Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261448 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure will build across the region Saturday then move to the east Sunday. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1045 am update... Cdfnt conts to hang out acrs Quebec with convection riding along the bndry. Closer to home, isold showers are mvg acrs srn zones at this hour and hv updated fcst to reflect this area. Question bcms how much convection can dvlp acrs the area this aftn. Current SPC mesoanalysis page and 12z raob from CAR indicates airmass wl destabilize as htg occurs and sun is breaking thru the low clds north of a Greenville-Houlton line. Isold showers are breaking out acrs nrn Piscataquis at this time and wl keep an eye on possibly updating pops to more sctd this aftn as latest HRRR indicating convection aft 18z nr ern border. No other chgs needed at this time. Previous Discussion... A cold front will cross the region today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in advance of the front. The cold front will then exit the Downeast coast early tonight. High pressure will build east toward the region later tonight. Cloud cover will decrease early tonight, with mostly clear skies overnight. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s across the forecast area, with slightly cooler temperatures along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s north, to the upper 50s to around 60 Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong high pressure will build in from the west during the day Saturday. This system is expected to crest over the region early Saturday evening then move to the east into the Atlantic late Saturday night and during Sunday. This pattern will bring mostly dry conditions to the area into Sunday. A cold front is then expected to approach from the west later Sunday which is expected to introduce showers into the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is expected to move across the region late Sunday night and into the day Monday bringing showers to the area. High pressure will then move in from the west Monday night and crest over the state Tuesday morning. Another cold front is expected to approach from the west during the day Tuesday and cross the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which is expected to result in showers. Cooler air with then move in behind this front later Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to LIFR, will occur across the region early this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR levels later this morning. Variable conditions are possible again this afternoon with any showers or thunderstorms. VFR conditions are expected tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected late Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Cancelled SCA for outer waters as seas are below 5 feet. SHORT TERM: For the sustained winds Saturday and Sunday will initialize the grids with the NAM12 then lower the model winds by 10 percent due to relatively cold sea surface temperature. Will transition to the Superblend winds late Sunday. For Waves: Expect wind wave to continue to dominate through Monday with a secondary southeasterly long period wave system (1 foot/14 seconds). Gaston is expected to become a hurricane over the Weekend in the Atlantic. Expect long period swell from this system to build to around 4 feet/13-14 seconds late Monday into Tuesday as Gaston moves well to the east over the Atlantic. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model (NWPS) to populate the wave grids. Will lower NWPS wave heights by 1 foot Saturday and Sunday as boundary conditions appear a little high.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Farrar/Norcross/Mignone

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