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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141459
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1059 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WEST TO EAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING IN OFF THE
OCEAN. FORECAST PACKAGE DID NOT HAVE THIS ACCURATELY COVERED SO AM
UPDATING ALL PRODUCTS FOR SKY CONDITION AND A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

---1300Z UPDATE---
MAJORITY OF FORECAST PACKAGE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.
WILL UPDATE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS.
WILL ALSO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS SEAS HAVE STARTED TO
SUBSIDE. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

600 AM UPDATE: WE DROPPED THE FROST ADV AS PLANNED BY 6 AM AND
DELETED ANY MENTION OF FROST IN THE FA IN THE 6-7 AM TM PD...
WHICH ALLOW FORMATTERS TO DROP ANY MENTION OF FROST OVR OUR FA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORN. OTHERWISE...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
THE MAIN CLD LN STRADDLING A KRKD TO KHUL LINE...WITH LITTLE NET
MOVEMENT OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. ALSO...A PATCH OF SC WAS
NOTED OVR NRN SOMERSET COUNTY SLOWLY MOVG ESE TOWARD MOOSEHEAD LK
OVR CNTRL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. LATEST THINKING IS THAT IN ADDITION
TO THE HI/MID CLD CVR OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA...SOME SC WILL FILL
IN OVR WRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATER THIS MORN WITH
INCREASING HTG. OTHERWISE...INCORPORATED 5 AM HRLY TEMPS FROM OBS
ACROSS THE REGION AND USED THEM AS UPDATED OVRNGT LOWS...SINCE
MOST LOCATIONS AT THAT TM WERE A COUPLE OF DEG COOLER THAN THE
PRIOR LOW FOR LAST NGT. THIS ALLOWED US TO RE-ADJUST THE FCST HRLY
TEMP TREND TO FCST MID/LATE AFT HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN YSTDY...SPCLY OVR THE NRN
HLF OF THE FA SHOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO RECOVER A FEW DEG F MORE
THIS AFTN THAN YSTDY AFTN. BY AFTN...THE WRN EDGE OF THE HI/MID
CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY STRADDLE THE ERN 3RD TO HLF OF THE FA FROM
NEAR KFVE TO KBHB A INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKS NNE FROM THE OPEN
ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE ERN CAN MARITIMES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE WRN EXTENT OF HI/MID CLDNSS OVR ERN ME JUST W OF
THE ME/NB BORDER INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE RETREATING E TOWARD
THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. FOR THIS REASON...ALONG WITH LGT NW WINDS
OVR THE ERN HLF OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER PRES GRAD OF
THIS LOW...WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR E
TOWARD THE NB BORDER THE FROST POTENTIAL AND HDLNS WILL BE NEEDED
OVR CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. FURTHER
W...PARTICULARLY THE WRN VLYS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLR AND WINDS
LGT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
IDEAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPS THERE XPCTD TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WDSPRD FROST ACROSS COLDEST
VLY AREAS. ALL FROST SHOULD RAPIDLY MELT/SUBLIMATE SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE WED UNDER THE STRONG MID MAY SUN.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS A FAST-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH. CONDITIONS WILL MOISTEN UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES NORTH OF HOULTON. UPGRADED
POPS TO LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS...OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK OR NORTH OF THE STATE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WITH MORE CONTINUOUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT. TOWARDS BANGOR...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH GREATER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS RATHER THAN SHOWERS BEING THE
BIGGEST IMPACT. GUSTS COULD REACH 35 T0 40 MPH. HIGHS NORTH WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT TOWARDS BANGOR MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. SUFFICIENT H850 MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BUT SHOULD BE FAR LESS THAN
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT COULD DIP
LOWER IF WINDS DECREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THICKENING CLOUDS WITH AN IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
COOLER MARITIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES RIDE OVER AN UPPER RIDGE
TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY...IFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR BGR AND BHB DURING
THURSDAY...BUT MVFR TEMPO IFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION NORTH OF HUL DURING THURSDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OVER 35 KTS AROUND BGR AND BHB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR WILL
BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION BY LATER THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GIVEN A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WHEN WV HTS WILL FALL BLO
5 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS THIS MORN...WE HAVE OPTD TO XTND THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS A COUPLE MORE HRS TIL 10 AM...BUT THE TREND SHOULD
CONT DOWNWARD...AND WE ENVISION NO HDLNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THRU TNGT. WE USED WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR THE NEAR
TERM...BEEFED UP A FOOT OR SO OVR OUTER MZS TO MATCH LATEST BUOY
OBS TIL MID MORN...THEN MERGED WITH UNMODIFIED GUIDANCE BY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A GENERAL SCA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FT ON THURSDAY MAY REQUIRE THE
SCA CONTINUE FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL