Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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124 FXUS61 KCAR 291947 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 347 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area this afternoon followed by high pressure on Sunday. Low pressure tracking to our west will lift a warm front across our region on Monday. An occluded front will push into the area Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The cold front will bring sharply cooler temperatures for tonight and Sunday. There could be a brief shower in northeast Aroostook this afternoon with the cold front, but otherwise, it should not generate any precipitation. It will produce a lot of post-frontal wind with a tight pressure gradient, steep lapse rates and strong winds at H925. With the cold air advection, winds are expected to continue strong much of the night and temperatures will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s north. Bangor and the Down East region will record overnight lows mostly in the upper 30s. Drier air will continue advecting into the region overnight into early Sunday. Dew points will be in the 20s after reaching the low 60s last Thursday. Winds will die off in the morning as high pressure builds over the area. Highs will only reach the low to mid 50s in this cooler air mass. While Sunday will start with sunshine, mid and high overrunning clouds will increase during the day in the southern half of the forecast area. Northern zones should maintain sunshine much of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As a low pressure system moves into the Midwest, a warm front will lift across the Mid-Atlantic and into New England. As it does so, precip is expected to spread in from the west, mainly impacting central and Downeast areas Sun night. There remains some discrepancy on the northward extent of precip Mon AM and early aftn, but the NAM stands alone in not having precip reaching the Saint John Valley by 18z Mon. Thus, definite POPs were extended north to the valley in the early afternoon hours. Some upper ridging may lead to some diminished or clearing precip later Mon aftn and early eve. Another round of increased POPs appears likely between 00z and 12z Tue as the warm front lifts across the CWA, while the cold front and upper low approach from the west. As the cold front pushes through during the day Tue, precip will diminish, but some isolated showers may linger to the end of the short term as the upper low remains upstream.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Some spotty rain may linger Tue night into Wed AM as the upper trough slides across the CWA. As the base of the trough moves off to the east, precip will clear up Wed PM into Thu. A new upper trough approaching from the west Thu night and Fri will push a low pressure system across the Mid-Atlantic and toward Cape Cod and Nova Scotia Fri into Fri night. Widespread precip across the CWA is possible with this system, but differences in timing and track between models limit POPs to likely at this point. Depending on temps and storm track, snow may be possible up north, but for now have it almost all rain.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR with excellent vis and any cigs generally above FL050. There will be strong gusty northwest winds behind a cold front crossing the area later this afternoon. Gusts may reach 35 mph. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR CIGs and eventually vsby Sun night into Mon AM as precip spreads across the area. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist Mon aftn and night as the precip persists, and fog may develop in moist S-SE`ly flow Mon night. Some improvement is likely Tue night into Wed, but some spotty MVFR to IFR conditions are still possible in any lingering rain showers.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Expect a few gusts to 25 kts and seas may reach up to 5 ft at times tonight for a brief time...especially after midnight into the pre-dawn hours. Since it`s so marginal and brief, will hold off on any issuance at this time. SHORT TERM: Offshore conditions will be good Sun night into Mon as seas remain low and gentle to moderate S`ly winds turn E`ly. Winds will shift back SE-S`ly and increase Mon night into Tue, with a few gusts possibly getting close to SCA levels during the day Tue. Persistent onshore flow will lead to seas exceeding SCA criteria during the day Tue.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...MCW/Kredensor Marine...MCW/Kredensor

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