Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
522 FXUS65 KBYZ 101503 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 903 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .UPDATE... Early morning fog has mostly dissipated, but 15z satellite imagery shows fog or stratus lingering in the Paradise Valley. Today will be dry and warmer with temps in the 60s to near 70F, as upper level ridge continues to build from the northwest. Forecast is in good shape. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday Night... High pressure over the western US will put the area under ridging to northwest flow through Saturday. Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected. A few isolated showers are possible over the Bighorn Mountains on Saturday (15% chance), with increasing clouds Saturday night, ahead of a shortwave dropping in from the northwest. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees today, warming further into the 70s for Saturday. The upcoming warmer temperatures will melt much of the wet snow that fell at elevations between 6000-8000 feet this week. At this time we do not see a flood risk, but rivers/streams emerging from the foothills will likely see some rises this weekend. STP Sunday through Friday... Sunday will be a warm day with downsloping flow aloft. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above average in the mid 70s for most. Monday will start out similar to Sunday with highs in the mid to high 70s with downsloped clear skies. Late Monday will see a change as a low pressure system moves along the Canadian border dragging a cold front across the region. This will bring gusty winds and precipitation chances. Precipitation looks to move out by Tuesday evening with most of the region having a 20-30% chance of getting 0.25 inches. Tuesday will see windy conditions as the front moves through and brings pressure rises. Most of the area has a 40-60% chance of getting a wind gust over 30 mph. Wednesday through the rest of the week there is much more uncertainty in the forecast. For Wednesday and Thursday, about 55% of models show ridging coming back to the area while 45% of models show troughing. Friday, about 40% of models show ridging with the other possibilities being troughing and zonal flow. With this much uncertainty and disagreement in the forecast it is difficult to pinpoint anything as ridging would generally bring cooler and wetter conditions with the ridging solutions bringing warmer and drier conditions. Currently though, even the troughing solutions aren`t bringing much precipitation to the region leading to likely dry conditions Wednesday through Friday with 20-40% chances for precipitation each day. Temperatures will fall from the 70s Monday to 60s on Tuesday with the passage of the cold front. After that temperatures are favored to hold steady in the 60s though this could change with the pattern uncertainty. Winds could gust into the 20s mph Wednesday through Friday in the afternoon as lapse rates get steep enough to mix down winds. Torgerson && .AVIATION... The next 24 hours will be dry with mostly clear skies. Winds will be light for the most part though KBHK could see wind gusts to 20 kts from about 15-00Z. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 045/075 047/076 049/077 051/065 045/067 045/070 0/U 00/B 12/R 15/T 47/T 34/T 34/T LVM 068 038/072 044/075 047/074 046/063 041/065 044/069 0/U 00/U 01/U 15/T 36/T 24/T 34/T HDN 069 040/076 045/077 046/078 049/065 042/067 042/069 0/U 00/U 12/R 14/T 56/R 34/T 33/T MLS 069 043/076 048/074 047/078 049/066 043/066 043/068 0/U 00/B 13/R 13/T 44/R 23/T 32/R 4BQ 068 041/075 047/075 046/078 049/065 043/065 043/067 0/U 00/U 02/T 12/T 55/T 23/T 32/R BHK 069 042/075 045/073 044/077 046/066 040/064 040/066 0/U 00/U 02/R 13/T 44/T 23/R 22/R SHR 066 037/072 043/074 044/076 046/063 040/064 040/068 0/U 00/U 13/T 14/T 57/T 44/T 33/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings