Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 041423 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE. FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES <0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER MODEL GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT, EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET. SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.