Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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301 FXUS61 KCAR 141150 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 650 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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0645AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW ZERO IN A LARGE PART OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES. THE EXISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F RANGE. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER NIGHT...BUT WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO BECOME CALM AND ALLOW FULL DECOUPLING. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINUS 10 TO MINUS 15F READINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ALLAGASH WILL SEE READINGS CLOSER TO MINUS 20 AND THE COAST WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO MINUS 5 RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SFC RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WL BE BACKING FM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR WRMR TEMPS TO BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGH WL APRCH THE L/M TEENS ACRS THE NORTH TO M20S ALONG THE COAST FOR AFTN MAXES. H5 RIDGE WL BE KEEPING WX AT BAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM IS COMING ONSHORE IN WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 285K LYR PER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING ACRS SRN AND WRN SXNS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS HOLDING OFF ON QPF UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z TUE AND WITH OVERRUNNING SETUP WL ALLOW FOR CHC POPS JUST BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON CWA BY 00Z. WAA ADVECTION WL KICK IN MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE NIGHT. MINS FOR TUE MRNG WL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 00Z BFR H9 WINDS STRENGTHEN TO BTWN 25 AND 30KTS. AFT 06Z TUE EXPECT WIDESPREAD QPF TO BE ONGOING OVR CWA AS LLJ KICKS IN. SIGNIFICANT AMNTS OF WARM AIR BEING DRAWN IN FM THE ATLANTIC WL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSITION FM LIQUID TO FROZEN PCPN THRU THE DAY. LATEST 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM, TRACKS SFC LOW TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY WITH ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST. MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW TRENDING WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW. EXPECT ALL ZONES TO START OFF AS SNOW BY 06Z WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX IN ALONG THE COAST BFR 12Z. BRIEF PD OF -FZRA ACRS CNTRL SXNS ARND 12Z THEN PROGRESSING NORTH FM THERE BFR BCMG ALL RAIN AFT 18Z. THIS SOLN IS A COMPROMISE BTWN 00Z GFS, WHICH TRACKS THE LOW TO OUR WEST, AND 00Z NAM, WHICH BISECTS CWA. EXPECT THAT IF NAM ALSO TRACKS WEST THAT THE TRANSITION WL BE MUCH QUICKER WITH VRY LITTLE SNOWFALL AT THE START. AS IT STANDS NOW JUST MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS ALONG THE COAST WITH ARND 4-6 INCHES ACRS NRN ZONES OVR A 24-HR PD. MAXES ON TUE WL TOP OUT ARND 40F IN THE NORTH TO ARND 50F ALONG THE COAST. THIS LOOKS AS THO IT WL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT OF A RECORD FOR TUE. PCPN WINDS DOWN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z WED AS LOW RAPIDLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE EVENT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN WRAP- AROUND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPR LVL TROF WL SKIRT THRU BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHC SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. H5 RIDGE WL BRING QUIET WX TO THE CWA STARTING FRI MRNG BFR NEXT STORM WINDS UP BACK TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. EVENT FOR SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MIXED PCPN DRG THE DAY THEN SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW OVRNGT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 03Z TUE AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW AND MIXED PCPN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN BHB AND BGR AND ALL SN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. BY 15Z TUE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN WITH NORTHERN TERMINALS TRANSITIONING OVER TO MIXED PCPN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING BFR BECOMING MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: MAY HAVE TO END THE GALE LATER IN THE MORNING AS WINDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...WILL WANT TO SEE THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT WITH AN END TIME AT 10AM. FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON EVNG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS THRU THE END OF THE PD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006- 010-031. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011- 015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR

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