Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230214 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1014 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track to our north overnight into Wednesday as it brings a cold front across the area. An upper trough will remain over the region Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1010 PM Update... Pops needed some adjustment to back things up this evening per the latest analysis and radar. Line of showers and embedded convection moving e and will arrive into northern and central areas w/in the next hour or so. Lightning detection not overly impressive as activity appears to be weakening as it runs into the established marine layer in place. Heavy rainfall looking like the highest threat attm. This is not saying that some embedded tstms could produce some strong winds gusts, but the threat overall appears to be diminishing w/this first batch. Regional radar showed a line of heavy showers storms apchg the western Maine border. This line could bring some gusty winds overnight as it moves through the region in association w/the cold front. For now, decided to keep the enhanced wording in the forecast through the overnight but pulled it out of the interior downeast region given the stratus and stable airmass. Kept the fog in there overnight especially for the Downeast region including the Bangor area. Previous Discussion... Instability wl be waning with frcg being less than optimal with cdfnt rmng well back to the west and marginal lapse rates. 50kts H7 mb speed max wl mv in tonight and expect that any storm wl hv the potential to produce gusty winds, thus hv retained gusty wind mention in the grids. With PW values 2+ inches and dwpts up into the m/u 60s tonight, along with significant warm cld depths, hv contd mention of locally hvy rainfall out of any storms. Expect patchy fog to dvlp ovr CWA late tonight ahd of cdfnt. Fropa occurs in the morning with dry air following in its wake. Max temps Wed wl lkly range 3-5 degrees colder than Tue with gusty west winds expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cooler air behind the front arrives very gradually Wednesday and it will be cooler and less humid Wednesday night with lows mostly in the lower 50s. The cool Canadian air mass will be in place for Thursday with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to upper 70s for Bangor. The coast will also be in the mid to upper 70s with the offshore flow. Dew points will be much more comfortable with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some cu fields will be possible north of Houlton with the NW flow. On Thursday night, the quiet and cool pattern continues with persistent upper level troughing and surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. The trend towards lower temperatures and dew points will continue with Thursday night lows in the 40s to near 50F. Dew points will also drop into the 40s for the entire area by Friday. Friday`s highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect greater cumulus and stratocu coverage for Friday afternoon...especially in northern zones. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... For the period Friday night through Tuesday night, a large dome of high pressure will slowly slide from the Great Lakes region towards Maine. Until the ridge crests over the area later Sunday, cumulus and stratocu fields in the a north to northwest flow will be a factor during the day...mostly in northern zones. With an upper trough over the area, there is some concern about a few light showers Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The best chance for any showers currently appears to be later Friday night into Saturday afternoon. These showers will likely top out at H700, produce little precipitation and be mostly in northern zones. The entire period will be cool with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. The coolest day will be Saturday with a slow warming trend into Tuesday. Low dew points in the 40s and lower 50s will continue during the period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals initially will give way to MVFR after 02z tonight across the north in showers and possibly -tsra. Expect improvement to MVFR after 15z Wed. HUL may experience IFR between 09z and 14z in low-level moisture bhnd departing cdfnt. At BGR expect MVFR after 03z and IFR between 07z and 13z. BHB will likely see low MVFR deck move in by 19Z as stratus moves in from the ocean. LIFR expected later tonight and rmn thru 03z. LLWS expected at BHB between 02z and 09z tonight. West winds tomorrow afternoon may gust to 20kts at times. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the period...with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs north of HUL later Friday night into Saturday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas expected to come up this evening in srly swell. Wind gusts will be marginal as stable layer remains over the waters but gusts will approach 25 kts tonight and Wed morning. SCA conditions may linger past 15z Wed but uncertainty precludes an extension of the headlines. SHORT TERM: South swell near 5 feet will be present Wednesday night, but steadily decrease later in the night into Thursday. Other than that, no significant wind, seas or fog seems likely during the forecast period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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