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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250245
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1045 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 2230L: SLOW MVG COLD FRONTAL BNDRY NOW RGT ON OUR FAR SERN
BORDER W/ MOST ALL OF THE CWA NOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...
SLUG OF RAIN MVG INTO AND OUT OF THE AREA ATTM AS WEAK SFC WAVE
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA W/ PRECIP EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN FROM S TO
N LATER TNGT/ERLY SUN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES LIFTS NNE FROM
NR CAPE COD.  PRECIP AMOUNTS OVR THE LAST 2 DAYS NOW GENERALLY BTWN 1 AND
2 INCHES W/ LOWEST AMOUNTS BTWN .5 AND 1.0 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FAR N. A FEW FASTER RESPONDING RVRS CONT TO SLOWLY RISE
BUT WELL BLO ACTION STAGES ATTM. VRY CHILLY AND WET PTRN CONTS
THRU THE WEEKEND W/ SIGNIFICANT WARMING DRYING UNLIKELY TIL EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW SOME DECREASE NXT FEW HRS
PER LATEST TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE POPS AGAIN LATE TNGT THRU
SAT. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TOO WARM.

UPDATE 1830L: SLOW MVG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU ALL BUT OUR FAR
SERN CORNER ATTM... WEAK SFC WAVES LIFTING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY
CONT TO PRODUCE WDSPRD LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST AREAS HAVE RCVD FROM ABOUT .75-1.5 INCHES LAST 2 DAYS
W/ PLENTY STILL TO COME. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THRU THE EVE HRS
AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO MV INTO SERN NB AND THEN BECOME NRLY
STATIONARY AS A STRONGER LOW LIFTS NEWRD UP THIS FRONT ON SAT. WET
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN W/ SOME DRYING PSBL BY LATER MON.
MONITORING AREA RIVERS FOR PROBLEMS BUT AS THEM PRECIP THUS FAR HAS
BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A PROLONGED PD...NO MAJOR CONCERNS ATTM.
FASTER RESPONDING SMALLER STREAMS/RIVERS ALL ON THE RISE ATTM BUT
ALL WELL BLO ACTION STAGE ATTM.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST NEEDED...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF  MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB