Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221407 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1007 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region today. A warm front then lifts across the region Friday, with a cold front Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1005 AM update...No significant changes needed with this update. High clouds are streaming across the state, so have gone with mostly sunny rather than sunny for the remainder of this morning. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion... Transient high pressure at the surface and aloft crosses the area today into tonight. The air mass is very dry with dew points dropping into the lower 40s in northern zones today. Did adjust model guidance downward as drier air will be mixed to the surface. The mixing layer will be quite deep today and generate some gusty west-northwest winds. Gusts will reach 20 to 25 mph at times. There will be some scattered to occasionally broken cumulus fields at the top of the mixed layer...mostly towards the Crown of Maine and near the coast. The coast will be the warmest area with the offshore flow. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s north to upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor and the Down East region. Winds will die down Thursday night, but increasing high clouds and warm advection will limit radiational cooling. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will lift across the region Friday with overrunning rains developing. Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible. The steadiest rains will occur across northern areas, where the rain could be heavy at times during the afternoon. Lesser rain totals will occur southward across the remainder of the forecast area. A cold front will then begin to cross the region later Friday night. Rain, with a chance of thunderstorms, will occur across the region early Friday night with rain chances then decreasing overnight. The steadiest rains early Friday night will remain across northern areas, where the rain could be heavy at times during the evening. The cold front crosses the region Saturday with mostly/partly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers. Showers could linger Saturday evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected Saturday night. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Friday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected across the region Sunday through Wednesday. A series of cold fronts/trofs and upper level disturbances will cross the region in advance of an approaching upper level trof which should reach the region Wednesday. The exact timing of these fronts/trofs and disturbances is still uncertain. However, expect the chance of occasional showers will persist across the forecast area Sunday through Wednesday along with partly/mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with excellent visibility through tonight. Temporary broken cigs near 6K feet are possible by later this morning into the afternoon. Gusty WNW winds are forecast. Gusts may reach 20 to 25 mph today. SHORT TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions early Friday will lower to IFR/LIFR levels Friday afternoon. Similar conditions will persist early Friday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions later Friday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Saturday into early Saturday night. Generally expect VFR conditions later Saturday night into early Sunday, with occasional MVFR conditions again possible later Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is forecast. Adjusted wind and wave guidance downward in line with buoy obs. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Friday. Small craft advisory conditions are then possible Friday night into Saturday. Conditions should fall back below small craft advisory levels Saturday night. Visibilities will be reduced in fog along with a chance of rain and showers Friday into Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Hastings/MCW/Norcross Marine...Hastings/MCW/Norcross

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