Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130124 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 924 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY AND EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 925 PM UPDATE...TEMPS DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH MOST AREAS NORTH OF MILLINOCKET IN THE 40S. ESTCOURT STATION IS THE COLD SPOT AT 35F AS OF 9 PM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SW QUEBEC ATTM WILL CREST OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 12Z SAT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON LOWS. DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY IN THE M/U 30S AND WILL NEED TO FALL SOME MORE FOR TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. STILL EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH MANY AREAS TO HAVE FROST. POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS IN THE WESTERN ST JOHN VALLEY TO THE WEST OF FORT KENT WILL DROP INTO THE M/U 20S. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST MAINLY TO THE HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE THIS EVENING...THE AURORA BOREALIS HAS BEEN VISIBLE AT TIMES FROM THE WFO. 619 PM UPDATE...THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND LATER TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. FROST IS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FROST FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. EXPECTED LOWS FALL INTO THE FROST CATEGORY RATHER THAN PROMPTING A FREEZE WARNING. DEW POINTS ARE TRENDING A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND THE ALLAGASH. EXPECT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE ALLAGASH BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. PATCHY FROST MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BANGOR AREA. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. SUNSHINE IS MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WET WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN LINE W/AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN RAPID CLEARING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE RAINFALL W/THE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE AREA(>0.25 INCHES) ACROSS THE NWRN AREAS AND ANOTHER BULLSEYE(>0.25 INCHES) OFF THE MAINE COAST W/THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL COME BEFORE 5 AM SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION W/THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING. A CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY W/PARTIAL CLEARING AND BREEZY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE W SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE CONCERN IS WILL THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN TIME FOR FROST FORMATION. ATTM, DECIDED TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH ON THE WINDS W/THE NAM12 AND GFS USED SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH AFTER 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND FORECAST WINDS, LEANED W/OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST AND BIT WARMER ON THE COAST(40-45F). FROST IS POSSIBLE, BUT SINCE THIS IS 5TH PERIOD, DECISION WAS TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES E AND THE REGION GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AM. THIS SHOULD MODERATE AM TEMPS. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LACKING IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...STILL EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS... A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN REGIONS...BUT AS UPPER TROF PULLS NORTHEAST EXPECT AM TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. AM TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM AT OR AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60...PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH TO NORTH. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON SAT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD EVENING AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE VFR FROM THAT POINT RIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH JUST OVER 3 FT. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT W/THE FRONT BUT WELL BELOW THE 25 KT THRESHOLD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT BUT THEN DROP BACK BELOW 3 FT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN

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