Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180447 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS MORNING EXPIRE. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...
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UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES. THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT TO THE RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS < 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006- 011-015. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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