Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251726 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 126 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure will build across the region Saturday then move to the east Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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125 pm update... Quick update to hrly temps and dwpts this aftn. Isold showers are mvg in fm Canada and hv dropped thunder to just isold for this aftn acrs nrn zones. SPC mesoanalysis indicating 500+ J acrs nrn zones this aftn so will not rmv completely. Previous Discussion... Low pressure tracking northwest of Maine will draw a cold front across Quebec province today through tonight. An upper level disturbance will cross the region today in advance of the front. Expect increasing clouds across northern areas today along with a chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. After a mostly sunny morning, expect partly sunny skies along with the slight chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm this afternoon across central/Downeast areas. The cold front will begin to approach the region later tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area tonight. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s across the forecast area, with slightly cooler temperatures near the coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s across the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure is expected to pass to the north of the area Friday with a cold front passing through the state behind the low. This may produce some showers across the north but the south is expected to remain dry. Strong high pressure is then expected to build in from the west Saturday and crest over the region late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will move to the east of the region Sunday. Another cold front is expected to move across New England Monday. This will result in showers across the region. High pressure will then move in from the west Tuesday. Another weak cold front is expected to cross the area early Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals through 06z before MVFR and eventually IFR restrictions work in as southerly flow draws low level moisture northward. Expect improvement to VFR after 15z Fri. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Friday through Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Sunday Night and Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels today through early tonight. Seas could then reach marginal small craft advisory levels later tonight for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, starting late tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy fog today through tonight. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are also expected tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to populate the grids Thursday Night into Saturday then will transition to the Super Blend winds. Will lower NAM12 winds by 10 percent to better fit boundary conditions. For Waves: Primary wave systems Friday through Sunday expected to be from local wind wave with secondary long period swell group. Long period swell (3-4 feet/13-15 seconds) may build on Monday depending on the development and track of tropical systems in the Atlantic. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to populate the wave grids. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Mignone Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/Mignone Marine...Farrar/Mignone

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