000
FXUS62 KCAE 180608
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
208 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GEORGIA MAY MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BECAUSE OF DIURNAL COOLING. ALSO THE LATEST
RAP INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO FAVOR
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY ALSO GIVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR N/NE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PROGGED. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR
WEAK. CLOUDINESS COULD INHIBIT INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. ARRAY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
IS ALWAYS HARD TO RULE OUT. 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN
GENERAL. VIL OF THE DAY 57.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A WARM AND GENERALLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN EARLY IN
THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATELLITE INDICATES ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED OUR
WAY TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RADAR INDICATES BATCH OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR WEST
OVER N GA/ALA...SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT THE FA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE N/NW FA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO
OUR N/NE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES OF IT AFFECTING SPECIFIC TERMINALS MAY BE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$