Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211509 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1009 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED W/MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITION. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO BRING THEM UP W/SOME WEAK WAA OCCURRING PER THE LATEST 12Z UA. ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON MAXES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. NORLUN TYPE SETUP LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER W/LOW WELL S OF THE CWA AND INVERTED TROF SETTING UP. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL BE MONITORING THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND STEADY TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE VERY SHALLOW COLUMN OF MOISTURE WILL TOP OUT NEAR H900 IN NORTHERN ZONES AND UP TO H850 NEAR THE COAST. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE RESOLVED BY NWP WILL BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY...MOSTLY IN THE OUTER ISLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY HOLD THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING ONSHORE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW INLAND, AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST, TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL JUST REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OUR FOCUS GOING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE ON A LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WELL TO OUR WEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOME NORTHERN SITES SO WILL MENTION CHC FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL THEN PULL AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME DRYING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOME SHOWERS DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TERM: LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, LIKELY REQUIRING A GALE OR A STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/BLOOMER MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/BLOOMER

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