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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201623
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NOON UPDATE: BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS MOST OF
THE RN EXITING THE FA...WE OPTD TO LOWER POPS SOONER TO ISOLD
CVRG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFT...WITH SCT SHWRS MENTIONED
ERLY FOR ERN ZONES ADJACENT TO NB TO ALLOW AN HR OR TWO FOR
MORE GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS TO EXIT E. OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED
FCST HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS
ACROSS THE FA. SAYING THIS...WE HAVE NOTED THAT HRLY TEMP RISES
HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PRIOR UPDATES. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF RN/SHWR CVRG OVR THE FA...THERE MAY
BE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CATCH UP TO LATE FCST HIGHS.

9 AM UPDATE: STEADY RN SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY MIDDAY OR SO...
LEAVING SCT SHWRS AT MOST FOR THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...WE BACKED OFF ON SHWR CVRG A LITTLE OVR THE
SW PTN OF THE FA FOR TUE. LASTLY...WE RE-TRENDED FCST HRLY TEMPS
TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM OBSVD 8 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA.

6 AM UPDATE: DOWNSLOPING HAS KEEP RAIN VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO DOWNGRADED RAIN TO JUST LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH WHERE WHERE ONE TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. CLOSER
TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST
WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST WHERE A SMALL SURFACE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS AND MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED. THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING MODERATELY COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH FROM WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG THIS FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN MAINE GETS A SHORT RESPITE FROM A DAMP PATTERN ON TUESDAY IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  EXPECT
ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE /SIGNIFICANT QPF OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/.  A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.  THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MVFR OVER THE
NORTH TO IFR DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY...XCPT BRIEFLY MVFR AT TMS AT KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS NORTHERN SITES ON WEDNESDAY IN
RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY BE OVER THE WATERS
EARLY TODAY.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS ACROSS COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI