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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR REGION THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH
IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT TIME
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WHILE A SFC HIGH NOSING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE POURING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SHROUD OUR SKIES. REGIONAL U.S. AND CANADIAN RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF JET INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TO COVER FOR ANY PCPN
THAT STRAYS INTO THE REGION.

A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL THEN
WAVER A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850
MB TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS FOUND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES DUE TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES..
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.  GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH