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FXUS61 KCAR 070156
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
956 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
will then build over the area from the northwest later tonight
into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will slide south of the area
Wednesday and again on Thursday. A new low may develop to our
south on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
950 pm update...The cold front is continues to progress through
northern zones with scattered showers. The shower activity will
diminish in the next few hours as the front continues to move
southward through the night. Since drier air will not reach the
coast until later in the night, fog has developed in portions of
coastal Hancock and Washington counties, but should lift well
before daybreak. Much cooler 925/850mb temps arrive tonight into
Tuesday and will result in much lower high temps in northern
zones Tuesday. Highs may not be much different in Bangor due to
weaker cold advection and a deep mixed layer on Tuesday. The
coast will actually be quite a bit warmer tomorrow than today
due to the offshore winds.

Previous discussion...
The weak cold front boundary will move SE out over the waters
tonight, ushering in high pressure. For this evening, breaks the
in the low cloud cover will help support convection with the
associated instability along the front. With the CAPE values
above 100J/kg and steep lapse rates across the north, cannot
rule our some isolated thunderstorms embedded in the scattered
showers this evening. As the front exits, some lingering showers
are expected with any left over diurnal heating. By tonight,
clouds will decrease with the high pressure settling in. The S
flow along the coast will remain until after midnight when light
NW winds move in. During this time before midnight, the marine
layer is expected to move onshore, causing patchy to areas of
fog for Downeast and across the waters. Temps will be cooler
night with the weak cold front passage.

For Tuesday, high pressure will settle in making for mostly
sunny skies and breezy NW winds. Vorticity maps show some
shortwave energy moving across the north in the afternoon,
causing some clouds to build in, but should be short lived. Due
to the NW flow and increasing clouds, areas in the north will be
in the low 60s while the south will be in the upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upr trof will be heading into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday
evening with flow transitioning to a zonal flow. At the surface,
ridge axis will be nosing into the area overnight before
shifting east into Canada Wednesday morning. Fairly potent s/wv
will be rounding the base of the trof with inland low moving
into New England. As it does it will begin spreading showers
into the CWA after 18z. Secondary cyclogenesis occurs off of the
coast late Wednesday night with inland low beginning to fill.
How far south this low tracks will determine axis of heaviest
rainfall. 12z NAM is the furthest north with lopres as well as
the qpf axis, while remaining operational members and their
ensembles are just slightly further south with both. Have kept
likely pops confined south of a Moosehead to Danforth line with
chc pops further to the north. As system heads east Thursday
morning it will take pcpn with it. However, given lingering upr
lvl trof still in the vicinity have kept slgt chc for showers
during the day on Thursday, especially given diurnal convection.

Temps likely to top out in the lower 60s on Wednesday, in the lower
50s along the coast with onshore flow. Thursday/s maxes will be a
degree or two lower but overall near normal temps expected
throughout the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the ever persistent longwave trof draped fm the Maritimes
twd the Midwest a similar system to Wednesday night will be
approaching the area at the end of the week. Latest 12z guidance
has trended just a smidge further to the south with the
heaviest rainfall. Expecting rain to move into the region toward
midnight Thursday night and out of the area by midnight Friday
night. Once again, northern zones will be hard-pressed to see
any heavier rainfall as most of it will remain acrs the Downeast
areas given the latest guidance. Once the system clears out
Saturday evening, slgt chc to chc pops lingers Sunday into
Monday.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be below normal in clouds
and rain before moderating to near/above normal on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for all terminals this evening with some
MVFR in scattered showers. Possible isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions tonight and Tuesday. Light
and variable winds tonight, then NW winds 5-15 kts Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night...VFR. NW 5-10kts.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Becoming MVFR south in the
afternoon in light showers. Light NE-SE winds Wednesday
afternoon becoming E 5- 10kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. NE 5-10kts.

Thursday night-Saturday...MVFR south with VFR north. ENE
5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through
Thursday. Winds will increase out of the northeast beginning
Thursday night with marginal gusts over the outer waters on
Friday. Seas increase above 5ft Friday night and remain elevated
through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/MCW/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/MCW/Buster