Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190659 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 259 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain late this afternoon and this evening but is expected to mix with and change to snow across the north late tonight. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. Have based the precipitation type on surface temperature. Have created snow ratio using the the snow ratio blender run on the NAM and using the Cobb Tool. Snow amounts based on snow ratio. Have used consensus raw for temperature.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Frontal occlusion wl be crossing the area at the start of the short term on Thur mrng. Most of the steady pcpn wl hv pushed off to the east by 12z with just sctd showers expected ahd of bndry. Expect rain showers for Downeast and a rain/snow mix north of Houlton with all snow showers up in the St. John Vly for a few hrs in the mrng. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed. Next system wl begin impacting CWA late Thur night with H5 low diving into the Great Lakes by 12z Fri. Overrunning pcpn wl dvlp Fri mrng and continue thru the day. May see snow at onset acrs nrn zones Fri mrng but as bndry lyr quickly warms expect that rain wl be pre-dominant ovr most of the area by mid- mrng. Sfc low then fcst to re-develop nr the Cape Cod vicinity late Fri night. Model differences continue to abound on exactly where this coastal low wl dvlp, with majority of med range guidance indicating south of the Gulf of Maine sometime late Fri night yet latest GFS continues to indicate along the Downeast coast by 06z Sat. This closer soln gives much heavier qpf than rmndr of guidance with GFS some 2-3 times higher.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Sfc ridge axis builds in bhnd departing system drg the latter half of the weekend. Expect a dry and warm day on Sunday with temps near normal and light winds. Another chc for pcpn wl mv in Sun night as cdfnt drops south out of Canada Sun night and sfc low heads up the ern Seaboard at the same time. It appears that the front wl bring the best chc for any pcpn as sfc low shoots out to sea tho cannot rule out an isold shower acrs coastal zones. Overall a lochc for pcpn anywhere acrs the CWA Sun night thru Mon.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR today and IFR tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR expected Thur morning with restrictions improving to VFR in the afternoon. VFR Thur night all terminals before lowering to MVFR Fri morning with ocnl IFR through the day in lower cigs. IFR Fri night acrs northern terminals in -sn. Conditions will improve Sat aftn with VFR expected Sat night into Sun all terminals.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained surface winds. For Waves: The Nearshore Wave Prediction System was used for wave grids. Current spectral observations from 44027 indicate that easterly wind wave continues to be the primary waves system. Longer period swell from the southerly fetch over the last few days continues to persist as a secondary wave group. The easterly wave group will subside later today as winds veer into the southeast and develop a new wave system later today into tonight. This new wave system will build to around 4 feet/5-6 seconds by later tonight and become the primary wave group. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain blo SCA levels through Fri morning before increasing ahead of next system. Serly swell will result in waves between 5-9 feet thru Sat morning as coastal low tracks in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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