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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 151435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS A RETURN
TO STORMY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A GENERALLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY MILD DAY TODAY COURTESY OF OF AN EXPANSIVE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY WARMER AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER
TO SPEAK OF WILL BE CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING STORMY WEATHER
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT MILDER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THE
BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START FATHER`S DAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK WITH
SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE HIGH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ARRIVING FIRST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY
MORNING THEN TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE MORE
FOCUSED AREA WILL BE FOUND JUST AHEAD OF A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE RIVER
VALLEY. THIS JET WILL HELP ADVECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW
PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCH. THESE SATURATED
SKINNY CAPE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SETUP
THAN SEVERE STORMS. WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FORM THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIGHTNING.

QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN ONE HALF
INCH AND ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVY STORMS. WHILE
THE INCH OR SO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...WE ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH FOR RAINFALL SO THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD
BRING MORE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN FROM
HEAVY STORMS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO MID 60S NORTH COUNTY
TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR WESTERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LINGERING STORM AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH OFF
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN MEANS OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT DRY OUT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TIGHTEN UP.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE BUT THESE WOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND DIURNALLY INFLUENCED AS MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM WESTERN
ONTARIO PROVINCE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE WOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME MODEL
FORECAST WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COULD BOOST 850MB TEMPS FROM +10
TO +14C WHICH COULD YIELD SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF ANY NOTABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO COME
FAIRLY EARLY ON...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SAID... MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF ANY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH BY EXTENSION WILL INFLUENCE HOW QUICKLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND ALSO HOW WET IT MIGHT BE. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE AND WPC SCENARIO...INDICATING BROADBRUSH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ALLOWS READINGS TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CLOUD CONSISTING
OF AREAS OF CIRRUS DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CIGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKES TODAY COURTESY OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD