Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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588 FXUS61 KCAR 192211 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 611 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry cold front will push through the state tonight, ushering in cooler and drier air. High pressure in control this weekend with mostly sunny skies and well above average temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 6:11 PM Update...A mild evening with south to southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front. Even after sunset temps are still mostly in the l/m 60s for most inland areas. Area radars showing a line of showers moving into western Aroostook County. The best chance of showers this evening will be to the north of the Katahdin Region, and the last of the showers should come to an end by around midnight. Rainfall amounts will be very light and on the order of less than 0.10". Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest observations, radar and satellite trends, and near term model trends. Previous discussion... Warm and gusty today with strong SW winds ahead of an approaching cold front. We mixed into some of the stronger winds at 925mb, plus there is a 10mb surface pressure gradient across the state. That is supporting some wind gusts near 30mph in open areas. Some fog is hanging along the immediate coast of Downeast Maine and that is expected to mostly lift into Washington county this evening before dissipating. Winds will decrease a bit after sunset, but will remain gusty as the surface cold front approaches. The front will mostly be dry except for a few showers across the Northwoods tonight. Tomorrow will be a nice day although it will be a little cooler as a drier airmass on NW winds move into the region. It will be mostly sunny with breezy NW winds and temperatures trending about 10 to 15 degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our dry and mild weather will continue through the weekend as a strong ridge high pressure builds in from the west. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows from the low 30s north to the upper 30s Downeast. High pressure both surface and aloft building onto the east coast will then bring plenty of sunshine Saturday as highs reach the 50s north and low 60s Downeast. Sunday will be even warmer as the upper level ridge builds over with highs in the 60s throughout the area. However, some moisture topping the ridge combined with a bit of warm advection sliding north behind the surface high pressure may produce some mid and high cloudiness, especially across the north, on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A southerly flow will increase Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves to our east into the open Atlantic. Dry weather will persist into early Monday. A band of moisture may then approach late Monday along a boundary between departing high pressure and a large trough approaching from the upper Midwest. Some showers will become possible late Monday into Monday night along this boundary. The midwestern trough will intensify and deepen on Tuesday as the high to our east anchors in place. This will result in a strengthening gradient between the high to our east and the trough pushing in from the west, and as a result, an increasing south wind Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some showers, possibly heavy, may occur along the front as it pushes in from the west Tuesday night, and south winds may become very strong by Tuesday night. The front is expected to push to our east later Wednesday into Wednesday night. There continues to be a possibility that a secondary low will form along the front off the southeast coast and race north, possibly bringing rain, late in the week. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the next 24hrs. Coastal fog will remain along the immediate coastline and won`t impact any TAF terminals. A mostly dry cold front will push through the state tonight allowing for winds to stay gusty through late this afternoon out of the SW. Winds will shift to the NW and become gusty once again in the afternoon hours. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend and into early Monday. Conditions may lower to MVFR late Monday in lower clouds and showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Strong SW winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue over the waters through most of the night, allowing for seas to build. A small craft advisory is in effect through tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the NW during the day tomorrow as the cold front quickly pushes offshore. Seas will slowly decrease to below 5 feet through the morning hours. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA this weekend into Monday as high pressure pushes off the east coast. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Dumont Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Dumont/Bloomer Marine...CB/Dumont/Bloomer

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