Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160649 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 249 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL WEDNESDAY/... 247 AM UPDATE: DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CONCERNS ATTM ARE FLOODING AND ICE JAMS. LATEST RADAR HAD A SLUG OF RAIN STREAMING NORTHWARD RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN TO BE CHANGING TO SNOW. ATTM, STAYED W/1-3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AND LESS THAN AN INCH FURTHER EAST. ON THE FLOODING ISSUES, ICE IS MOVING AND JAMMING NOW AT THE WASHBURN GAGE(WSHM1) ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER W/THE RIVER SPIKING TO 15.5 FT AND FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. ICE JAM REMAIN ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT FORT FAIRFIELD W/REPORTS THAT THIS JAM IS HUNG UP RIGHT NEAR THE BRIDGE. ROADS AROUND AROOSTOOK COUNTY HAVE BEEN THE MOST IMPACTED W/SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED. SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT... SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... UPDATE: ICE IS MOVING ON THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE AROOSTOOK, ST. JOHN AND PISCATAQUIS. ICE JAMMING AT THE WASHBURN GAGE(WSHM1) W/ANOTHER JAM AT THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE ON ROUTE 1A. TALKED W/THE EMA AND THEY ARE MONITORING THINGS ATTM. FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO CONT INTO WED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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