Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260246 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1046 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the south overnight and Wednesday. The low will dissipate while moving away to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Update... Rain will occur across the forecast area overnight while low pressure slowly lifts along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Patchy fog will also develop. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 north, to the lower 40s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and rain chances. Previous Discussion... Rain will spread from south to north ahead of a large and moist but weakening storm system approaching from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rain will reach moderate intensity Downeast, but only be mainly light rain across the north late tonight into Wednesday. Drier air and upper level ridging across the north will cause the rain to diminish and taper off over northern areas Wednesday afternoon. However, rain will continue Downeast, possibly heavy in some areas over eastern Downeast locations. Northern areas will remain cloudy with some lingering patchy drizzle possible Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure is expected to weaken off the New England coast Wednesday night. A cold font will approach from the west during the day Thursday then move across the region during the day Friday. Showers are expected through this period as the frontal system moves through the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build in from the northwest during the day Saturday and crest over the region Sunday. Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Monday then continue to move northward into Canada. A cold front will approach from the west and move across the State Tuesday. Showers are expected on Wednesday as low pressure passes to the north. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels, from south to north, across the region overnight with similar conditions persisting Wednesday. SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. MVFR conditions are expected Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters overnight through Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog overnight through Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for the sustained winds. For Waves: A long southerly fetch develops for the Gulf of Maine southward during the day Wednesday. This fetch is expected to persist through the day Thursday then weaken with diminishing winds Friday. Expect waves to build to maximum of 10 to 11 feet/10-11 seconds Wednesday Night. Waves are then expected to subside Thursday and Friday as winds across the fetch area diminish but expect the long period southeasterly wave system to persist into the weekend due to the long fetch distance. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for wave grids through Friday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The highest astronomical tides of the month are expected over the next several days in conjunction with a new moon Thursday. Meanwhile near shore wave heights are expected to build to around 8 feet Wednesday Night. At the current time the combination of waves and astronomical tide do not appear sufficient to produce any significant runup and overtopping, although some minor beach erosion is possible. This is supported by experimental runup guidance. In addition wind speeds over the next several days do not appear strong enough to produce any coastal flooding. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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