Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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763 FXUS61 KCAR 140154 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 854 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE... THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WIND CHILL READINGS OF AROUND 20 BELOW TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE A NORLUN TROF HAS BEEN PRODUCING SNOW...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ZONE. THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW WIND CHILLS INTO SUN MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MID DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. MODEL TREND IS TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS WITH TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TAKING LONGER. WILL USE LATEST GFS FOR GRIDS WHICH IS COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF AND MORE EASTERLY TRACKING NAM. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF NAM AND GFS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE GENERATED RATIO GRIDS WITH OFFICE SNOW RATIO BLENDER USING THE COBB METHOD RUN ON THE GFS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH THE SOMEWHAT EASTWARD SHIFT IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THUS QUICKER RE-ENTRY OF COLD AIR INTO THE CWA, THE CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WAS SPED UP FOR MOST AREAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AM. SNOW FROM THE MAIN EVENT TAPERS OFF WED AM, BUT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW OR TROF MOVING THRU THE CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE BROAD UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHWRS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW THEN TAPERS THU AM AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE STATE THU NIGHT, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT DECOUPLING, RESULTING IN A RATHER FRIGID NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO IMPACT THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND, AND WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING, SATURDAY APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES: A SIGNIFICANT FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT FETCH TO BREAK UP WITH THE WIND SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED EXPECTED AROUND 30+ KNOTS TUESDAY WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF AROUND 15 FEET/10 SECONDS. DUE TO THE LENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS. DOMAIN BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR NWPS LOOK REASONABLE.
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&& .CLIMATE... THE LOW OF -14F AT CARIBOU EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005- 006-011-015>017-029>032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ029. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE CLIMATE...CB

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