Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 271005 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 605 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 605 AM UPDATE...THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS REMOVED THE POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. ALSO LOWERED THE POPS THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS EVENING. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 400-800 J/KG AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 16-21Z FROM BAXTER STATE PARK NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. DOWN EAST EXPECT A P/SUNNY DAY AFTER SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WIND WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE WEST-EAST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT FAIRLY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE; HIGHS HERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, THOUGH COOLER ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TREKS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY DRY; A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG WILL LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO VLIFR EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 12Z. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN ANY SHOWERS. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. && .CLIMATE... A TOTAL OF 1.24 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT HOULTON YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR 8/26 OF 0.93", SET IN 1982. THE CPC 8-14 DAY...CFSV2...AND HEMISPHERIC MODELS ALL POINT TOWARD AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.