Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 242130 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 530 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 520 PM UPDATE: MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVER 1" OF RAINFALL IN < 1 HR. NO FLOODING REPORTED BUT THERE HAS BEEN PONDING OF WATER WHICH HAS SLOWED UP TRAFFIC IN SOME AREAS. THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WAS MOVING ACROSS AN AREA OF HIGH THETA E AIR PER THE LAST MESO ANALYSIS ALL. THIS HAS ALLOWED TO ENHANCEMENT IN THE CELLS AND RAINFALL. THE DAYCREW HAS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST WHICH WAS WELL HANDLED. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, SHOWERS W/PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AS LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED NNE FLOW THROUGH 850MBS. SOME MU CAPE OF AROUND 400 JOULES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ISOLD TSTMS. ACTION HAS BEEN WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HRS AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD...WITH TWO MORE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE SECOND AND AFFECT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING AVAILABLE...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS. THE SECOND WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL TAP SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF MAINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. HOWEVER A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. GFS CERTAINLY HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT THAN THE ECMWF, AND CLEARS PRECIP FROM NRN CWA BEFORE 00Z WED. HOWEVER, SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER, CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS WERE MAINTAINED THRU 00Z WED. WITH UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN WED INTO THU AM, PRECIP CHANCES ARE KEPT BELOW SLIGHT CHC LEVELS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THU PM INTO FRI AM. FOR FRONT TIMING, GFS IS STILL A BIT AHEAD OF THE ECWMF, BUT THE GAP IS NARROWED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUNDER WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE CWA FOR THE FIRST 24HRS OR SO OF THE LONG TERM, AND TSTMS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY IN ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT, WITH GENERAL SHWRS LINGERING BEHIND. TEMPS STILL APPEAR POISED TO INCREASE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, THOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BEHIND THE LATE-WEEK FRONT. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: THERE COULD BE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/BERDES MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/BERDES

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