Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041603 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH LABOR DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MIDDAY UPDATE...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAC SAINT JEAN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING WELL AT HAND WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE NOON EDT OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A POWERFUL VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS SUCH AS THE ALLAGASH...PRESQUE ISLE...HOULTON AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES AT SFC AND ALOFT WL BE THE RULE ON SATURDAY. SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS ARND 80F WL MAKE A PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT WITH H5 RIDGE AXIS FLATTENING BY 12Z SUN. SRLY FLOW ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO RMN ABV NORMAL FOR SUN MRNG. H5 LOW WL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS WL INDUCE SFC LOW DVLPMNT ACRS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND RESULT IN FRONTAL BNDRY EXTNDG EWD ACRS SRN CANADA AND RESIDING NORTH OF CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST REGARDING HOW DEEP LOPRES WL BE BY 12Z MON AS WELL AS LOCATION. THUS WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES FOR SUN NGT AND MONDAY. MONDAY COULD VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH H9 TEMPS CLIMBING ABV 20C DRG THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS CLOSER MON NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS PROGGED ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE. FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR DRG THE DAY TUE PER GFS/CMC WITH EC BEING PRETTY ILL-DEFINED. HIPRES WL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUE NGT BFR ANOTHER SFC BNDRY APPCHS ON WED. FRCG FM FROPA ALONG WITH DIURNAL HTG WL LKLY LEAD TO TSTMS WED AFTN AND EVNG. FOLLOWING FROPA THUR MRNG EXPECT TEMPS WL COOL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY SO AT KPQI AND KHUL. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS INTO TUESDAY. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL SLACKEN TODAY AND THE WIND WILL DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .CLIMATE... AUGUST WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS PAST AUGUST PLEASE CHECK THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...CB/MCW/FARRAR MARINE...CB/MCW/FARRAR CLIMATE...CB

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