Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280525 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 125 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide south of the region overnight. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall. The front will return northward Monday as a warm front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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114 AM Update... Temps were adjusted as low lying areas were dropping into the upper 30s under clear skies. The rest of the CWA was averaging the low to mid 40s. IR satl imagery showed clouds moving across the sw and downeast areas w/another area moving into nw Maine. Adjusted the sky forecast to account for the clouds and used the latest runs of the NAM12 and RAP showing clouds to increase across western and northern areas the rest of the night. Temps in low lying areas will drop a few more degrees before leveling off w/the increasing clouds. Pops were kept as is w/a dry forecast overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cdfnt wl hv stalled out at the beginning of the short term pd acrs cntrl sxns. May see lingering showers mainly from the Central Highlands and north as it lifts back to the north as southerly flow increases ahd of lopres center deepening in the Great Lks. At this point thunder chcs look vry meager and wl just keep shower mention along bndry. H5 ridge progged to be acrs the CWA on Memorial Day. Outside of mocldy skies and cool temps may not see much in the way of rain on Monday as guidance conts build H5 ridge drg the aftn. By 00z Tue ridging begins to break down as H5 low digs thru Ontario with lead s/wv and waa along wmfnt resulting in lgt rain. Temps wl not be warm on Monday under cldy skies with H8 temps only ranging fm +3 to +6C, much lower than Sun. This wl result in temps running 5-8 degrees blo normal for most of the area with low 50s along the coast in onshore flow. Expect a showery/drizzly day in the wake of wmfnt lifting thru Mon night. Showers expected right along the front thru 12z Tue with drizzle and fog in its wake drg the day Tue. However hv just indicated showers drg the day which can be refined as we get closer to this timeframe. Maxes wl be svrl degrees warmer compared to Mon but still well blo normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upr low closed off ovr Canada wl cont to fling wvs at CWA thru the end of the week. Best chc for showers appears to be drg the day in diurnal htg and hv tried to indicate as much. Med range guidance struggling on when low wl kick out into the Maritimes with latest EC indicating Sat while GEM is showing Sun night and GFS the compromise. Either way a typical start to June for the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: VFR on Sunday lowering to MVFR Sun night across northern terminals with possible IFR for BGR and BHB. Expect a very brief period of VFR for southern terminals on Monday before quickly lowering to IFR again Mon night. Will likely see low MVFR/IFR restrictions all terminals into Wed morning before becoming VFR during the day. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate wind grids. For Waves: Expect southerly swell to be the primary wave system through the day Sunday (3-4 feet/10 seconds). Winds will be light so no significant wind wave system is expected. Will use the Nearshore prediction system for waves. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas continue to remain below SCA levels through the middle part of the week. Seas expected to run between 2-4 feet. Areas of fog will form over the waters Mon night . && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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