Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291914 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 314 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE COOL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN. SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS

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