Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231047 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 647 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL JUST ABOUT TO THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALSO TRANSITIONED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SINCE ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY IN NATURE UNTIL STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RAINFALL DATA FROM HYDROVIEW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE PAST SIX HOURS WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH AROUND ONE-HALF /0.50/ TO SIX-TENTHS /0.60/ OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS THE PAST SIX HOURS RANGED FROM ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ TO THREE-TENTHS /0.30/ OF AN INCH. SOME MINOR RISES WERE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RIVERS BUT ALL RIVERS WERE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY. VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE WERE DOWN TO ABOUT 1 MILE AT BAR HARBOR SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST AND PATCHY FOG UP NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LASTLY...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES ALL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS HAVING NOT FALLEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM... OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS... && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS... && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/ DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...DUDA/KHW MARINE...DUDA/KHW

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