Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 190412
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1212 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure slowly exits across the Maritimes late tonight
through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and
southwestern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure
develops near the coast of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night,
that tracks into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure builds
in Thursday night and Friday, followed by a storm system
approaching from the southwest Friday night and Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1212 AM Update: Chgs this update msly included adding more trrn
to winds for the remainder of the ngt, meaning lowering wind
speeds in vlys and raising them ovr mtns. Otherwise, fcst hrly
temps/dwpts were updated into the erly morn hrs from latest avbl
sfc ob trends with no chgs to fcst erly morn low temps.
Prev Disc: The region remains at the base of a closed low over
the Maritimes through Tuesday morning. Another shortwave ahead
of a negatively tilted trough pushes in Tuesday afternoon, with
the risk of isolated to scattered snow (and possibly rain
showers) mainly across northern portions of the County. Highs on
Tuesday should be around 5 degrees above normal, from the lower
30s to mid 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pseudo clipper-type system will be approaching late Tuesday
night but likely won`t see any precip from it until mid-morning
with rain showers along the coast, rain and snow showers up
through about Bangor and snow showers remainder of the area at
onset. By 18z Wednesday warm advection will result in likely
pops acrs the northwest and portions of the Central Highlands,
closer to best forcing with sfc low. Temps will rise into the
lwr 40s over Downeast and possibly sneak into the u30s along the
NB border which may result in a rain snow mix during the
afternoon hours.
"Clipper low" will be captured by H5 wave Wednesday night. There
are two different camps in regard to low pressure beyond
Wednesday evening. 12z EC/CMC bottom it out below 990mb over
Downeast while NAM/GFS keep it slightly weaker with more of an
open wave at 500mb. As low pressure moves acrs the area
overnight, exact track will determine ptypes overnight. Given
it/s projected movement and timing Downeast should remain
rain/snow mix most of the night before colder air gets draw in
closer to daybreak to allow precip to switch over to snow,
though this likely to be around the time the pcpn winds down.
Northern areas should remain all snow. Storm total snowfall will
range from about 1-3 inches over Downeast to between 3- 6
inches from the Central Highlands over to Danforth and points
further north.
Highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler than Wednesday with clouds
and precip keeping temps down. Depending on how quickly low tracks
into NB temps may reach their highs on Thursday morning before
slowly falling all day. Westerly winds will begin to gust Thursday
morning and continue into the evening hours with LLJ between 35-
45kts with higher terrain acrs the Central Highlands frequently
gusting into the upper 30s.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will head into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday
evening with strong winds continuing across the area. HIgh
pressure builds in rapidly on Friday afternoon and depending on
how quickly it moves out will determine lows for Friday night.
At this time it appears to be brief as next system rides up
along the eastern seaboard. 00z GFS is much more bullish and
stronger with system tracking acrs western part of the area,
while EC brings a weak low acrs the waters as does CMC.
Significant amount uncertainty with chc pops over the weekend at
this point. Temps likely to drop below seasonal norms from
Friday into early next week with large-scale trof impacting
eastern U.S.
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.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR/MVFR across northern areas overnight
through Tuesday with isolated to scattered snow showers.
VFR Downeast overnight through Tuesday. West/northwest winds
5 to 10 knots overnight, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots Tuesday.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
Tue Ngt...All terminals VFR with lgt winds.
Wed-Wed night...VFR/MVFR early becoming IFR in the afternoon in
snow north and rain south. S 5-10kts Wed, becoming ESE 5-10kts
in the evening, then 5-10kts late Wed night.
Thu...MVFR/IFR vsbys in snow north with rain/snow Downeast. W
10-20kts with gusts 30-35kts.
Thu Ngt...MVFR across the north in light snow showers with VFR
Downeast. W 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts.
Fri...VFR. W 10-20kts and gusty.
Fri Night-Sat...VFR early becoming MVFR/IFR Saturday morning. W
5-15kts, becoming S 5-15kts Saturday.
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.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: For now it appears all waters should be just below
SCA conditions thru Tuesday as the gradient continues to weaken
with the departing/weakening low in the Maritimes.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: No headlines through Wednesday. Seas and
winds slowly increase Wednesday evening with winds increasing
toward gale force Thursday morning over the outer waters and
over the intracoastals in the afternoon. Seas increase to 8 feet
on Thursday afternoon with seas dropping below SCA Friday
morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
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$$
Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...VJN/Buster
Marine...VJN/Buster