Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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771 FXUS61 KCAR 261000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 600 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over the region on Today. Low pressure will approach from the west tonight into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted wind and temperature. No other changes. Strong high pressure will crest over the region today then move to the east tonight. At the same time an area of low pressure will be moving northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will spread over-running precipitation into the area late tonight. Expect the precipitation to begin as snow in all areas then gradually change to mixed precipitation from south to north towards Monday Morning. For precipitation type will use the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam & GFS using 33 degrees for the frozen cut-off temperature. For snow amounts will use the snow ratio blender run on the GFS using the Cobb Method.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... System currently spinning in the Ms Rvr Vly tonight wl eject northeast twd the area this weekend. By 12z Mon, most of the area to the north and east of Bangor shud be all snow. Strong H8 winds mvg in fm srn New England wl quickly increase H8 temps aft this time with a mixed bag of pcpn acrs srn and wrn zones, most lkly in the form of snow and sleet. Expect this transition wl quickly spread to the north and east thru the day with with Downeast areas going quickly to rain by noon. Coastal low wl dvlp late in the aftn and enhance qpf acrs the coast. Temps aloft still look to be in question tho regarding ptype. GFS is colder than the NAM tho it appears to be related to juxtaposition of H8 jet. Latest NAM has 40-50kt jet acrs most of New England in the aftn while 00z GFS splits LLJ into two with a relative minimum acrs cntrl sxns of CWA. With event being three periods away, hv gone with a blend of NAM/GFS for ptype and can fine-tune as we get closer. Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof lurking nr the region. With temps well abv frzg on Tue expect that most locales wl hv gone to rain by aftn tho questions continue to cntr acrs the far north as the GFS rmns warmest with temps aloft while NAM, CMC and EC indicate a mix of snow/sleet thru the day. Guidance still rmns up in the air for Tue night tho NAM/GFS continue to be consistent with EC and CMC slowly coming more in line with soln. Hv gone with Superblend for Tue night, leaning twd lkly acrs far east zones and hichc elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Hipres wl be building in starting Thur and persist thru the end of the week. Models consistently showing next system wl mv in fm the west Sat mrng. Latest GFS is suppressed well to our south as it heads east off the Virgina Capes. EC brings robust sfc low off of the NY Bight with some lgt qpf spreading into CWA Sat/Sat night ahd of H5 trof. 00z CMC is most bullish with pcpn acrs entire FA Sat into Sat night. Hv allowed for chc pcpn ovr the weekend tho confidence is vry low with this system. Thru the end of the long term pd temps wl settle out arnd normal. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today then IFR conditions by late tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect to be IFR Mon morning at all sites in low clouds and mixed precipitation. Improvement for southern terminals possible on Tuesday though confidence is very low at this time as to whether another system will impact all sites thru Wed morning. MVFR restrictions may continue at northern sites through the end of the pd in low clouds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS for surface winds. For waves: A longer period wave system (2-3 feet/8 seconds) continues to move northward into the Gulf of Maine. This has been the primary wave system for the last 12 hours under light winds, however a secondary wind wave system has developed and could become the primary wave group this morning but is expected to subside later this morning and this afternoon as high pressure crests over the waters. Expect long period swell to continue to dominate this afternoon and tonight. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System as boundary conditions appear to verify well. SHORT TERM: SCA looks to be needed Monday/Mon night for gusty southeast winds ahead of sfc low crossing the Gulf along with serly swell. SCA for hazardous seas looks to be needed Tue night into Wed with small craft levels continuing into Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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