Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180116 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 916 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while Hurricane Jose approaches southeast New England. Jose will turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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9:16 PM Update...Low clouds are visible on the GOES-16 fog channel spreading north across the Downeast region. The stratus will continue to advect to the north overnight. Areas of fog have formed along the coast. The most recent observation from Eastport had the visibility at 2 miles with 3/4 of a mile at Bar Harbor. A special weather statement was issued for coastal Hancock and coastal Washington Counties to highlight the fog potential tonight into Monday morning. No significant changes are planned at this time, with mainly minor adjustments based on the latest observations and satellite trends. Previous discussion... The warm and humid air mass will continue to be the dominant factor over the area through Monday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. There is a weak boundary just to the north of the state that may help spark isolated showers or even a thundershower in northern Aroostook County this evening. Otherwise, temperatures will slowly creep down to the upper 50s to near 60F tonight as fog forms...mostly after midnight. Fog and low clouds will arrive along the coast earliest as the fog has lingered just offshore and is starting to creep back inland at this time. By later tonight into the morning, the fog could be dense and an advisory may be needed. Some drizzle may also occur in upslope areas and towards the coast by later in the night. A more southerly onshore flow will develop by Monday morning. This will help prolong the fog and low clouds and keep Monday`s highs reduced compared to today...except in the North Woods where less cloud is anticipated and a few convective showers could develop. The fog and low clouds will likely produce drizzle towards the coast much of the day. Humid conditions remain through the period with dew points again rising to the low to mid 60s by Monday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain ridged across the region Monday night, while Hurricane Jose lifts toward southern New England. Partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers is expected across northern areas Monday night. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers is expected Downeast Monday night. High pressure will remain ridged north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, with Hurricane Jose to the south though uncertainty still exists regarding the exact track of the storm. Uncertainty also exists regarding rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Stronger high pressure to the north would limit rain amounts and the northern extent of rain. Weaker ridging would allow more moisture to be drawn north. A coastal front or convergence zone could develop across Downeast areas and help focus precipitation. The better chances of rain and greater rainfall totals are generally expected Downeast, with lesser totals to the north. However, exact totals are still uncertain. High pressure should begin to build south later Wednesday. Rain chances should begin to decrease Wednesday afternoon, with the most persistent rains Downeast. Fog, most extensive Downeast, should be a concern both Monday night and Tuesday night. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Tuesday/Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended models have a significantly different solution for the weather through most of the extended forecast. The GFS continues moving Hurricane Jose across the southern portions of the Gulf of Maine. Placing it east of Cape Cod and south of Eastport at the start of the extended period. Then as the extended period progresses drifts it to the southeast into the north Atlantic. Jose is then forecasted to return to the Cape Cod area early Monday morning. The ECMWF moves Jose into the coastal areas of NY and NJ where its forecast to remain stationary and to begin to fill, until it finally regresses into Delmarva Sunday afternoon and dissipates. Through all of the model differences with Jose, the models do agree that the state of Maine will remain under a high pressure ridge for most of the period with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms early in the period for Downeast Maine. By the end of the period. Both models are showing current tropical storm Maria east of Georgia and southeast of Outer Banks of North Carolina moving north. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will deteriorate later this evening as fog forms. In the case of coastal sites such as BHB, the fog will cause VLIFR to LIFR conditions and will likely affect all sites by late tonight. The fog slowly burns off Monday morning into MVFR cigs and gradually VFR in the afternoon. The coastal sites may stay IFR all day with an onshore flow. SHORT TERM: Variable conditions will occur with fog Monday night into early Tuesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north Tuesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions Tuesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Downeast Tuesday, with IFR/LIFR conditions Tuesday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north early Wednesday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Downeast Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday/Friday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog continues to be the dominant issue tonight and tomorrow. Long period south swell will gradually increase towards 4 or 5 feet by late tomorrow. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected Monday night into Wednesday. Seas will build Monday night into Wednesday. Winds will also increase to small craft advisory levels Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog Monday night into Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides and building seas will produce a threat of coastal flooding and minor overwash over several high tide cycles Tuesday into Wednesday. High surf will also be a concern with the building seas. $$ .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norton Aviation...CB/MCW/Norcross Marine...CB/MCW/Norcross Tides/Coastal Flooding...Norcross

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