Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241433 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 933 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM. THE NORTHERN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE SOUTHERN SNOW WILL INTENSIFY. FOR THE MOST PART, THE FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH BY A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SNOW AND ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017- 029-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006- 030-031. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA

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