Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250121 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 921 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 922 PM...THE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE IS VERY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ANY ADD`L SNOWFALL WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE IN MOST AREAS AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW ENDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES MAINLY TO THE POPS/WX BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR RETURNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION THROUGH TONIGHT FROM KHUL NORTHWARD WITH POCKETS OF LOW MVFR. SNOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AND WILL END BY 04Z AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. MVFR WILL PREVAIL FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A NORTH WIND IS STILL GUSTING TO 25+ KT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF. THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS WIND SLOWLY DIMINISHES. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WAS A VERY WET SNOW (5:1 RATIOS) WITH WATER CONTENT OF 0.50-0.75". RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND WILL SEE SOME ADD`L RISES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASED FLOW ON THE ST CROIX RIVER DUE TO RELEASES FROM GRAND LAKE AND GRAND FALLS DAM. && .CLIMATE... THE SNOW CONTINUES TO ADD UP AT CARIBOU. 3.3" AS OF 8 PM EDT TODAY HAS PUSHED THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 150.7", WHICH MAKES THE WINTER OF 2013-2014 THE 6TH SNOWIEST ON RECORD. THE 3.3" OF SNOW THAT FELL TODAY ALSO RANKS AS THE 10TH GREATEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU SO LATE INTO THE SEASON. IT IS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVENT SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 3.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED ON APRIL 29, 2005. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS HYDROLOGY...CB CLIMATE...CB

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