Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231424 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 924 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 0920 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE 00Z UA INDICATED WAA UNDERWAY PER THE 850MBS ANALYSIS. A JETSTREAK OF 45 KTS AT 700MBS WILL SWEEP FROM CENTRAL CANADA EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH 700MBS W/DECENT FORCING. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS NORTH OF THE MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 60% MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND AROOSTOOK COUNTY. QPF IS FORECAST TO BE AT BEST AROUND 0.10 INCHES. SNOW RATIOS OF AT LEAST 12:1 COULD YIELD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, GENERALLY SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY W/DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT W/READINGS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACOSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONES 16...17 AND 32..WHERE A SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND JUST RAIN ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY DUE TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA...CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE STORM TRACK OUT OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA MAINLY DRY AND COLD DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR TODAY AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/PERIODS OF IFR. KBGR AND KBHB LOOKS TO STAY VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH LIFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC REGION. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT CLOSELY W/BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A RANGE OF 4 TO 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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