Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231414 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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&& && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY WEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE AIR BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS AND MODEL TRENDS...WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT NEEDED TO XTND THE SCA FOR OUTER MZS050-051 A FEW MORE HRS BASED ON REPORTED BUOY WV HTS OF 6 TO 7 FT. ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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