Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 110414 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1214 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. EXPECT NEAR ZERO POPS THIS PERIOD. FOR WIND GRIDS FRIDAY HAVE USED THE ALL BLEND. FOR THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALONG WITH THREE HOUR AND DEW POINT GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SLIGHTLY MUGGIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON SATURDAY, BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY KICKS NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESS. HOWEVER, GENERALLY WE ARE LOOKING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL MORNING MVFR AND IFR SUNDAY MORNING FOR BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR WITH MOISTER ONSHORE FLOW. MAINLY VFR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: ONSHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM LESS THAN 3 FEET ON SUNDAY TO ABOVE 5 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/FOISY MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/FOISY

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