Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260746 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 346 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TODAY. DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN ANY ISOLATED TSTMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES DOWN EAST. AS THE AIR MASS COOLS ALOFT THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THE SKY WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NW VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY DOWN EAST WITH SUNSHINE TO MIX WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE. THE GFS PULLS MORE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH WITH A SFC WAVE IN THE MIDWEST, AND HAS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS BECOME DOMINATE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND START SEPTEMBER. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR WEEK TWO FROM THE CPC...CFSV2...AND HEMISPHERIC MODELS WOULD POINT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS IN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY EVENING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM: VFR THU AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT -SHRA. VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUN IF SHOWERS END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING IN AREAS OF FOG. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE AIR MASS TURNS MORE HUMID AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. && .CLIMATE...TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AUGUST ARE RUNNING 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 2.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT BANGOR. THIS WILL BE ONLY THE 2ND MONTH THIS YEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB CLIMATE...CB

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