Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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064 FXUS61 KCAR 010153 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 953 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS PTNS OF DOWNEAST ME FOR THE HRS IMMEDIATELY ARND DAYBREAK. THIS WAS DONE IN PART BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS PAST MORN IN THE BGR VCNTY WHEN PATCHY FOG BROKE OUT FOR ABOUT A 2HR PD BETWEEN 5-7AM. FCST LOWS FOR ERLY SUN MORN ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YSTDY... IN THE MID 30S AND WITH EVE DWPT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S THX TO THE SEA BREEZE...THE FEELING IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP MUCH BELOW THIS CROSS OVER POINT TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN LGT PATCHY FOG ATTM...BUT WORTH A MENTION GIVEN THAT IT OCCURRED ERLY THIS PRIOR MORN. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THIS OVRNGT WERE UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS BASED ON OBSVD TEMP TRENDS AT 8 AND 9PM. ORGNL DISC: ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... MSLY FOR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WHERE WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE ANOTHER (AND LAST) SPS ON CAUTION FOR BURNING. AFTWRDS... MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVE. && .CLIMATE... TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT CARIBOU. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON MARCH 1-20, 2010. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...VJN/CB MARINE...VJN/CB FIRE WEATHER...VJN CLIMATE...CB

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