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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 240230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 2220L: SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY MV EWRD INTO
FAR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM... MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE NOTED NO
CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN PUR CWA LAST FEW HRS. MAIN CONCERN THRU THE
OVRNGT AND FRI AM HRS WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS THIS SLOW MVG
FRONTAL BNDRY...ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WAVES TRACKING NEWRD ALONG
IT...SLOWLY SHIFTS EWRD. SO FAR...HYDROMET SHOWS MOST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW BTWN .5 AND 1.0 SO FAR AND THIS MATCHES UP
WELL W/ OUR QPF FCSTS THRU 06Z. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM THO DID
CHANGEPATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SRN AREAS AND OUT OVR
THE WATERS.

UPDATE 1910L: BROAD LOW PRES TROF W/ ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY DOWN ACROSS NYS... NUMEROUS
WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY AND RESULTING IN A
RATHER SLOW EWRD MVMNT... MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS W/ SOME VRY ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM W/ LESSER ACTION TO THE S
AND E. CONVECTION HAVING A TUF TIME HOLDING ON AS DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION W/ A COOL MOIST SRLY FLOW
IN PLACE. WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD THUNDER WRN HALF OF THE FA NXT
SEVERAL HRS OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION W/ THE
BEST AREA OF PRECIP NOW ACROSS WRN AND NWRN AREAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING E AND SE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED
ATTM.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LGTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.  A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB