Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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750 FXUS62 KCAE 070818 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 418 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A lull in thunderstorm activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week. Potential for strong to severe storms will exist on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier conditions return for the weekend. Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below average during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As an upper level shortwave trough continues to move over the area, expect showers or thunderstorms to linger into the early morning hours. The majority of the activity should be in the northern Midlands and the Pee Dee where outflow boundaries are colliding and the shortwave energy is strongest. The shortwave will move east of the area later this morning with height rises over the region. The ridging aloft will allow for above normal temperatures today with highs this afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s. With ridging over the area there will be fewer showers and thunderstorms today than yesterday. However PWAT values from 1.3 to 1.5 inches are still above normal for the time of year and will support convective development as the air mass destabilizes in the afternoon. CAMs favor isolated to scattered convection, with highest coverage closer to the coast. Convection will diminish in the evening with loss of heating. Expect lows well above normal in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday and Wednesday night: Rain chances for Wednesday should be slightly lower than previous days due to the presence of a warm nose aloft around 700 mb still hindering development. This warmer air aloft does seem weaker across the northern Midlands, and slightly stronger across the southern Midlands and CSRA. Best rain chances should be over the north, and if any activity can get going through the afternoon, can not rule out an isolated strong to severe storm. Wednesday night may see an MCS moving through the central Appalachians before weakening late Wednesday night as it approaches the cwa from the northwest. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the lower 90s. Thursday and Thursday night: This still appears to be the period with the highest chance for any severe weather. Approaching upper trough will begin to lower heights aloft through the day, and the previous warm nose aloft will be eroding. In addition, the decaying MCS early Thursday should be putting out a surface boundary that will eventually stall out across the cwa. Guidance is showing the potential for additional shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours across the upstate of SC on the western edge of the MCS front, with the activity then advancing southeastward and expanding across the central Midlands Thursday evening and into the night. Late Thursday night will also see a surface cold front approaching the region from the west, and expect to see additional scattered development of strong storms along the front as it approaches late. SPC does have the forecast are in a Day 3 Slight Risk, with the main threats being damaging winds and hail. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Front moves through on Friday, with some shower and thunderstorm activity still possible through the day until the deeper moisture moves out and drier air begins to move into the region by Friday night. Cooler and more tranquil weather is then forecast for the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Abundant low level moisture over the region and clearing skies may lead to low stratus or fog at the TAF sites early this morning. Convection is likely to remain north of the TAF sites through the morning. After 15Z, VFR conditions are likely with winds picking up from the southwest to around 8 to 10 knots with some afternoon gusts approaching 20 knots. We expect lower convective coverage today than the past few days, leading to less confidence in impacts to the terminals. Thunderstorms are more likely closer to the coast and at OGB than the other TAF sites. Any convection will diminish in the evening with loss of heating. With drier air in place tonight, widespread ceiling restrictions appear less likely. However shallow moisture could still lead to fog at AGS EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The extended will feature active weather with mainly diurnal convection each day. There`s potential for severe storms on Thursday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$