000
FXUS62 KCAE 240329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1129 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FURTHER DRYING
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR
MASS MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME
LATE TONIGHT...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS PRECLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME
THROUGH IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND
25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$