Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221904 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 304 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary across central maine this evening will dissipate. high pressure will build across the region monday. low pressure will lift north across the region tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A frontal boundary was situated across northern Maine late this afternoon. The combination of weak convergence along the front and diurnal instability has resulted in a few showers developing in the vicinity of the boundary, mainly from the Katahdin region north. There have been a few lightning strikes to the east of the ME/NB border but none noted across our area attm. Will continue to mention scattered showers and isolated tstms through late afternoon north of the Katahdin region before any activity diminishes quickly with the lose of heating early this evening. Elsewhere, a weak area of low pressure east of Cape Cod will continue to weaken as it lifts northeast toward western Nova Scotia. Downeast Maine could see a few showers through early evening, especially the Eastport area. Otherwise, expect party to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows generally in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Monday is shaping up as a fine spring day as a weak area of high pressure at the surface builds across and an upper level low remains to our south. It will continue unseasonably warm for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the region, except in the mid 60s to around 70 near the immediate coast with an onshore flow expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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All of the models are in good agreement through the short term period. A weak high pressure ridge will be retreating from out area as a trough from a cold core low east of Delmarva moves into the northern Gulf of Maine. A low west of James Bay with a cold front extending south to western IA will work its way towards Maine through the period. Tuesday morning the cold core Low will track north to the coast of NY pushing the trough associated with the low into southern Maine. Tuesday evening the cold core low moves over Cape Cod, the trough moves into northern Maine. The system over Canada continues to move east, with the front through western Quebec, through the central Great Lakes, into IN. Wednesday morning the cold core low moves into southeast Maine/southwest New Brunswick. The Canadian front moves to central Quebec, through the eastern Great Lakes, into western PA. By the end of the period the cold core low moves into eastern New Brunswick, the front moving across Quebec moves into northern Maine. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front will cross the cwa Wednesday night with some showers and the possibility of an evening thunderstorm. The front will stall to the south of the area Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the north of the area to settle into the maritimes Friday as an upper level ridge builds across the area. the weather pattern Friday into the weekend remains somewhat uncertain. Thursday looks mainly dry, but some showers are possible friday as a frontal boundary moves into the area. at this time it looks like saturday may end up dry with another chance of showers Sunday. Although there will be some on and off again shower chances, much of the time will be rain free. The air mass will support above average temperatures much of the time, but if one of the days has enough cloud cover and shower activity around temps could be closer to seasonal averages.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: There could be VCSH/VCTS KCAR/KPQI terminals through 22z today otherwise VFR all site through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions all sites at the start of the period, increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings overnight becoming MVFR BHB and BGR Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions will extend to HUL by early afternoon then into CAR, PQI, and FVE early evening. MVFR with scattered showers will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. IFR conditions early afternoon Wednesday FVE, spreading to the other sites Wednesday evening as a cold front moves into central Maine. MVFR conditions return early Thursday morning, the VFR conditions all sites Thursday afternoon as the remnants of the front move into New Brunswick. High pressure will build across bringing VFR conditions to all sites Thursday night and will remain through the end of the period.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: An SCA is in effect starting 11 pm tonight and into Mon afternoon, mainly for seas. SHORT TERM: An SCA for seas may be required Wednesday afternoon as an upper low tracks through the Gulf of Maine, otherwise winds and seas below SCA criteria.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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A Total of 4.8" of snow has been observed this May at Caribou. This makes May 2016 the 4th snowiest on record. the all-time record of 10.9" of snow was observed in 1967.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Norton Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/Norton Marine...Duda/Norton Climate...cb

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