Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 172313 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. High pressure will build toward the region Thursday and Friday. A warm front will approach from the southwest early Saturday followed by a cold front later Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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610 pm update... Hv boosted snowfall totals up by an addnl inch or two acrs Downeast zones. Moderate to heavy snow still falling along the coast and into interior Downeast areas with back edge mvg slower than originally suggested and hv adjusted pops higher for the next hr or two. Tight gradient exists on northern edge of snow but hv retained mention of isold snow showers/flurries acrs the far north tonight as upr lvl vort appchs. No other chgs needed with this update. Prev discussion blo... We were able to drop zone 31 from the NW ptn of the wntr wx adv area with the more sig accumulating snfl zone displaced just ESE. Otherwise, wntr stm wrngs ovr coastal Downeast areas and wntr wx advs ovr interior Downeast and E Cntrl areas will cont at least into erly eve, at which point models indicate steady snfl winding down quickly by mid eve, meaning hdlns may be able to be dropped prior to 11 pm. Additional snfl prior to hdln termination will range from 1 to 2 inches across the NW ptn of the adv area to at least 2 to 4 inches ovr the wrng area. Elsewhere across the N, a wedge of dry air has so invaded, that the potential of any additional stratiform snfl is doubtful across this ptn of the Rgn. What we did to mitigate the low potential of any lgt accumulating snfl across the N was to keep a mention of sct sn shwrs into the eve, but 6 hrly snfl totals ovr this ptn of the Rgn has been substantially lowered compared to the beginning of the shift erly this morn. Otherwise, all sn and and sn shwrs will taper to sct flurries and end from W to E late tngt with at least partial clrg by daybreak Thu with milder ovrngt lows than last ngt. Whats left of llvl arctic air across Nrn ptns of the FA erly Thu morn will already be retreating nwrd by Thu aftn allowing for fairly mild aftn hi temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds across region Thursday night and Friday with fair weather and near seasonal temperatures. Despite light winds Thursday night, doesn`t look like ideal radiational cooling conditions since we should begin to see increasing high clouds later Thursday night. Low pressure will track east across Quebec province Friday night drawing a warm front toward the region. Expect increasing clouds with the chance of some light snow across the far north and St. John Valley after midnight Friday with the passage of the warm front. Outside of any early morning light snow across the north, skies will be mainly cloudy Saturday as a cold front crosses the region during the afternoon. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will rise to above normal levels before the passage of the front later Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A secondary cold front will begin to cross the region Saturday night through Sunday. Expect partly to mainly cloudy skies Saturday night and partly sunny skies on Sunday. Couldn`t rule out some isolated snow showers across the far north with the passage of the front. High pressure will begin to build in Sunday night through Monday with continued fair weather and cooler temperatures. Low pressure will approach on Tuesday with the next chance of precipitation as low pressure tracks to our northwest. Precipitation type still uncertain as there are indications that a secondary low will develop. Just where this secondary low develops will determine precipitation type. At this time, looks as if precipitation will start as snow across the region later Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Depending on the where the secondary low develops, there could be a mix or even a change to all rain, especially across down east. Drier weather returns for late week. Temperatures by the middle of next week will be a bit above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR expected at CAR and PQI next 24 hours. FVE may experience MVFR cigs briefly overnight before becoming VFR after 07z. HUL expecting IFR thru 04z in -sn. BGR and BHB will see IFR/LIFR this evening before improving to MVFR after 02z (BGR) and 06z (BHB). Conds improve to VFR between 08z and 10z at southern terminals. SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday night through Friday night. IFR/MVFR is possible across the far north well after midnight Friday through early Saturday. Mainly VFR expected Saturday night through Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain msly just below SCA thresholds tngt and Thu. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS wv model blend for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are possible early Thursday evening, otherwise no headlines expected through Friday. Small craft conditions and possibly minimal gales can be expected Friday night into Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ011-015-016-032. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ017- 029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/VJN Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Duda Marine...Farrar/VJN/Duda

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