Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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057 FXUS61 KCAR 211414 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 914 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area today. A weak cold front will cross the region tonight. Another high will build north of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will then intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and will move north toward the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM Update...Stratus clouds remain across the area and the forecast remains on track. Raised temps a couple degrees Downeast. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Previous discussion...A weak upper shortwave will traverse across northeast Maine and western New Brunswick this morning. This will produce some isolated snow showers and flurries across northern locations through the mid morning hours. Otherwise cloudy skies are expected today and tonight as high pressure dominates at the surface. Some peeks of sun are possible this afternoon Downeast. Temperatures will remain above normal; today`s highs will range from the mid 30s north to lower 40s along the coast and tonight`s lows will be in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build across to our north on Sunday and remain across the region through Monday. This will keep a light north to northeast flow across the region through the period. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs ranging from the upper 20s to around 30 north and low to mid 30s down east. Lows Sunday night will range from the low teens north and lower 20s downeast. Expect mainly cloudy skies on Monday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 20 north and lower 30s downeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will slowly lift north toward the region Monday night with increasing clouds. Precipitation will start to expand north across central and down east areas Monday night, as warm air aloft overruns colder air near the surface, reaching northern most Maine toward daybreak Tuesday. The low will continue to slowly track north toward the area on Tuesday with precipitation continuing to expand across the area. Abundant moisture is expected to be transported northward from the Atlantic in advance of the low. Across northern areas, expect a mix of snow and sleet to change to freezing rain and sleet during Tuesday. Across central and downeast, expect sleet and freezing rain to change to plain rain later Tuesday. Gusty east winds are expected later Monday night and into Tuesday, especially across down east. Precipitation will continue into Tuesday night and then begin to wind down early Wednesday as the low tracks off to our northeast. It will remain unsettled through mid to late week with mainly cloudy skies and the chance for snow showers, especially across northern and central areas. Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the period. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will prevail at all sites through 21z Sat due to ceilings remaining 1500-2500 ft. Ceilings will lift above 3000 ft at BGR and BHB thereafter and remain so through 12z Sunday, but the remainder of the sites will stay at MVFR through the period. SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs are expected Sunday and Sunday night. VFR conditions expected Monday. Flight conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate from south to north Monday night with IFR expected in developing sleet/fzra. Widespread IFR expected Tuesday and Tuesday night in snow/sleet/fzra northern terminals and in sleet/fzra changing to rain down east terminals. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR as precipitation diminishes later Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure will keep both winds and seas below Small Craft levels today and tonight. No headlines will be needed. SHORT TERM: Wind/seas should remain below small craft advisory levels on Sunday. Winds/seas will begin to increase to small craft advisory levels later Monday and possible to gale force levels by Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hastings/Duda Marine...Hastings/Duda

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