Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190857 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS 50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE (2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2 FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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