Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 031011 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 611 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS AND THUS THE SEAS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.