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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 230022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH GEORGIA INTENSIFYING PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS IN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY. LIFT ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA.
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN CSRA/PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. WILL
INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA. DECREASED POPS ACROSS REST OF REGION
WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FRONT APPROACHING LATE CANT RULE OUT A SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING. CUT POPS AFTER 18Z FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS OUR FA. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND N/CENT GA. HIGH
RES MODELS INDICATE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST NEAR AN UPPER
IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
APPROACHES THE FA LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIG RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW...ALONG WITH SOME TIMING
QUESTIONS...TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$