Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 211624 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1224 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50 WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES IS FCST OVR EXTREME SERN ONT TUE AM W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWRD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWRD UP INTO NRN AREAS TUE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS ENEWRD TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS MORE NRN LOW TO WEAKEN AS A STRONGER SEC LOW TAKES OVR VCNTY OF ERN MASS/NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY ERLY WED. INITIALLY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON TUE W/ SOME LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT THEN EXPECT MORE WDSPRD PRECIP TO SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT AS THIS MORE BROAD AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE FA BY LATE WED. EXPECT 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OF PRECIP W/ THIS SYSTEM. WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON TUE W/ MILD CONDS PERSISTING TUE NGT. CLDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS NR OR MAYBE JUST A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRES CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA THO PRECIP COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR E AND N INTO WED NGT. THIS TREND CONTS INTO THU W/ STILL CHC POPS ACROSS THE E WHILE HIGH PRES FINALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT AND THEN CREST THE AREA LATER FRI AS THE NXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVR THE GRT LAKES IN THIS CONTG ACTIVE PTRN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWRD TOWARD OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CHC POPS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER FRI/FRI NGT WHILE TH REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE HOLDS THINGS BACK UNTIL SAT. ALL MODELS THEN KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED THRU SUN AS A VRY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL AVG A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS OUR NRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BRING A PD OF LESS THAN VFR CONDS TO OUR NRN TAF SITES ON TUE WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MORE WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CONDS BACK TO THE AREA TUE NGT THRU WED W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATER WED NGT INTO THE AS THIS SYSTEM MVS E AND HIGH PRES BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES W/ VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT SRLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS ABV 5 FT LATER TUE. CAA LATE WED WILL LIKELY PUSH BOTH SEAS AND WNDS INTO SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW HYDROLOGY...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.