Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 100542 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1242 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATE AS OF 900 PM: COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE IN WAKE OF FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST NEAR ALA/GA...WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ON THEM. A WEAK WEDGE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR FA. WILL EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL DEVELOP AS THEY SHIFT OFF TO OUR NE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN THE LOWS TO OUR NE AND HIGH PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY TO 10PM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY...AND LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FA WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE TO A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY. WILL EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS WED NIGHT..BUT WINDS ON AREA LAKES COULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WED NT. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE HEADLINES COULD GET CONFUSING. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST WILL OPEN AND SHIFT ESE. LATEST GFS OPENS THE UPPER LOW AND TAKES IT ES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FRI/FRI NT...TAKING THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...KEEPING ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CANADIAN AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE LOW COULD BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO ALTER THE ONGOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRI/FRI NT TIME FRAME. REST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE LEFT UNCHANGED. MODELS DEVELOP A DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT US EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY 08Z. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND FRONT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND WINDS INCREASING TO WEST 20-30 KNOTS AND GUSTY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS TO POSSIBLY 40 KTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OCCASIONAL MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE BUT WIND SHEAR NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...JUST SPEED SHEAR BUT SHEAR MAGNITUDE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 25 PERCENT EXPECTED WED AFTN...THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE MET. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINS. COORDINATED WITH FEDERAL AND STATE FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS...AND THEY CONFIRMED FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH AND A RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER IS NOT NEEDED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016- 018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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&& $$

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