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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 180231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN GEORGIA
THIS EVENING MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BECAUSE OF
DIURNAL COOLING SO FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE NC/SC BORDER
SATURDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SLIP INTO SC ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALSO GIVE A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A WARM AND GENERALLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN EARLY IN
THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE COULD BE MVFR VSBYS OGB DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
ALABAMA SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM FOR
VERY LONG AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...OGB COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPORARY
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN.

AFTER 12Z...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION
BUT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT
COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. PROBABILITIES AND
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE WILL
NOT INCLUDE THUNDER OR ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH LESS THAN 10 MPH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$