Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 071450 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1050 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THEREFORE, EXPECT TODAY`S SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE LINGERING INSTABILITY, SO THERE COULD STILL BE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS MOST SPOTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFT A FAIR...WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID DAY TUE...MODELS BRING THE SECOND S/WV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LKS INTO OUR FA MSLY OVRNGT TUE NGT INTO THE ERLY MORN HRS WED. MODEL CONSENSUS 6 HRLY QPF TUE NGT JUSTIFIES CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE N WHERE A QUARTER TO LOCALLY A HALF INCH OF RNFL WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS AND QPF SWRD TOWARD THE COAST. AFT A BREAK IN RNFL MID MORN INTO MIDDAY WED...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROF ACCOMPANIED BY MLCAPES OF 400-800J/KG WED AFTN...BUT WITH LOW DEEP LAYER RH ABV THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FT AGL...ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT...SO WE KEEP FCST QPF LOW THRU WED. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT...HI TEMPS WED WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEG F COOLER THAN TUE. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVRNGT WED NGT...LEAVING MCLR TO PTCLDY SKIES IN THERE WAKE AND A LITTLE COOLER OVRNGT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BRING A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT THRU THE FA DURING THE DAY THU. WITH ONLY LMTD LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE ANY SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL BE SCT IN CVR AT BEST. HI TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEG COOLER THEN THE PREV DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLR OVRNGT THU NGT...WITH A NW BREEZE AHEAD OF MDTLY STRONG SFC HI PRES MOVG E FROM THE GREAT LKS. ONE LAST S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN COULD BRING PTLY CLDY SKIES AND ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHWRS TO NRN PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...WITH ANY SHWRS DISSIPATING AFT SUNSET BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV TROF AXIS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS THU NGT...HI TEMPS FRI LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE SFC HIS CRESTING JUST S OF THE FA FRI NGT INTO SAT...HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD RECOVER TO A FEW DEG WARMER THAN FRI AFT A FAIRLY COOL NGT FRI NGT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLDNSS SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS SCT SHWRS REACHING FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT AS A LEAD S/WV APCHS FROM THE GREAT LKS. A BETTER CHC OF MSLY LATE AFTN AND OVRNGT SHWRS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR SUN AS A FOLLOW-UP S/WV APCHS FROM THE GREAT LKS BRINGS MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF LOWER CLG/VSBYS POSSIBLE MSLY IN THE AFTN/EVE MON-WED IN HEAVIER SHWRS AND ISOLD- SCT TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS THEN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZ SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR OUTER MZS050-051 UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUE NGT...ANOTHER PD OF SCA HAZ SEA CONDITIONS OVR THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NGT...WITH WVS THEN SUBSIDING BLO 5 FT OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS LATE WED NGT THRU THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. ONLY WENT WITH 75 TO 80 PERCENT OF THE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR OUR WATERS GIVEN THE GFS HIGH WIND BIAS INPUT INTO THE WW3 WV MODEL.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN

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