Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060314 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1014 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 10PM UPDATE... CIRRUS IS MOVING OFFSHORE AND WINDS ARE DECREASING. AS A RESULT...THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WHATS LEFT OF HI/MID CLD CVR SHOULD CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SE OF THE FA OVRNGT...WITH CLRG ADVCG FROM NRN ME LATE THIS AFTN TO THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE TNGT. WITH A WSW TO ENE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS THE FA SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS LATE LAST WEEK...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ACROSS BROAD VLY AREAS ARND SUNSET AND LIGHTEN TO A GENTLE BREEZE OVR HIER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN... THIS WILL RESULT IN SIG VLY TO HILL TOP OVRNGT LOW TEMP RANGES ACROSS THE REGION...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND W. BASED ON PROJECTED LATE NGT 925MB TEMPS OF ARND -20 DEG C AND A CONSERVATIVE SFC BASE INVSN STRENGTH OF 10 TO 15 DEG C...COLDEST VLY LCTNS OVR THE WRN ST JOHN AND ALLAGASH RVR BASINS COULD DROP BLO 25 BELOW ZERO F. ELSEWHERE...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TENS BLO ZERO AND ARND ZERO ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECOVER FRI MORN UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES TO REACH FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TEENS N TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST. WITH STEEPENING SFC-500M LAPSE RATES BY AFTN...WIND SPEEDS ALF OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA WITH 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE S. CLDNSS BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE DAY FRI OVR THE FAR NW HOLDING OFF TIL LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE SE AS LOW AND MID LVL RETURN FLOW WARM ADVCN/OVRRNG COMMENCES. CANNOT RULE SCT SN SHWRS REACHING FAR NW ME PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT...WITH ANY SN ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD THRU FRI NGT...WITH MVFR CLGS/VSBYS WITH SN SHWRS POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRI NGT AT KFVE. SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA AND SCA/FZGSPY ADV FOR LATER TNGT INTO FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SCA WITH FZGSPY BECOMING LIGHT FRI AFTN. WINDS SHOULD CONT TO DIMINISH FRI EVE...THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT VERY LATE FRI NGT. WV HTS WERE SIG ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE WV HTS...SO WE BEGAN THE NEAR TERM WITH BUOY OBSVD WV HTS...THEN GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD WW3 WV GUIDANCE BY FRI AFTN. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/MCW SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...VJN/MCW/ MARINE...VJN/MCW/

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