Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 212150 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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530 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED HI TRRN...MSLY MAX TEMPS THRU THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CVR WERE MADE INTO THE OVRNGT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...NO CHGS NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM POP SHWR CVRG ATTM. ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY 100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR SEAS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/NORTON MARINE...VJN/NORTON

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