Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 291345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon followed by
high pressure on Sunday. Low pressure tracking to our west will
lift a warm front across our region on Monday. An occluded front
will push into the area Monday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --945 AM Update:
- Reduced pops across the area for today. Lower levels are very
dry. Precip previously expected in the Down East region isn`t
materializing and another area in Quebec ahead of the cold
front is weakening rapidly.
- Winds remain the big factor this afternoon and tonight with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times in a deep mixed layer that will
emerge once the mid-level clouds move east and surface heating
- Increased clouds for most of the area on Sunday.
Orgnl Disc: Thin ST and shallow fog are currently being mixed
out by drier air alf. This will leave ptly to mcldy skies for
the balance of the morn into erly aftn with sct to numerous
shwrs...spcly ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas as a fast movg s/wv
from Srn QB crosses the region. Rnfl amts will be lgt, with
lctns receiving measurable msly receiving 0.05 inches or less.
Behind this system, skies should clr across the region during
the remainder of the aftn as a secondary cold front crosses the
region. Winds will increase dramatically by aftn spcly with the
passage of the cold front, with steep sfc-1000m lapse rates
allowing for Wrly wind gusts reaching the 30 to 40 mph by late
aftn due to strong winds alf. Before the arrival of the cooler
air behind the front, we should have one last day of 60 deg+ hi
temps with warmest lctns Downeast reach arnd 70 deg.
With mdtly strong llvl cold advcn, temps will fall fairly
quickly this eve with contd clr skies and breezy NW winds with
ovrngt lows reaching near seasonal norms by erly sat morn as
winds subside late tngt.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure across the area will bring plenty of sunshine on
Sunday. The airmass will be drier than recent days with temperatures
near normal across the area. Low pressure approaching from the
Plains will lift a warm front toward the area Monday night. This
will bring increasing clouds and rain into central areas around
midnight. The rain will then push north as the warm front lifts
across the region early Monday morning. Models seem to disagree
about how far north the warm frontal band and rain lifts on Monday
with the NAM keeping some rain in central areas but the GFS lifting
the front north across the northern part of our region. For now will
go definite rain in north central areas with just likely rain
far north and interior Downeast. Coastal areas will have chance
rain on Monday.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Both the NAM and the GFS have the front lifting north Monday night
with some lingering light rain or drizzle over the north and just
mostly cloudy skies with a chance for spotty showers Downeast. Humid
air will return to the area and some fog will be likely Monday
night. An occluding front will move through overnight bringing a
band of rain across the area. Tuesday will remain mostly cloudy
and humid with a chance of showers as the low lifts north and
northwest and a murky warm sector passes across our area. The
unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday with clouds and
some showers as the low lifts to our northeast and the upper
trough slides across our region. High pressure may briefly bring
partial sunshine on Thursday. However, another storm approaching
from the southwest may bring increasing clouds and a chance for
some rain on Friday, especially Downeast.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TAF sites are currently transitioning from LIFR to
VFR erly this morn as thin ST and shallow for are currently be
mixed out by drier air alf. VFR conditions will cont thru the
remainder of the day with unlmtd VFR tngt.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure Sunday
into Sunday evening. Conditions will lower to MVFR then IFR
from south to north late Sunday night. IFR conditions are likely
Monday in low clouds, possibly improving to MVFR at times
Downeast. IFR conditions in rain and low clouds are likely
Monday night. Conditions Tuesday will range from MVFR to
occasionally VFR Downeast, to IFR to MVFR over the north. MVFR
conditions are likely Wednesday.
NEAR TERM: No hdlns attm. Wind gusts may get close to SCA 25 kt
thresholds tngt as llvl cold advcn spreads across the water from
the mainland, but unlike ovr the mainland, llvl lapse rates
will likely not be steep enough ovr the waters to allow for
stronger winds alf to transport toward the sfc. Any fog should
dissipate by late morn. Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3
wv guidance for fcst wv hts durg the near term.
SHORT TERM: Winds and Seas should be below SCA Sunday into
Sunday night. A SCA may be needed for southeast winds gusting up
to 25 kt over the offshore waters late Monday into Monday