Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220413 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight then move east of the region Sunday into Monday. A trough of low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update 12:10 AM: Have adjusted wind, dew point, and temperature based on latest observations. No other changes. Previous discussion... A chilly night upcoming and milder for Sunday. High pres expected to slide e overnight into Sunday. This will lead to some waa to start kicking overnight w/a return flow around the high. We tend to see some cold temps w/a setup such as this one setting up tonight. Decided to undercut the overnight temps by a few degrees w/some northern and western areas seeing the upper 20s. It looks like a decent inversion will set up later tonight as shown by the RAP and NAM12 soundings. There will be quite a variation in temps as low lying areas as far s as the downeast region will see temps in the 30s. Clouds are expected to move in later tonight w/most of thicker cloud cover across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Most of the cloudiness with be cirrus around 25,000 feet. For Sunday, the clouds will lift to the ene by the afternoon as the upper ridge moves across the region. This will allow for more sunshine and w/a light ese flow, temps should rise well into the 50s and 60s across the region. Areas close to the coast will be cooler w/the onshore flow. Fire Danger is a concern for Sunday. See the Fire Weather section below. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure moving to the east combined with strong upper level ridging will bring a mild night Sunday night followed by a sunny and warm day on Monday. A southerly breeze will increase on Monday behind departing high pressure. Monday night will be unseasonably warm as the circulation behind departing high pressure continues. Some low clouds may begin to stray in Downeast areas late at night as low level moisture increases. The southerly wind will increase on Tuesday in the increasing gradient between high pressure off to the east and a trough of low pressure approaching from the west. Low clouds will spread across the area as moisture continues to increase and some patchy mist or drizzle is possible, especially Downeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A digging trough of low pressure approaching form the Midwest will be pushing up against a strong ridge of high pressure to our east Tuesday night into Wednesday. A corridor of deep subtropical moisture will be channeled north our way Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing bands of showers, some possibly heavy, as the trough pushes east into our area. A wave of low pressure will likely form off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday, then channel north from there as very strong ridging well to our east holds the frontal boundary over our region. This will bring the potential for some bands of potentially heavy rain across the area later Wednesday into early Thursday. The moist frontal boundary should lift northeast and away from the area Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough lifts northeast. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR right into Sunday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into early Monday night. Conditions may lower to IFR Downeast late Monday night as some low clouds begin to spread in from the south. IFR to MVFR conditions are likely Tuesday into Wednesday in low clouds, some drizzle, and showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No issues on the waters. Winds will remain light 5 to 10 kts into Sunday w/a turn to ese by the afternoon. Seas will range 1 to 2 ft especially in the intra-coastal zone. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA Sunday night into Monday night. South winds may reach SCA on Tuesday and seas will likely build in response to the southerly winds. A SCA or Gale will likely be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for strong south winds. Seas will continue to build due to the southerly fetch possibly reaching 10-15 ft on Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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