Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271745 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1245 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM UPDATE: CLD CVR WAS REDUCED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AFTN...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS ADJUSTED INTO ERLY EVE...WITH NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO AFTN FCST HI TEMPS THIS UPDATE. ORGNL DISC: STRATUS DECK HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IS RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. TENTATIVELY EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER ABOUT MID MORNING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY WAS ALSO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED. TONIGHT, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO COME EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER US IN THE EARLY EVENING, THEN IT MOVES EAST AND LOOK FOR CLOUDS THICKENING FAST AFTER ABOUT 8 PM AND TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF. A WEAK, FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING JUST NORTH OF US LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WRAP UP PRETTY QUICKLY BY ABOUT 7 AM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN FROM BANGOR SOUTH, MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, AND A MIX IN BETWEEN WITH THE AIRMASS WARMING ALOFT THROUGH THE EVENT LEADING TO A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, AND PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE EVENT, OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUCH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FAIRLY EASILY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY BREEZE, AND EXPECT THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE TO MAKE IT UP TO AROUND PRESQUE ISLE TOWARD THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHOT AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. AGAIN, OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY MINOR EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXITING LOW. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN FROM BANGOR SOUTH, MOSTLY SNOW FROM CARIBOU NORTH, AND A MIX IN BETWEEN. IFR APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES, WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE EASED IN THE WATERS, THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A WEST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. HOWEVER, ISSUED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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