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000
FXUS62 KCAE 171501
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1101 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOSE DAYS
AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...ANY ISOLATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...SO A DRY FORECAST SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION. BETTER RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AND FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE NC/SC BORDER SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH. FRONT WILL STALL OUT CLOSE TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SORT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING REGION MONDAY AND
PERHAPS TUESDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MAY
POSSIBLY MOVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND COULD SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SO WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR. EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNAL. FORECASTED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR
MASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY...WHILE BACK DOOR FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOME MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$