Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151425 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 925 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build back in across the region through tonight. Low pressure will move in from the west Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update... Cold front crossing the forecast area this morning. With little in the way of moisture with the front expect mainly sunny skies today. Temperatures will remain fairly steady or even fall a few degrees this afternoon as 925 mb temperatures will be falling today. Made only minor adjustments to temps/dew points today. No other changes. previous discussion High pressure will build in from the west today and crest over the region tonight. The high will then move to the east. Expect mostly sunny conditions today but clouds are expected to increase tonight behind the departing high pressure system.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fast-mvg system wl traverse Quebec on Mon. As wk front appchs the state expect a few snow showers acrs the north drg the aftn but little to write home about. Swrly flow wl allow temps to warm to nr normal drg the day with highs in the l20s acrs the Crown and l30s for Downeast. Hipres wl be building into CWA Mon night with ridge axis bisecting area on Tue. Cannot rule out some patchy flurries in the higher terrain along the international brdr early Mon night in cyclonic flow but wl not include in grids attm. H5 s/wv ridge wl be appchgfm the west Tue aftn and wl lkly determine progress of next appchg system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high expected to be holding tight acrs ern Canada Wed mrng bfr vry slowly building into the Maritimes. Latest med range guidance suggests upr lvl ridge wl build acrs nrn New England and may eject low into the Atlantic to the south of our area. 00z GFS is much more amplified with upr-lvl feature than EC is with trof hanging on thru the end of the week. 00z Euro ejects it well south and east of the Gulf of Maine by 12z Thur with just a weak secondary trof mvg thru bfr upr ridging builds in thru the end of the week. Current guidance on upcoming system suggest rain/snow mix along the coast Wed morning, mvg north into the afternoon with snow mainly to the north of Bangor. Hwvr, hipres and drier air may prevent much in the way of pcpn acrs the north on Wed thus hv gone with just chc pops with lkly acrs the south. May see isold snow showers Thur into Fri with wk upr trof crossing the area tho GFS suggests a low in the Gulf of Maine 12z Thur while EC is approx 400 miles to the southeast with sfc low. Still many details to work out in regard to how much of an impact the next system wl hv on CWA by mid-week. One thing looks to be a little more clear-cut. Temps wl lkly be abv normal into the next weekend with deep trof acrs the west and building heights in the east. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR Conditions are expected through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR through Tue though CAR/FVE may see MVFR or IFR in isold -shsn on Monday. Low MVFR/IFR possible late Tue night into Wed with -SNRA BHB and BGR and -SN to the north. Improvement to MVFR on Thur, and possibly VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained wind speed today and tonight. For Waves: Off-shore wind wave is expected to be the primary wave system today into tonight with wave heights a function of fetch distance from the coast. Incoming long period swell is expected to remain below 1 foot through tonight. Have used the Near Shore Wave Model for wave heights. SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to SCA levels on Monday before diminishing late Tue night. Expect SCA conditions again on Wed, however levels will be dependent on track of low and how close it approaches the Gulf of Maine which is still very uncertain at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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