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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 171017
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAS REMOVED THE CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS
THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...
WE DID NOT FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
FORECASTED POPS OF 50 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST PART BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE LIFT ASSOCIATED
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 TODAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS PLUS THE SREF MEAN SUPPORT GENERAL RAIN
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GA MOVING EASTWARD.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER AGS/DNL. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR BOTH AGS AND DNL FOR SHRA UNTIL 14Z. AFTER ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE MENTION SHRA AFTER 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES BUT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SHRA IN THE TAFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$