Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222009 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG) SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO WED EVE. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED. OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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