Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170836 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE- PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME... SPCLY LATE AT NGT. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT... THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ003>006-010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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