Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222027 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 427 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds across the region from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure will persist to the southwest of New England and continue to build tonight into Saturday. Expect clouds from Jose to persist along coastal areas until late this evening but skies over the remainder of the forecast area are expected to remain mostly clear. Temperatures are expected to be much warmer Saturday as high pressure to the southwest continues to build. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models showed good run to run continuity from prev model runs thru Sun erly aftn, but aftwrds, very poor continuity from late Sun aftn into erly next week. Chgs include an earlier back door cold front from late Sun aftn across the N to Sun eve Downeast. Also, models indicate enough hi llvl dwpts upwards to mid to upper 60s for possible isold to sct tstms Sun aftn and erly eve across Nrn and Ern ptns of the Rgn as the front crosses thru, so we added this to the fcst. Not enough confidence to mention any enhanced wording due to relatively stable mid lvl lapse rates and dry antecedent ground moisture that could result in more mixing of slightly drier air from alf on Sun, lowering aftn dwpts and the potential of cnvctn initiation...so this fcst for isold-sct tstms Sun aftn is a middle ground apch for now. After mild ovrngt lows Sat ngt and erly morn patchy fog Sun morn due to increasingly humid air, hi temps will apch or exceed record hi temps at some lctns (see climate section of disc) as fcst max aftn 925mb temps reach the the lower to mid 20s C. With llvl cool advcn with NE to E winds Sun ngt, we removed the mention of patchy fog late Sun ngt. Mon will be ptly to msly sunny, but at this point, not as warm as Sun, although still sig abv normal for this tm of season. Temps will climb more quickly toward hi temps Mon aftn as the front returns back toward Wrn ptns of the FA as a warm front late in the day and Mon eve. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Longer range models are now indicating Tue to be dry and much warmer than thought to be ystdy attm. For now, given the run to run uncertainty of the models, we did raise hi temps considerably for Tue, but not as much as what current dtmnstc 12z models like the ECMWF and GFS are implying. We will adjust hi temps Tue upwards in later updates based on a stable model trend. Otherwise, both the dtmnstc 12z GFS and ECMWF are also faster by 6 to 9 hrs with the next major cold frontal system and associated upper trof for later Wed into Thu morn than shown for ystdy attm. We did raise hi temps a few deg F for Wed aftn ahead of the leading edge of shwrs. Speaking of shwrs, there was enough fcst SBCAPEs to mention aftn/eve tstms across the N hlf of the FA. Shwrs will cont late Wed ngt into Thu morn before ending Thu aftn well behind the cold front, with Nrn ptns of the FA potentially receiving about a half inch downwards to a quarter inch or less Downeast. Temps will be definitely returning to more normal values Thu ngt and Fri under mdtly strong llvl cool advcn with SC cld cvr persisting longest across the N. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR Next 24 hours. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with IFR vsbys and clgs possible with fog late Tue ngt msly ovr Downeast sites and MVFR clgs and vsbys at any TAF site with any tstm or heavier shwrs later Wed aftn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids, however there is still a strong inversion resulting from the relatively cold sea surface temperature. Therefore have reduced the wind speeds from the NAM by 20 percent to adjust for high bias. For Waves: Currently long period swell from Jose (6-7 feet/11 seconds) is still entering the Gulf of Maine and is still the primary wave system. This wave system will continue to subside tonight into Saturday. Expect the wave spectrum to become more bi-modal later tonight as long period swell from Jose subsides and the northeasterly wind wave system persists and may become the primary wave group late tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave grids but will lower model wave heights by 1 foot to adjust for high bias resulting from cold sea surface temperature. Will extend the SCA until 0600Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM TERM: Initially no hdlns will be needed Sat ngt thru Sun ngt, but long pd swell wv hts will increase back into the SCA range possibly as erly as Mon and cont thru mid week as Maria moves Nwrd into the open Atlc to E of Cape Hatteras. Beach hi surf and rip current potential will likely become high again by Tue aftn or so. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts with wv pds fcst again in the 12 to 16 sec range. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 11 seconds/6-7 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to to slowly subside Tonight and Saturday. Gerling/Hanson plots from NWPS Model indicate that the long period wave group will fall below 5 feet/10 seconds late tonight, so will extend the high surf advisory until 0600Z Tonight. Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible however Runup, splashover, flooding due to storm surge are not expected. && .CLIMATE... Record high temps are possible at Bangor and Houlton Saturday afternoon and at multiple locations Sunday afternoon. Current records for these dates are: Saturday September 23rd Bangor........80 deg set in 1989 Houlton.......84 deg set in 1965 Sunday September 24th Caribou.......80 deg set in 1958 Bangor........88 deg set in 1930 Houlton.......81 deg set in 1958 Millinocket...86 deg set in 1920 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Mignone/VJN Marine...Mignone/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...TM Climate...VJN

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