Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 261632 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1132 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MIDDAY UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE NORTH REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STRAY INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY. ORGNL DISC: THE RIDGE AXIS OF A LARGE AND STRONG ARCTIC HI PRES SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PERSIST TDY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...SOME MID AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM LOW PRES EXITING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST COULD REACH AS FAR N AS DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATER TDY AND CONTG INTO THIS EVE...WITH CI POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR N AS NRN ME. CLDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS THE LOW MOVES WELL OE INTO THE OPEN ATLC. WITH MDTLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...AFTN HI TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL TDY AND AGAIN ON FRI. THE W-E AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVR OUR FA IS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE THIS EVE AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN OVR SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS. HI CLDNSS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT EVEN OVR NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT DESPITE THIS...OVRNGT LOWS THU NGT WILL STILL BE WELL BLO ZERO AT MST LCTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND CREATE ANOTHER TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COULD PROVIDE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY THRU FRI WITH A BRIEF INTERVAL OR TWO OF MVFR SC CLGS WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE UNTIL ERLY AFTN TDY AT NRN MOST TAF SITES. SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT IFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW. VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA NW WIND GUSTS WILL CONT TIL ABOUT 6-7 AM THIS MORN. AFTERWARDS...MDT FZGSPY WILL CONT ACROSS THE WATERS FOR MOST OF TDY AND AGAIN OVRNGT TNGT INTO FRI MORN...WITH A BREAK TO LGT FZGSPY POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THIS BREAK...IT JUST MADE SENSE TO CONT THE CURRENT FZGSPY ADV TIL 10 AM FRI. BLENDED CURRENT BUOY OBSVD WV HTS...WHICH WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE TO WW3 BY THIS EVE...AND CONT WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE TNGT THRU FRI. SHORT TERM: NO CLEAR CUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.