Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 090737 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 337 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AND EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE IN THE EVENING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP DOWN EAST AHEAD OF THE FOG AGAIN...BUT DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SFC...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE LABRADOR COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER...A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU THAT POPS UP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOO ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THU NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME SPOTS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE BROAD VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS THU NIGHT AS THE GROUND STILL REMAINS MOIST IN MANY AREAS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID. SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY MAKING FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE A MOIST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY TOUGH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. LONGER RANGE HEMISPHERIC MODELS AND CFSV2 HAVE A SLOW MOVING TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO EASTERN CANADA INTO WEEK 2. THIS WOULD PREVENT THERE FROM BEING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY ALSO TEND TO KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING WITH LIFR AT BHB. EXPECT TS VCNTY EARLY THIS AM FROM PQI NORTHWARD. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS RETURN AT BHB THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH SAT. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THU NIGHT...MAINLY AT KPQI AND KHUL THAT COULD BRIEFLY DROP THE VSBY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUN IN SCT -SHRA/-TSHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ANOTHER 6 HOURS. FOG WILL BE A FACTOR ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR A SCA FOR SEAS BY LATE MONDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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A VERY WET START TO THE MONTH OF JULY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE TOP NEWS HEADLINES SECTION ON OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB CLIMATE...CB

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