Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311353 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 953 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM UPDATE...LIGH PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NE MAINE...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NW MAINE. THREAT OF OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ UPDATE...NORTON NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS

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