Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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827 FXUS61 KCAR 170115 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region from the west today through Tuesday...the settle south of the region mid to late week. A upper level disturbance will bring some cloudiness to mostly northern Maine Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Update 9:15 PM: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Model guidance indicates that low SC cld cvr across Nrn ptns of the FA and hi cldnss across Cntrl and Downeast areas should gradually dissipate/ move E of the Rgn respectfully, as the ridge axis from Hi pres from the great lakes settles ovr the Rgn late tngt. In addition to clearing skies, winds will become light and variable later tonight spcly ovr broad vlys of Nrn ME allowing for a window of radiational cooling. With fcst late ngt 925mb temps in the minus single digits, it would not take much of a sfc bas invsn for temps to drop in the low to mid 20s ovr these Nrn vly areas with even a few upper teens possible ovr the coldest vly lctns such as Escourt Stn or Big Black River. Skies will begin sunny on Tue, then an upper lvl s/wv movg rapidly E from Cntrl Can will bring increasing cldnss to mainly Nrn ptns of the Rgn midday into aftn, with isold rn shwrs possible late in the aftn in the Saint John vly as temps rise rapidly abv fzg durg the morn into erly aftn hrs. Despite the increasing cld cvr, hi temps Tue should actually recover to be a few deg warmer than current aftn temps across the N, and similar to current aftn temps across Cntrl and Downeast areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fairly quiet weather is expected for the middle of the week. A weak warm front, quickly followed by an equally weak cold front, will cross the region Tuesday night, perhaps sparking a few showers across the Saint John Valley. Otherwise, expect dry weather through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s north and lower to mid 60s south. Another warm front will lift across the state Wednesday night, ushering in milder air for Thursday; highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Another cold front will approach from the west late in the day, but don`t expect any impacts from this boundary during the daylight hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The quiet pattern continues right into early next week as high pressure will remain the dominant weather maker. A few showers are possible Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the area, but other than that, don`t see any rain threat until Monday. While a very gradual warming trend is expected, overall temperatures aren`t expected to vary too much from day to day; highs in the north will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s while Downeast will see daytime temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. Overnights will start out cool, mainly in the mid 30s to around 40, but expect everyone will see slightly warmer overnight lows by next week. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with periods of MVFR sc cldnss into erly eve across Nrn most sites, spcly KFVE. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some local MVFR is possible 00z-09z Wed and Fri at the northern terminals as upper disturbances will bring the threat for showers. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: We were able to drop the SCA for inner bay/harbor MZ052 withe SCA contg til about 8 pm for outer MZs050-051 as seas cont to subside. Winds will cont from the NW tngt at 10 to 20 kt, backing to the SW by Tue aftn as wind speeds drop to about 10 kt. Fcst wv hts thru Tue are close to blended WW3/NWPS guidance with primary wv pds in the 7 to 10 sec range. SHORT TERM: Headlines may be needed Tuesday night and then again on Thursday and Thursday night as winds increase in response to a couple of frontal passages. Winds will gust to around 25 kt and seas will build to 4 to 7 feet.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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