Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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000
FXUS62 KCAE 271847
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving cold front is expected to bring unsettled weather
through early Thursday. Rain chances diminish Thursday morning
as high pressure approaches but a tight pressure gradient will
likely produce breezy conditions. High pressure and upper
ridging should keep the region dry on Friday and into the
weekend with a significant warming trend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fairly sharp temperature contrast has set up across the forecast
area as a slow moving cold front pushes eastward. Eastern cwa
remains in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while the western
counties are only in the low to middle 50s. This front will
continue to slowly moves eastward. A good temperature drop will
occur in areas as the front moves through during the afternoon,
and this makes for a rather challenging afternoon temperature
forecast. More uniform this evening and tonight with expected
cloud cover and cooler air overspreading the entire forecast
area, with overnight lows in the low to middle 50s expected.
As for rainfall, the initial shortwave energy moving northward
along this front produced showers and isolated thunderstorms
this morning, but that activity is pushing out of the forecast
area. Additional energy moving through southeastern Ga should
cause some redevelopment of showers through the afternoon and
evening hours. Best instability will be across areas east of the
front, more so along the coastal plain of SC/Ga, and would
expect better thunderstorm coverage in that location. Remainder
of the cwa will see general showers this afternoon and evening,
with an isolated thunderclap still possible. In addition, with
the previous rainfall and the potential for periods of moderate
rainfall, can not rule out localized flooding. Later tonight,
showers and storms will remain possible across mostly the
eastern cwa, with heavy rainfall expected along the frontal
boundary. Rain chances will slowly diminish through the night as
the front moves further east.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday and Thursday Night: Upper trough centered over the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys at the start of the period swings across
the forecast area later in the day ending up in the Mid-Atlantic
region by daybreak Friday. The passage of this trough, combined
with building high pressure at the surface, will usher in a
cooler and drier air mass. Scattered showers will likely be
ongoing across parts of the the Eastern Midlands at daybreak
with any precipitation coming to an end around midday as drier
air rushes in behind the storm system. Morning cloudiness gives
way to clearing from west to east by evening. The increasing
pressure gradient between the departing coastal low and
approaching high pressure will likely produce gusty winds across
the region, especially in the eastern half of the FA. It does
not appear that a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed but periodic
gusts of 20 to 25 knots are possible over area lakes,
especially Lake Marion. Daytime temperatures will be below
normal. Clear skies and diminishing surface winds will support
modest radiational cooling at night allowing temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Friday.
Friday and Friday Night: Rising heights and surface high
pressure will promote large-scale subsidence and downslope flow.
This will likely result in clear skies, dry conditions, and
warmer temperatures. Daytime highs should be near to slightly
below normal. Despite mainly clear skies and light winds Friday
night, it appears temperatures will only fall to around normal
values with lows in the lower to mid 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Confidence remains moderate to high in regards to the evolution
of the large-scale pattern during the extended. While upper
ridging holds strong across the Eastern CONUS for the long term,
a front is expected to become stationary well to our north
while high pressure sluggishly moves off to the south and east.
This will leave much of the Southeastern US in the warm sector
with gradually rising temperatures and moisture. Temperatures
during the period will be above to well above normal. The next
chance of rain should hold off until Tuesday or Wednesday as
the front finally gets pushed south towards the CWA.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening.
A front over the region will keep ceiling restrictions in place
through the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along
the front this afternoon leading to periods of heavy rain and
additional restrictions. Winds east of the front will be out of
the SSE while winds behind the front will be NW. This may cause
periods when terminals bounce between wind direction or become
variable through the evening.
Tonight, convection should diminish through the evening with
rain exiting the forecast area on Thursday morning. Low level
moisture overnight will keep ceilings down. IFR conditions are
most likely but LIFR will also be possible. Visibilities could
also be reduced at times overnight, particularly at AGS and OGB
or locations that receive heavy rainfall this afternoon.
Winds will pick up out of the N on Thursday morning with gusts
up to 25 kts possible. Conditions should improve through the day
Thursday with sites possibly returning to VFR by 18Z but
confidence is low.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy winds on Thursday and Friday
behind a front. Widespread restrictions unlikely through
Monday.
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.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$