Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050251 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 951 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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935 PM UPDATE: AGAIN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST CLD CVR AND HRLY TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST ATTM. WITH REGARD TO CLD CVR...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FA HAS MSLY CLDY SKIES...SO WE NO LONGER REFERENCE PTLY CLDY SKIES FOR ANY PTN OF TNGT. OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING SLOWER THAN PREV FCST GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH A WEAK...BUT STILL DISTINCT SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVG SE THRU NRN ME...CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING THE CARIBOU AREA. TEMPS STILL HAVE A CHC TO CATCH UP UP TO FCST LOWS ACROSS THE FA LATER TNGT...SO WE HELD OFF ON MAKING CHGS TO OVRNGT FCST LOWS POSTED AT 7 AM. ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE SNOW SHIELD FROM THIS LOW. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY...WITH LESSER SNOW CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS A RIDGE BUILDS...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SUBZERO READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT LOW TEENS WITH MID TEENS ON THE COAST. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE-BASED LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE KEY WILL BE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW FAST IT MOVES EAST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. HOWEVER...SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MAINE COAST LATER TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE CHANCE TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LARGE STORM, IT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED IN SPITE OF THE TROUGH BEING VERY LARGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN LOTS OF SNOW IS LOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MACHIAS FRIDAY EVENING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HUL NORTHWARD UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE IFR VIS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FVE. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 705 PM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS IN FAVOR OF A GALE WRNG FOR OUTER MZS050-051 FROM 21Z FRI-06Z SAT AND AN SCA FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM 17Z FRI TIL 06Z SAT BASED ON FCST WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE PRIOR AFTN FCST UPDATE FOR THIS TM PD...CORRESPONDING THE NW PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATE TONIGHT THU FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR GALE FRIDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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