Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030541 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY; SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED NATURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS

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