Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040213 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1013 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH...THOUGH LOCAL UPPER 30S COULD OCCUR IN THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURE WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE SUPER BLEND BUT WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY TRIGGER SOME SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SUN NIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS OF NOW, SO KEPT IT SHWRS. LOOKS LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SFC FEATURES JUST TO THE NORTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS TUESDAY PM AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COOL FRONT NEXT THURS, WITH MORE SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. OVERALL, GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF, AND CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN - BUT THE CANADIAN ALSO SPINS UP A COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW LATE IN ITS RUN, SO IT WASN`T STRONGLY CONSIDERED. IN GENERAL ANY EDITS TO POPS AND PRECIP TIMING WERE MADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. EXPECT LIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. FOR WAVES: WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL (AROUND 1 FOOT/11 SECONDS). AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WIND WAVE (AROUND 2 FEET/5 SECONDS) WILL BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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