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000
FXUS61 KCAR 161113
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
713 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from Canada through Thursday
night. The high then slowly slides to the east, while a frontal
system gradually approaches from the west Friday, then crosses
the area Saturday. High pressure returns to the area Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
713 AM Update: Rain and snow showers continue to move across
the north this morning as seen on current radar mosaic. KFVE is
reporting snow at this hour, while lower elevation areas are
rain at this time with temperatures lifting into the upper 30s.
As the cold front continues to track eastward, showers will
begin to decrease in number. Showers will also transition to all
rain through the morning as temperatures warm. The previous
forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based
on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:
A weak cold front will continue to push across the forecast area
today, providing just enough of a source of lift for isolated to
scattered showers through the day today. Most of the showers
will be found across the north, closer to the parent low.
Showers may develop further south into the Interior Downeast
region through this afternoon. A few snow showers are possible
early this morning, especially across the North Woods and higher
terrain, but a transition to rain across the area is expected
through the later part of the morning. High temperatures will
lift into the upper 50s to around 60 Downeast through the coast
under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, but will only reach
the upper 40s across the north due to mostly cloudy skies and
showers across the area. Breezy NW winds are likely this
afternoon, especially in the presence of showers, with gusts to
20 mph possible.

Showers and cloud cover will quickly dissipate this evening as
high pressure returns to the area behind the weak cold front. As
winds dissipate into the overnight hours, some surface
decoupling is possible to allow for full radiational cooling,
and temperatures may dip into the upper 20s to around 30 across
the north and down to around freezing Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds at the surface and aloft through the
period. A northerly low level flow and 850mb moisture makes
thin cumulus fields likely for much of the area on Wednesday.
Given the very dry Canadian air mass and deep mixing expected,
did reduce dew points below guidance and raise high temps above
guidance. The same applies for Thursday, but expect less cloud
cover with increasing subsidence. Temperatures will be a bit
warmer Thursday except at the coast where the afternoon sea
breeze will develop. Decent radiational cooling will occur both
Wednesday and Thursday nights with lows dropping into the upper
20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trended towards less clouds and PoPs on Friday as the high
remains anchored over the area. This also prompted an upward
trend in the high temp forecast on Friday. The ridge finally
breaks down Friday night and a weakening occlusion moves through
the area Friday night. There is not an impressive draw of
moisture or lift with the front. Dynamics are slightly better
for Downeast by late Friday night into Saturday morning and that
area may receive a few tenths of an inch of rainfall. The
occlusion exits Saturday morning and the trailing cold front
arrives in the afternoon. The lag between the two features
should enable highs to climb into the upper 50s across most of
the area...except Downeast where clouds and rain linger much of
the day.

An rapidly weakening upper trough arrives later Saturday
afternoon and will create some instability with decent mid-level
lapse rates possible, but timing is a bit late in the day and
moisture appears to be lacking. Expect some showers in the North
Woods, but that should quickly diminish Saturday evening.

Clearing and high pressure returns Saturday night into Monday
with another round of cool and very dry Canadian high pressure.
Once again, the challenge becomes the impact of a very deep
mixed layer on high temps and dew points for Sunday and Monday.
Highs will be in the 50s with a few readings over 60F possible
by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions continue, though brief MVFR/IFR
cigs may move in across northern terminals early this morning as
isolated rain and snow showers move through the area. Mainly
VFR conditions continue through the day today, with occasional
MVFR possible in any lingering showers. VFR tonight. NW winds
increasing to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon with gusts to 20 kts,
then NW around 5 kts tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday into Friday...VFR with excellent vis and cigs
generally above Fl050. North winds 10 to 15 kt on Wednesday
shifting to light and variable Thursday, and then southerly 10
to 15 kt by Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs and
showers. South winds becoming southwesterly 5 to 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will remain below small craft advisory
conditions today through tonight, with seas 3 to 5 ft. NW winds
may briefly gust towards 20 kts this evening.

SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected in terms of fog,
winds or seas. There is a chance of SCA conditions on Saturday,
but stability will probably prevent too many gusts to 25 kt.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...AStrauser/MCW
Marine...AStrauser/MCW