Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261119 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 619 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...DROPPED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY ON THE WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE TOWARD MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT 12Z TUE GETS CAPTURED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES WITH ITS 00Z RUN TO SHOW CYCLONIC LOOPING OF THE LOW OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ITS MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE TUE AND SPREAD TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS SOME AS IT LIFTS NORTH. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AND SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE...AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE THIS AREA TO AN ADVISORY. STRONG WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN STRONGER WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE DEFORMATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUE NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW PERSISTING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SECOND DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE EXPECTED AMOUNTS TO 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES DOWN EAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 FEET IN SPOTS THAT ARE AFFECTED MY LOCALLY INTENSE MESO SCALE BANDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES MADE TO THE STORM TOTALS. DID EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WED MORNING IN COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRES PULLS WAY FROM THE REGION WED NIGHT AND HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THU WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE ECMWF REALLY DEEPENS THE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI NIGHT AND WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRI PM THROUGH SAT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND WOULD BRING ONLY A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. GIVEN THAT THE ATTENTION IS NOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW. SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON POSSIBLE BY EARLY FEBRUARY. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: TODAY: VFR ALL TERMINALS. TONIGHT: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI...VFR. KHUL...VFR. SNOW WILL DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR. KBGR/KBHB...VFR EARLY. SNOW DEVELOPING 06Z-08Z WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR. R/WY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: VLIFR TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE AS A POWERFUL SNOW STORM AFFECTS THE TERMINALS TUE INTO WED ALONG WITH STRONG WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR WED NIGHT AND THU. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATER FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1 NM IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUE UNTIL 1 AM WED. WILL LIKELY NEED A RESIDUAL SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FEET IS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM EARLY TUE MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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