Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250436 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1236 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO AROUND 10 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AND IT WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS TO OUR SOUTH SETTING UP A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AFTER A SUNNY START, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PROJECTED WARMUP STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE CAVEAT TO THIS WARMUP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG W/THE 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW BUT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL HANG ON TO THE COLDER AIR A WHILE LONGER W/SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE WARM FRONT IS LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY W/THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS 50 ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS W/AREAS OF FOG AND MELTING TO TAKE PLACE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON W/A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/NAM AND GFS ALL SHOW LOW PRES NOW MOVING NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD MEAN WARMER AIR HOLDING IN LONGER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG W/A DECENT SWATH OF QPF IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LLVL JET FROM THE SW OF AROUND 50 KTS ABOVE 3K FT W/A DECENT SSE INFLOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS. TOTAL QPF THROUGH FRIDAY IS FORECAST ATTM TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.50-0.75" ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS W/1.00-1.25 INCHES DOWNEAST TO THE COAST. THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAINFALL AND THEN RUNOFF CAN OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS. THE CAVEAT NOW IS THAT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND RIDES NE, COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW. THE 12Z ECWMF IS THE MOST POTENT W/ITS QPF AND STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW. THE NAM AND GFS DO SHOW THE SUPPORT FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY THE EVENT PUSHES THROUGH QUICKLY AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS OPEN. ATTM, DECIDED ON A CONSENSUS AND KEPT SNOWFALL TO 2-4 INCHES W/THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES W/ THE FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. IN ITS WAKE, THE UPPER TROF IS SHOWN BY THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION W/TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE REGION W/ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY MONDAY. THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS THE ECMWF AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A LOW THROUGH QUEBEC W/SNOW AND RAIN WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SECOND LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. CONFIDENCE W/THE SYSTEM IS LOW AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR IN THE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY W/SNOW GOING TO FREEZING PRECIP AND THEN ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY. IFR ON THURSDAY TO POSSIBLE LIFR W/AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KBGR AND KBHB THURSDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY W/RAIN GOING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LLVL JET MOVING OVER THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL BE FOR THE OUTER ZONES. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW 25 KTS LATER THURSDAY BUT THE SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN AS A SWELL GENERATION TAKES PLACE AS LOW PRES RIDES UP FROM THE SW. DECIDED TO BRING SEAS UP TO A RANGE OF 8-11 FT TO COVER FOR THIS SETUP. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL/QPF OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/UP TO 1.25 INCHES FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE EVENT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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