronger convection. Despite
the wealth of cloud cover and expected precipitation temperatures
will be on the milder side with most highs in the 60s to lower
70s, with the warmest reading along the Southern Tier and
colder readings closer to Lake Ontario.

The showers will taper off from west to east late this afternoon and
this evening as the cold front exits. While the showers will move
east overnight, clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level ridge axis will slide across the lower Great Lakes
Wednesday before flattening out to zonal flow Thursday, allowing for
a short wave trough to slide across southern Canada. Translating
this pattern down to the surface, an elongated area across the
Appalachians will spread into New York State, supporting dry weather
for much of Wednesday. The aforementioned shortwave will support a
surface low to pass across northern Ontario and Quebec Thursday.
Despite the presence of the surface low to the north, surface high
pressure will remain strong and keep the shower activity well to the
north out of New York State and into Canada.

With the ridging overhead and at the surface, warm air advection
will support temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 60s
across the North Country and range in the 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing north across
the Upper Midwest into Ontario, Canada Thursday night through
Friday. Bountiful warm moist air will continue to advect into the
region Friday, where a few afternoon showers will be possible.

As this surface low continues to progress northward across Canada,
its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east
across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. There continues
to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held
PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes
Sunday night thorugh Monday, causing any lingering showers to
gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this morning with cigs trending
down to MVFR then IFR. An upstream cold front will slowly cross the
region today with periodic light to moderate showers. A few
thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is low in coverage and
location.

Outlook...

Tonight...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or
less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before
dry weather returns for the mid week period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA