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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 161637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MEAN WHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1215 PM UPDATE: BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...WE DELAYED
THE ONSET OF RN IN OUR WX GRIDS 1 HOUR FROM NOW TIL 00Z. DESPITE
THIS DELAY...ONCE RN SPREADS INTO THE FA FROM QB PROV...IT WILL
OVERSPREAD NRN AND CNTRL PTS OF THE FA QUICKLY BY THE ERLY EVE HOURS
AND MORE SLOWLY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS...MORE TOWARD THE MID TO LATE
EVE HRS. WE AGAIN MODIFIED HI TEMPS ONE MORE TM TO TRY TO KEEP UP
WITH RECENT HRLY TEMP OBS.

1000 AM UPDATE: WE OPTD TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET TMG OF SHWRS/STEADY
RN TIL LATER IN THE AFTN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FA...BASED ON
LATEST SAT AND RADAR REF IMAGERY. WE ALSO DID PRELIM WORK TO
UPDATE POPS FOR TNGT AND MON BASED ON FCST QPF FOR EACH 6 HR PD.
LASTLY...WE TRIED TO UPDATE HI TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSVD HRLY
TEMP TRENDS WHICH SHOWED TEMPS RISING NEAR FCST HIGHS OVR DOWNEAST
AREAS AS OF 14Z. THINKING HERE IS THAT THE RATE OF RISE SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AS GRAD WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY THIS AFTN...PROMOTING
AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE.

0600 AM UPDATE: HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TO SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF CLOUD COVER BASED
ON SATELLITE DATA.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY
LOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GREAT LAKES LOW CROSSES QUEBEC PROVINCE. AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PASS TO THE
NORTH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER AIR MASS TO
ENTER REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. FOR WIND GRIDS
HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GMOS USING 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED
WINDS FOR GUSTS. TEMPERATURE GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS.
BASED ON VERIFICATION WILL LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE 2 DEGREES AND
INCREASE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 3 DEGREES. FOR DEW POINTS HAVE USED
THE GEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS EARLY ESPECIALLY IN NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FROM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THEN
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS WITH
GMOS. WILL ADJUST POPS LOWER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE LOWER BASED ON
VERIFICATION NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
START DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40 THEN USED 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS FOR
GUST SPEED. WILL TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE SOUTHWARD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT THIS
WAVE GROUP TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3-4 FEET /8-9 SECOND
LONG PERIOD WAVES WITH SECONDARY WIND WAVE GROUP. SUSPECT HIGH
BIAS FROM MODELS WITH WIND WAVES...SO WILL LOWER 1 FOOT THROUGH
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE