Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 271847 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 247 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving cold front is expected to bring unsettled weather through early Thursday. Rain chances diminish Thursday morning as high pressure approaches but a tight pressure gradient will likely produce breezy conditions. High pressure and upper ridging should keep the region dry on Friday and into the weekend with a significant warming trend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Fairly sharp temperature contrast has set up across the forecast area as a slow moving cold front pushes eastward. Eastern cwa remains in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while the western counties are only in the low to middle 50s. This front will continue to slowly moves eastward. A good temperature drop will occur in areas as the front moves through during the afternoon, and this makes for a rather challenging afternoon temperature forecast. More uniform this evening and tonight with expected cloud cover and cooler air overspreading the entire forecast area, with overnight lows in the low to middle 50s expected. As for rainfall, the initial shortwave energy moving northward along this front produced showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning, but that activity is pushing out of the forecast area. Additional energy moving through southeastern Ga should cause some redevelopment of showers through the afternoon and evening hours. Best instability will be across areas east of the front, more so along the coastal plain of SC/Ga, and would expect better thunderstorm coverage in that location. Remainder of the cwa will see general showers this afternoon and evening, with an isolated thunderclap still possible. In addition, with the previous rainfall and the potential for periods of moderate rainfall, can not rule out localized flooding. Later tonight, showers and storms will remain possible across mostly the eastern cwa, with heavy rainfall expected along the frontal boundary. Rain chances will slowly diminish through the night as the front moves further east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday and Thursday Night: Upper trough centered over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys at the start of the period swings across the forecast area later in the day ending up in the Mid-Atlantic region by daybreak Friday. The passage of this trough, combined with building high pressure at the surface, will usher in a cooler and drier air mass. Scattered showers will likely be ongoing across parts of the the Eastern Midlands at daybreak with any precipitation coming to an end around midday as drier air rushes in behind the storm system. Morning cloudiness gives way to clearing from west to east by evening. The increasing pressure gradient between the departing coastal low and approaching high pressure will likely produce gusty winds across the region, especially in the eastern half of the FA. It does not appear that a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed but periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots are possible over area lakes, especially Lake Marion. Daytime temperatures will be below normal. Clear skies and diminishing surface winds will support modest radiational cooling at night allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Friday. Friday and Friday Night: Rising heights and surface high pressure will promote large-scale subsidence and downslope flow. This will likely result in clear skies, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures. Daytime highs should be near to slightly below normal. Despite mainly clear skies and light winds Friday night, it appears temperatures will only fall to around normal values with lows in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Confidence remains moderate to high in regards to the evolution of the large-scale pattern during the extended. While upper ridging holds strong across the Eastern CONUS for the long term, a front is expected to become stationary well to our north while high pressure sluggishly moves off to the south and east. This will leave much of the Southeastern US in the warm sector with gradually rising temperatures and moisture. Temperatures during the period will be above to well above normal. The next chance of rain should hold off until Tuesday or Wednesday as the front finally gets pushed south towards the CWA.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. A front over the region will keep ceiling restrictions in place through the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front this afternoon leading to periods of heavy rain and additional restrictions. Winds east of the front will be out of the SSE while winds behind the front will be NW. This may cause periods when terminals bounce between wind direction or become variable through the evening. Tonight, convection should diminish through the evening with rain exiting the forecast area on Thursday morning. Low level moisture overnight will keep ceilings down. IFR conditions are most likely but LIFR will also be possible. Visibilities could also be reduced at times overnight, particularly at AGS and OGB or locations that receive heavy rainfall this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the N on Thursday morning with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Conditions should improve through the day Thursday with sites possibly returning to VFR by 18Z but confidence is low. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy winds on Thursday and Friday behind a front. Widespread restrictions unlikely through Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$

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