Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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998 FXUS61 KCAR 241510 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1110 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will remain to our north today. The low will weaken and move east Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:10 AM Update...A small shortwave crossing the area enhanced snow showers activity a bit across northern and central areas. This shortwave will move through to the east early this afternoon. Some spotty light showers and flurries may continue over northern and central areas. Raised temps a bit Downeast where sunshine has warmed the air a bit. Previous discussion...Low pressure will continue to spin over Quebec today and tonight, keeping cold, breezy, and showery conditions across our region. Northern areas will see isolated to scattered rain showers redevelop today, possibly mixing with snow at times. Sky cover will be thickest in the north as well, with sunshine increasing as one heads south toward the coast. Highs will range from around 40 in northern Aroostook County to the mid and upper 40s Downeast, though gusty winds will make it feel colder. Showers should increase in areal coverage across the northern half of our forecast area overnight as a weak cold front sinks south out of Canada. Locations along and north of a Danforth to Greenville line will have the best chances of seeing precipitation, and with temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 30s, expect at least a rain/snow mix to occur across much of that region. Any snow accumulation will be an inch or less; outside of the higher elevations of the North Woods, don`t expect much more than a dusting to fall overnight. A shower or two will be possible across far Downeast toward the coast, but dry weather will prevail for most. Lows in these locations will be in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An E-W upper trof alg with a sfc low departing ewrd from Labrador into the Open N Atlc will still keep cldnss alg with sct rn/sn shwrs for Tue into Wed spcly across the N hlf of the region, with sn shwrs msly in th ovrngt and morn hrs with little or no accumulation. Aftwrds, sfc hi pres from Cntrl Can will only bring slow clrg to the region Wed ngt, spcly slow for Nrn and Ern ptns of the FA. For this reason, ovrngt lows will not be as cold as they could for spcly the ern hlf of the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thu should be sunnier, with somewhat milder hi temps in the aftn. Then low pres from the midwest will bring increasing cldnss to the region Thu eve and lgt precip by late Thu ngt. Sfc and llvl 925-850mb temps look to be cold enough to support lgt sn or a mix of lgt sn and rn across the N late Thu ngt into early Fri morn. Most models then bring milder air both alf and at the sfc for a transition to all rn by late Fri morn before more mdt precip rates arrive. However, the latest model trend with the 00z run shows sfc low pres re-developing alg he Downeast Maine coast by later Fri as the upper trof sharpens an closes off ovr the Gulf of ME. This could result in more resistance of llvl cold air to hold ovr Nrn ME on Fri, possibly delaying a chgovr to all rn. Considering prior model runs were not as bullish with the upper lvl low and associated dynamics, we will wait for additional model runs before considering more in the way snfl, spcly considering any event will have to fight llvl blyr warming from the Atlc. Fcst total QPF from this event will range from a quarter to hlf inch across the N third of the region to a half to 0.75 inches across the Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the region by late Fri ngt with max PoPs Fri in the high likely range. Aftwrds, models in the longer range disagree in the longer range with a weaker follow-up low pres system from the midwest with the 00z opnl GFS tracking it alg the Downeast coast Sat ngt and bringing lgt msly rn to the region and the ECMWF tracking it further S and missing the region with any sig precip. For now, we just mention chc shwr PoPs for the region Sat into Sat eve given the model uncertainty. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR will prevail at all terminals through 00z Tuesday. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible in the north, mainly at FVE, and these may bring visibility and ceilings down to MVFR at times. MVFR will become more likely at the northern terminals overnight as snow showers will become more numerous with the passage of a weak cold front; occasional IFR will be possible. BGR and BHB will remain VFR through 06z Tuesday, then ceilings will lower to around 2500 ft. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs and attms vsbys with sct rn/sn shwrs Tue and Wed for Nrn TAF sites, otherwise, low VFR clgs for Downeast sites. Clgs gradually lifting to VFR for Nrn TAF sites Wed ngt, then all TAF sites unlmtd VFR Thu and Thu eve. Clgs then gradually lower late Thu ngt to MVFR and then to IFR on Fri with rn, which may begin as a mix of rn/sn for Nrn TAF sites. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 605 AM update...As was anticipated, winds have dropped through the morning hours. Gusts over the inner waters are now at or below 20 kt, while the outer waters are at or below 30 kt. Have therefore dropped all headlines for the bays and downgraded the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory, which was extended out to 8 am Tuesday. Previous discussion...Headlines remain unchanged this morning. The Gale Warning is in effect until 8 am for the outer waters, where gusts to 35 kt are still common. The inner waters are currently experiencing marginal Small Craft wind gusts, but will leave the SCA as is for now. Both of these will likely be able to be downgraded (or removed in the case of the SCA) with the 6 am update, but will wait to see trends to make a decision. For tonight...gusts of 25 to 30 kt look to be the rule over the outer waters. Inner waters will be marginal, but should mainly be below SCA levels. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Near SCA wv hts ovr outer MZs will begin the short term, then no hdlns xpctd Tue aftn thru Thu eve. Winds an wvs will likely reach SCA criteria again late Thu ngt all MZs and cont into at least Sat morn as SE winds increase ahead of low pres apchg from the Great Lks. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCB Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.