Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190412 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1212 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure slowly exits across the Maritimes late tonight through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and southwestern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure develops near the coast of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night, that tracks into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday, followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1212 AM Update: Chgs this update msly included adding more trrn to winds for the remainder of the ngt, meaning lowering wind speeds in vlys and raising them ovr mtns. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the erly morn hrs from latest avbl sfc ob trends with no chgs to fcst erly morn low temps. Prev Disc: The region remains at the base of a closed low over the Maritimes through Tuesday morning. Another shortwave ahead of a negatively tilted trough pushes in Tuesday afternoon, with the risk of isolated to scattered snow (and possibly rain showers) mainly across northern portions of the County. Highs on Tuesday should be around 5 degrees above normal, from the lower 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pseudo clipper-type system will be approaching late Tuesday night but likely won`t see any precip from it until mid-morning with rain showers along the coast, rain and snow showers up through about Bangor and snow showers remainder of the area at onset. By 18z Wednesday warm advection will result in likely pops acrs the northwest and portions of the Central Highlands, closer to best forcing with sfc low. Temps will rise into the lwr 40s over Downeast and possibly sneak into the u30s along the NB border which may result in a rain snow mix during the afternoon hours. "Clipper low" will be captured by H5 wave Wednesday night. There are two different camps in regard to low pressure beyond Wednesday evening. 12z EC/CMC bottom it out below 990mb over Downeast while NAM/GFS keep it slightly weaker with more of an open wave at 500mb. As low pressure moves acrs the area overnight, exact track will determine ptypes overnight. Given it/s projected movement and timing Downeast should remain rain/snow mix most of the night before colder air gets draw in closer to daybreak to allow precip to switch over to snow, though this likely to be around the time the pcpn winds down. Northern areas should remain all snow. Storm total snowfall will range from about 1-3 inches over Downeast to between 3- 6 inches from the Central Highlands over to Danforth and points further north. Highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler than Wednesday with clouds and precip keeping temps down. Depending on how quickly low tracks into NB temps may reach their highs on Thursday morning before slowly falling all day. Westerly winds will begin to gust Thursday morning and continue into the evening hours with LLJ between 35- 45kts with higher terrain acrs the Central Highlands frequently gusting into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will head into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday evening with strong winds continuing across the area. HIgh pressure builds in rapidly on Friday afternoon and depending on how quickly it moves out will determine lows for Friday night. At this time it appears to be brief as next system rides up along the eastern seaboard. 00z GFS is much more bullish and stronger with system tracking acrs western part of the area, while EC brings a weak low acrs the waters as does CMC. Significant amount uncertainty with chc pops over the weekend at this point. Temps likely to drop below seasonal norms from Friday into early next week with large-scale trof impacting eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR/MVFR across northern areas overnight through Tuesday with isolated to scattered snow showers. VFR Downeast overnight through Tuesday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots overnight, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue Ngt...All terminals VFR with lgt winds. Wed-Wed night...VFR/MVFR early becoming IFR in the afternoon in snow north and rain south. S 5-10kts Wed, becoming ESE 5-10kts in the evening, then 5-10kts late Wed night. Thu...MVFR/IFR vsbys in snow north with rain/snow Downeast. W 10-20kts with gusts 30-35kts. Thu Ngt...MVFR across the north in light snow showers with VFR Downeast. W 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts. Fri...VFR. W 10-20kts and gusty. Fri Night-Sat...VFR early becoming MVFR/IFR Saturday morning. W 5-15kts, becoming S 5-15kts Saturday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: For now it appears all waters should be just below SCA conditions thru Tuesday as the gradient continues to weaken with the departing/weakening low in the Maritimes. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No headlines through Wednesday. Seas and winds slowly increase Wednesday evening with winds increasing toward gale force Thursday morning over the outer waters and over the intracoastals in the afternoon. Seas increase to 8 feet on Thursday afternoon with seas dropping below SCA Friday morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Buster Long Term...Buster Aviation...VJN/Buster Marine...VJN/Buster

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