Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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603 FXUS61 KCAR 010823 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 323 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes today and lift across northern Maine Wednesday into Wednesday night. It will then move into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure will build toward the area late in the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes this Morning then move across Northern Maine this afternoon into this evening. Warmer air will be pushing northward across the State today as the low approaches so even though precipitation is expected to start as snow, a change to mixed precipitation and rain will occur later this morning. Rain is expected for the afternoon into the evening. Precipitation is then expected to change back to mixed then snow late tonight as the low moves off to the north and colder air moves in behind the low. Will use a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS using the precipitation from thickness tool for precipitation type.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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System currently bringing tornado outbreak to the Plains wl head northeast thru the middle of the week and wl be located in the vicinity of nrn Maine by 12z Thur. Models hv trended slower with this system ovr the past day of runs thus expect rain to exist by 12z acrs all but the Allagash where ptype wl lkly be a mix or straight snow. Cold air wl advect in thru the mrng hrs with far nw likely the only area to see arnd 1 inch accum with a dusting to less than 1/2 inch elsewhere. Temps on Thur wl fall throughout the day with NW winds expected to gust to nr 30-35kts at times. Winds look to appch wind advisory criteria for coastal Hancock and Washington counties after 15z Thur, thus hv issued wind advisory for this time with the possibility of extndg advisory further to the north by later shifts. Higher terrain looks to hit advisory criteria on Thur afternoon but thinking is that it wl not be widespread enuf to justify advisory attm. Cyclonic flow conts Thur night and Fri as system departs into the Maritimes. Expect pressure gradient to weaken by mrng as hipres begins to build in fm the Great Lakes. Wk wv looks to emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast drg the day Friday per the latest NAM/GFS and looks to mv well south of the waters ovrngt.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure wl build in on Sat and crest ovr the CWA Sun into Sun ngt. Sat wl lkly be the coldest day with maxes in the single digits for the North Woods and St. John Vly and arnd 20F for Downeast areas. With sunny skies and H9 temps warming on Sun expect temps to be warmer than Sat but still a few degrees blo normal. By early next week question centers arnd how quickly pcpn mvs into area fm the west. 00z EC and CMC indicate pcpn mvs in aft 06z Tue in overrunning. GFS delays pcpn until Tue aftn with highly amplified ridge building ahd of H5 low mvg thru Prairie Provinces.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect IFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR improving to low MVFR expected Thur morning for northern terminals in cyclonic flow and mixed precipitation. VFR expected at BHB and BGR Thur morning through the weekend. Northern terminals will likely become VFR Thur night through the weekend. NW winds will gust to 30-35kts on Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: For sustained winds have used the NAM. Will keep the SCA in place through tonight since wind gusts not expected to exceed gale until early Thursday. For Waves: A strong southerly fetch will develop across the Gulf of Maine today and tonight. Wave heights will build to around 12 feet/10-12 seconds by late tonight. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to populate wave grids. SHORT TERM: Gales are expected Thur morning through late Thursday night on all waters. Seas will range from 6 to 12 feet through this time. May see SCA conditions through Friday morning before winds and seas drop under advisory levels.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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