Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211305 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 805 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably warm air mass will be in place across northern and eastern Maine today ahead of a cold front which will cross the area later today into this evening. High pressure will build into the area from the west Thursday and will crest over Maine Friday morning && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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8 am update...The winter weather advisory has been allowed to expire across the north. Radar shows no precipitation at this time and temps are beginning to warm. Surfaces may remain icy for a while into mid morning before the air begins to warm. Previous discussion... A 596 dam ridge at 500H off the South Carolina coast has record high 500H heights for this time of year. Southwest flow aloft around the high will transport a very warm air mass into northern and eastern Maine today ahead of a cold front. The 925H temperatures are expected to peak out +14-18C in the Bangor Region by midday today. Low clouds and fog early in the day will give way to thinning clouds and temperatures certainly have the potential to soar well into the 60s across interior Downeast with low 50s north to Caribou. The cold front will not have much moisture to work with so not expecting more than isolated rain showers. There will still be some pockets of freezing rain in far northeast Maine early this morning. The cold front will push offshore by this evening and a much colder air mass filters into the area with lows around 10 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the 20s Downeast. As the temperatures drop below freezing any standing water will freeze.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in for Thursday and Thursday night with dry weather. Looks like good radiational cooling conditions setting up for Thursday night with the center of the high building right across the cwa, mainly clear skies and light winds. The colder valleys of northern Maine should see temperatures Thursday night falling well below zero. Friday starts with plenty of sunshine as the high moves east but clouds increase by afternoon with some light overunning snow expected to develop from west to east late in the day. High temperatures Friday afternoon will recover to near seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Light overunning precipitation will continue into Friday evening before diminishing after midnight. Precipitation will be mainly in the form of light snow but some freeing rain is possible across down east areas before precipitation ends later Friday night. High pressure builds back in for Saturday. Clouds start to increase later Saturday night and Sunday. The next shot of snow will come later Sunday and Sunday night ahead of the next system. Drier weather will return for early next week. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VLIFR to IFR in low clouds and dense fog early this morning will give way to VFR conditons Downeast by late morning and at the northern terminals by evening. VFR expected tonight. Low level wind shear is expected at the northern terminals from KPQI north to KFVE from late this morning into this afternoon with a wsw wind of 35-40 knots at 2k ft agl. SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday and Thursday night. VFR through early afternoon Friday will give way to developing light snow and IFR conditions. Snow will end early Saturday giving way to VFR. IFR will once again be possible by Sunday in developing snow. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect today and tonight for the coastal waters and intra-coastal waters. SHORT TERM: No headlines expected on the waters Thursday through Friday. Next chance for SCA conditions looks to be && .HYDROLOGY... Warm weather today with highs in the 50s and 60s. This will lead to rapid snow melt. A cold front will quickly sweep across the region later today and this evening sending temperatures back below freezing. No issues other than some ponding of water are expected across the northern portion of the area, but a modest rise in rivers is expected across southern portions of the area, especially across the lower Penobscot basin where some ice movement is possible. Flooding is not expected at this time, but any time ice moves there is the potential that a localized ice jam could form. Users with interests on area rivers across the lower Penobscot watershed should keep a close watch on the river through tonight. && .CLIMATE... A record strong 500H ridge for February off the southeast U.S. coast will send a very warm air mass into northern and eastern Maine today. The all-time record high for February at Bangor is 60F, which was established on February 21, 1937. We are currently forecasting a high of 65F, so the all-time record high is in jeopardy. Here are some other high temperature records that are in jeopardy for for 2/21 along with the forecast high in parenthesis: Houlton: 50F, 1953 (57F) Caribou: 52F, 1994 (50F) && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda Hydrology...CB Climate...CB

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