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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141643
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1215 PM UPDATE: A FEW LGT SHWRS HAVE BROKEN OUT OVR NE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY UNDER ACCAS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF SUPPORTING THE
SFC LOW MOVG EAST...SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...INDICATING SOME MID LVL
INSTABILITY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR SBCAPE FOR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM S/WV APCHG
FROM ERN QB...WE INCREASED POPS TO A MAX OF 40 PERCENT FROM THE
PREV 30 PERCENT. WE ALSO ADDED A LITTLE MORE QPF WITH A BASIN AVG
MAX NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH ALG A N...S AXIS XTNG FROM NEAR KFVE
TO MT KATAHDIN IN BAXTER STATE PK...WHERE WE BELIEVE ANY CNVCTN
THAT OCCURS LATE THIS AFTN WILL MAX OUT BEFORE HEADING ESE TOWARD
THE NB BORDER. OTHERWISE...LOADED NOON OBSVD TEMPS AND RE-TRENDED
HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS AT 4 PM.

10 AM UPDATE: WE MADE CHGS TO CLD CVR FCST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS XPCTD ACROSS THE W AND NE LATER
THIS AFTN AND EXITING THE FA THIS EVE. LASTLY FOR TDY...MINOR CHGS
WERE MADE TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN BASED ON LATEST OBSVD HRLY
TEMPS WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS RE-TRENDED TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM 10AM
TO 4PM. SOME PRELIM WORK FOR LOW/HI AND HRLY TEMPS FOR TNGT INTO
SAT AS WELL AS CLD CVR WAS COMPLETED.

5 AM UPDATE: FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO BEGIN DAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
OFFSHORE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN THE DAY
BEGINNING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY IN MOST
AREAS.

ORGNL DISC: THE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL BRING CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE DOWNEAST COAST.
OTHERWISE...RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNEAST LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION FIELD WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS LOW TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE ONLY AROUND 200 TO 300 J/KG SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS MAY ALLOW ANY THUNDERSHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROF WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. A STEADIER RAIN
IS THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL DRAW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. A STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS