Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030423 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL. LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO 18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN. QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH 40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE. LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES

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