Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261733 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1233 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOON UPDATE... NO CHANGES NEEDED. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 6AM UPDATE... ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F. MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY. THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED. SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN FLOW SETS UP. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS STEADILY NORTH TO FVE IN THE EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR AND BHB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL BE 40 TO 50 KTS THIS EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A THREAT AS WELL. SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER IN THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB

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