Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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417 FXUS61 KCAR 310748 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 348 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will build into the region Wednesday, and will move east of the area Thursday. Low pressure will pass to the north of the area Friday sending a cold front into the Saint Lawrence River Valley Friday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Today will be continued unseasonably warm ahead of an approaching short wave and associated cold front approaching from Quebec. The airmass ahead of the approaching front is quite moist with dew points early this morning in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. This has led to fog development, especially downeast where areas of fog can be expected through the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly north of the Katahdin region. Not expecting anything severe since soundings indicate a cap around 10kft, which should limit storm growth potential. That being said, the wind field aloft is quite strong and if storms managed to break through the cap damaging wind gusts would certainly possible with any storms. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s across the north and low to mid 80s central and downeast. The cold front will reach the coast early this evening with skies becoming mainly clear overnight. A much drier air mass will filter into the region behind the front tonight with dew points falling into the low to mid 40s, making for a rather comfortable sleeping night. Low temperatures by morning will range from the mid 40s to around 50 north and low to mid 50s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Wednesday is shaping up the be the nicest day of the week. A fresh Canadian air mass will move into Maine as a sfc high builds out of Quebec and into the region. There will be plenty of sunshine and comfortably low humidity as dew points will mostly be in the mid to upper 30s across far northern Maine to the 40s across the Downeast region. Highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest across interior Downeast. The surface high retreats in the Maritimes Wednesday night with the low level flow turning onshore. This will likely lead to areas of marine stratus and patchy fog that may move onshore, especially after midnight and into Thursday morning. Confidence is not high as to whether this marine layer will work north into Bangor and the upslope areas of the central highlands. Low pressure moving out of Ontario is expected to pass just south of James Bay by late in the day Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will be coolest along the coast and warmest well inland. It is expected to be a dry day with the possible exception of spotty early morning drizzle in a few spots along and near the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A surface low passing south of James Bay Thursday evening moves into northern Quebec Friday with a cold front to push into the Saint Lawrence Valley by late in the day. Friday will be a cloudy and more humid day with some showers around. Clouds and showers will keep temps on the cool side with areas along the coast likely to not get out of the 50s, and possibly across the central highlands and far northern maine too, if the cloud cover is dense enough. Once the front pushes through Friday evening a mainly dry weekend is expected, but the model do diverge a bit later in the weekend with the ECMWF bringing in a low from the southwest and the chance of showers by Sunday afternoon. A +PNA/-NAO pattern takes shape for the first half of next week with ridging across the western conus with a trough in the east. This will lead to an unsettled pattern with clouds and showers at times. Temperatures will likely be below average for highs, but not all that cool at night owing to cloud cover.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Areas of fog can be expected this morning with LIFR/VLIFR conditions expected thru about 12z at KBGR/KBHB. Elsewhere, expect MVFR and local IFR in patchy fog at the northern terminals. Conditions should improve to VFR all terminals by, or shortly after 12z. Expect sct showers and even an isld tstm at the northern terminals this afternoon. With any storms expected to be isld in nature, will not mention in TAF. All terminals will be VFR tonight with north winds 5 to 10 kt. SHORT TERM: Vfr at all northern and eastern Maine terminals Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Conditions may lower to ifr late Wed night into Thu morning in marine stratus and patchy fog, mainly at the Downeast terminals. Conditions will likely improve to mvfr in the afternoon. More low stratus and ifr are possible Thursday night at the Downeast terminals, with vfr to at times mvfr in sct -shra Fri. Predominately vfr Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should generally remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Visibility may be reduced to 1 nm or less in areas of fog this morning then become unlimited. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Wednesday through Friday. The visibility maybe reduced at times in fog late Wednesday night through Friday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/CB Marine...Duda/CB

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