000
FXUS62 KCAE 170905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOSE DAYS
AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. A BIT OF A BREEZE WITH HOLD EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN.
MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH POPS MAINLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL STALL OUT CLOSE TO THE NC/SC
BORDER ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SORT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING REGION MONDAY AND
PERHAPS TUESDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MAY
POSSIBLY MOVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND COULD SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SO WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR. EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNAL. FORECASTED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR
MASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...WHILE
BACK DOOR FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
TODAY AND SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$